When Is the Next Real Estate Crash Coming?

There’s a persistent split-screen in housing conversations right now. On one side are the “data people,” pointing to the numbers and saying there’s nothing flashing red. On the other side are the “doom-vibes” takes predict a dramatic collapse any minute now. The latest episode of Selling Greenville (recorded late on a Monday night, no less) tackled both camps head-on, sticking to what can be supported by the transcript’s data, how demand has actually behaved, and which timeline makes sense if a real downturn does show up.

Next Real Estate Crash Timing

That’s the long-tail question at the center of this episode: the next real estate crash timing. The host doesn’t buy the idea that the market is about to crumble just because mortgage rates rose. But he also doesn’t pretend crashes never happen. Instead, he circles a timeframe—late in the decade—based on generational demand, not just interest-rate vibes. The path from “now” to “then” hinges on who’s buying homes today and who won’t be buying them several years from now.

The two camps—and why data still wins

The transcript lays out two well-trodden narratives:

• Data-first camp: Looking across indicators, there isn’t current evidence of a crash. There was a real estate recession last year (demand sank when rates spiked), but it didn’t produce a “climactic” price plunge. No 20–40% slide materialized, and delinquency/foreclosure activity remains low by the transcript’s account.

• Vibes-first camp: Certain social accounts and commentaries insist a housing crash is “inevitable,” sometimes hinging on extreme claims (like institutional owners suddenly controlling a massive share of homes). The show pushes back, noting these arguments typically aren’t grounded in the data discussed.

The episode plants its flag: data says “not now.” Still, that’s not the same as “never.”

Rates matter—but demand matters more

The transcript acknowledges what everyone has felt for three years: mortgage rates throttle demand. Lower rates juiced demand; higher rates tamped it down. Recently, the host observed rates in the high 6s to low 7s—levels the market has seen before. In the late ‘90s and early 2000s, the U.S. ran on sixes and sevens without a generalized, rate-driven home price collapse.

The episode references two broad markers:

• St. Louis Fed series on 30-year fixed rates: A reminder that today’s levels weren’t unthinkable in prior eras.

• A home-price index (cited as Black Knight in the transcript): In the late ‘90s, appreciation ran near ~5% annually; right now, a recent year-over-year figure cited was ~0.8%. The takeaway: price growth has cooled dramatically, but it is ≠ crashing.

So yes, rates influence demand. But sustained demand is the bigger engine, and that’s where the transcript spends most of its time—on generations.

Why Demand has been Unusually Strong

The pandemic didn’t just usher in cheap money; it synchronized three buying cohorts at once:

1. Millennials surged into the market (many became first-time owners during this period).

2. Gen X remained highly active—often at peak or just post-peak buying age.

3. Baby Boomers turned into power buyers—cash-rich and highly mobile.

About Boomers:

• In 2023, 39% of buyers were Baby Boomers, eclipsing Millennials for the first time in years, according to the data cited on the show.

• Boomers, as a generation, were described as sitting on an unusually large share of the nation’s personal financial assets and responsible for a disproportionately large chunk of consumer spending.

• Their housing behavior has changed: instead of reflexively “downsizing,” many want space for kids and grandkids, or they relocate to be near family. That keeps them engaged buyers at ages when prior cohorts often stayed put.

Together, those three groups created a demand stack. Even when rates jumped, the market didn’t break the way doomers predicted, because that multilayer demand kept things from unraveling.

The transcript’s big thesis: watch the late 2020s

Here’s where the next real estate crash timing argument emerges from the episode:

• By 2029, every last Baby Boomer will be at or past traditional retirement age. Around that same time, the average boomer will be ~80, an age where housing activity typically slows—especially striking now because boomers have been unusually active.

• Gen X will sit in a “stay put” life chapter—late 50s to early 60s. Many won’t be downsizing (downsizing is less common now), and some will bide their time until grandkids enter the picture.

• Gen Z won’t be able to replace Boomer demand by then. In 2029, the oldest Gen Zers will be around 32. The transcript cites 36 as the current average age of first-time buyers, a number that has climbed; under-35 homeownership was around 39% in the most recent snapshot the episode noted (vs. ~43% pre-Great Recession). Put differently, Gen Z—without parental help—will still be ramping, not dominating demand.

That leaves Millennials as the main driver through the latter part of this decade. With Boomers fading as a purchasing force and Gen X largely steady, aggregate demand could weaken—even without a severe rate shock.

What “slower” could look like (and what could tip it)

The show offers two possibilities:

1. Base case for the late 2020s: Appreciation slows as buyer counts dip. Fewer shoppers, fewer bidding wars, more patience. Not a forecast of falling prices—just less heat.

2. Downside case: If that demand cool-down coincides with a major recession or other negative shock (the transcript mentions that could be anything from a traditional downturn to broader instability), a price decline—like the 2007–2012 era—becomes more plausible. Not guaranteed, but that’s the setup the episode wants listeners to understand.

Today, delinquencies/foreclosures are low in the transcript’s view, so a wave of distressed supply isn’t “in the room.” But the host flags that within five years there could be more foreclosures than we’re seeing now—something to watch as we move toward the end of the decade.

Why “crash now” facts

The doom trade requires a near-term catalyst. In this episode’s framework, that catalyst isn’t there:

• Rates are elevated, but not unprecedented.

• The market already absorbed a rate shock; it produced a transaction recession, not a price collapse.

• Boomers’ cash-based buying has cushioned the higher-rate era.

• The under-35 homeownership rate popped up to ~39% in the easy-money window and, while it may drift down again, Millennials remain a large, engaged cohort.

Could near-term prices slip here or there? Sure—markets breathe. But the transcript’s case is that structural demand—not rate volatility alone—has been the difference between a slowdown and a crash.

The calendar that actually matters

Zoom out, and the next real estate crash timing premise rests more on generational math than guessing headlines:

• Now—mid-decade: Three-cohort demand still props up the market, with Boomers unusually influential.

• Late decade (~2028–2029): Boomer buying likely fades; Gen X steadies; Gen Z isn’t yet a full counterweight. If something macro breaks, then prices could finally decline in a meaningful way. If not, expect slower appreciation rather than fireworks.

  
  

That’s not doomer talk. It’s an attempt—in the spirit of the episode—to replace vibes with a timeline tied to who’s actually buying homes.

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Bottom Line

The episode doesn’t forecast an imminent collapse. It argues that the next real estate crash timing—if one happens—lines up with a generational handoff at the end of the decade. Boomers, who currently account for a striking share of purchases and hold a large portion of personal financial assets, won’t be the same force by 2029. Gen X is likely to be steady, not hyperactive, and Gen Z won’t yet be able to replace Boomer demand at scale. In that world, appreciation can slow on demographics alone—and if a major economic shock lands on top of that, a true price decline becomes more likely. Until then, the transcript’s message is simple: respect the data, watch the demographics, and don’t confuse cooling with crashing.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville