Revisiting Bold 2025 Predictions: What’s Really Happening in Greenville’s Real Estate Market?

It’s been a wild ride in Greenville’s real estate world this year—and we’re only halfway through. In his much-anticipated mid-year check-in, realtor and podcast host Stan McCune returns to his bold 2025 predictions to see just how well they’re holding up. Spoiler alert: some are holding steady, a few completely missed the mark, and others? Well, they’re unfolding in real time with some fascinating surprises.

If you’re a homeowner, buyer, investor, or just trying to understand the pulse of the market in the Upstate, this episode delivers a candid look behind the curtain—without the sugarcoating.

A Mid-Year Reality Check on Real Estate Predictions

From mortgage rates to inventory trends and buyer behavior, Stan broke down all ten of his bold real estate predictions from earlier this year. Here’s how they’re stacking up so far:

Revisiting Bold 2025 Predictions & What’s Really Happening in the Market

1. Mortgage Rates: Still Over 6%?

Stan kicked off 2025 with a strong stance: mortgage rates would not dip below 6% all year. And so far? Nailed it. Not only have they stayed above 6%, they’ve even crept past 7% a couple of times, according to Mortgage News Daily.

There’s been no shortage of online noise about rates falling, and yes, Stan’s had to deal with a few trolls for sharing public mortgage data. But despite the chatter, the numbers don’t lie—rates are still hovering around 6.75%, and unless there’s a surprise recession, that number’s not budging anytime soon.

“It would take probably a recession, quite frankly, in our economy for that number to go below 6% by the end of the year.”

2. A Recession and 2% Inflation? Not Quite, But Maybe Close

Back in January, Stan predicted no recession and a return to 2% inflation by the fourth quarter. As of now, he’s cautiously optimistic. The economy’s in a weird place—technically strong, but with a few red flags (like government jobs propping up employment reports).

On inflation, using the PCE index (one of the Fed’s favorites), we’re sitting at 2.3%. That’s a solid drop from earlier in the year, but whether it’ll land right at 2% by year-end is still uncertain. Still, the trajectory seems promising.

3. Any Major Changes for Realtors?

This one’s mostly playing out as predicted. Stan anticipated it would be “business as usual” in 2025, with one notable exception: changes to paperwork from the South Carolina Association of Realtors. And that’s exactly what’s happened.

The National Association did introduce a “third way” to list homes—kind of a halfway point between full MLS listings and office exclusives—but many MLSs aren’t adopting it. It’s a change, sure, but not a game-changer. The bigger impact has come from paperwork tweaks, which Stan believes are mostly positive and helpful refinements after last year’s massive changes.

4. Home Appreciation: Flat But On Track

Stan predicted we’d see somewhere between -1% to +2% home appreciation this year. So far, we’re sitting right around 0%. It’s a tight window, but he’s still in the ballpark. However, if mortgage rates drop more significantly, prices could climb faster than expected, pushing appreciation beyond his range.

5. GGAR Membership: A Surprise Increase

This one caught Stan off guard. He predicted a dip in Greater Greenville Association of Realtors (GGAR) membership—from 5,090 at the start of the year. But instead, membership has grown to 5,186.

Being on the board of directors himself, Stan admits this trend surprised even him. While there could still be seasonal dips later in the year, right now it’s clear: more agents are joining, not leaving.

6. Inventory: The Big Miss

One prediction that didn’t hold up? Inventory trends. Stan expected month-over-month increases to slow by March, with year-over-year increases peaking by June or July. But reality had other plans.

Inventory has continued to surge monthly, with noticeable year-on-year gains. In Stan’s words, the inventory situation has “exploded.” And that’s affecting the feel of the market in a big way.

“Why does it feel soft? [...] There's so much data that indicates it’s a strong market for sellers, but this inventory is the story.”

Buyers are seeing more options, and sellers—especially in resale—are feeling more competition from new construction.

7. Pending Sales vs. Closed Sales

Stan predicted consistent year-over-year increases in pending sales for every month in 2025. It held true for the first quarter, but April and May broke the streak with negative numbers.

Interestingly, closed sales have remained positive across the board. The reason? Buyers and sellers are now more motivated to keep deals together. Repairs are being negotiated, deals aren’t falling apart as often, and the market is reaching a new kind of balance—not quite a seller’s market, but certainly not a buyer’s market either.

8. Cash Transactions Still Hold Strong

Another solid win for Stan: he estimated 21–23% of sales would be cash transactions. So far? We’re at 21.69%—right on target.

9. Development Restrictions From Greenville County Council

This one’s more nuanced, but Stan gave himself the point. While the county hasn’t said “no” to development outright, they have introduced impact fees and proposed stricter rules, especially around septic and infrastructure.

His take? These decisions are well-intentioned, but they risk short-sighted consequences.

“Everyone wants there to be more cool things to do in Greenville... but for there to be more cool things to do, there have to be more workers. Where are those workers going to live?”

10. Will Sellers Stop Paying Buyer Agents? Not Really

There’s been buzz ever since commission rules changed, but in practice? Most sellers are still covering buyer agent commissions. Stan shared a rare case where a buyer initially wanted to go unrepresented—only to quickly realize they needed an agent after all.

Real estate is too complex these days to go it alone. Buyers see the value in having representation, and sellers usually understand that offering commission means more buyers at the table.

Final Thoughts: 7 Out of 10 Ain’t Bad

Looking back, Stan's hitting a solid 70% success rate on his bold predictions so far. That’s a big improvement from last year—and not bad considering these aren’t safe bets. They’re “bold” for a reason.

More than anything, this episode offers a real-time look at how Greenville’s market is evolving. From rising inventory and stable rates to deeper conversations about development, the housing landscape is shifting in meaningful ways.

As Stan reminds us: real estate isn’t just about the numbers—it’s about interpreting trends, adapting to the unexpected, and staying grounded in the local pulse.

Stay informed and ahead of the market,

—Ien Araneta - Editor of the Selling Greenville Podcast

Thinking About Buying or Selling in Greenville?

Stan McCune is a local realtor with boots-on-the-ground knowledge and a straight-talking style. Whether you're navigating your first sale or investing in your next property, you can reach him directly at (973) 479-1267 or via email at smccune@cdanjoyner.com.

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Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville