2024 Mid-Year Bold Predictions Review

Every year brings its own surprises, but 2024 seems to have taken that idea personally. Halfway through, it’s clear that the housing market has a mind of its own — steady where it was supposed to stumble, unpredictable where it was meant to stabilize.

Back in January, a set of bold predictions set the stage for what the Upstate might expect. Now, at the midpoint of the year, it’s time to see which of those forecasts aged well… and which ones belong in the recycling bin.

How 2024 Bold Predictions Are Holding Up

Bold predictions are exactly that — bold. They’re made to stretch logic, test data, and invite a bit of humility when reality has other plans. At the year’s start, ten big calls were made about interest rates, inventory, sales, and more. Some are holding up beautifully. Others? Not so much. (Let’s just say the crystal ball could use a firmware update.)

Prediction 1: The Fed Would Cut Rates in the Second Quarter

Well, that didn’t happen. Not even close.

Despite early optimism, the Fed has yet to make a single rate cut this year. Mortgage rates continue to hover around familiar territory, and the “higher for longer” phrase has become the catchphrase of 2024.

While many expected a soft pivot by spring, stronger-than-expected labor data, a robust stock market, and sticky inflation kept rate cuts on the sidelines. The earliest we may see movement? Possibly November — assuming politics doesn’t muddy the waters first. (And in an election year, that’s a big “if.”)

Prediction 2: No Recession in 2024

Now this one looks solid.

So far, economic growth has held steady. Job numbers remain strong, inflation continues its slow descent, and consumers — despite grumbling — are still spending. While some economists insist on redefining what a “recession” means, the general consensus is clear: we’re not in one.

If anything, the U.S. may be flirting with the elusive “soft landing” economists dreamed about two years ago — where inflation cools without tipping the economy into contraction. Greenville’s real estate market reflects that same gentle balance: slower, but steady.

Prediction 3: Mortgage Rates Would Stay in the Sixes

Close, but no cigar.

Rates have stubbornly remained in the sevens for most of 2024, refusing to dip into the high sixes for any meaningful stretch. The forecast assumed a slightly faster easing cycle that never materialized. Instead, rates bobbed like a cork in choppy water — rising and falling on rumors, economic data, and Fed statements.

So, this one earns an “L.” (But hey, if predicting interest rates were easy, we’d all be billionaires by now.)

Prediction 4: Inventory Would Stay Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Not anymore.

After years of tight supply, the floodgates are opening — just a little. Inventory has now climbed back to pre-pandemic territory, thanks to more sellers entering the market while some buyers wait for rates to drop.

The result? A 25% increase in available listings so far this year. Homes are taking a touch longer to sell, but not dramatically so. For buyers who’ve been waiting on the sidelines, this is welcome news. For sellers, it means pricing smartly matters again.

Prediction 5: Pending Sales Would Fall in Q1, Then Recover

Almost right — but flipped.

Instead of dropping early, pending sales actually rose in the first quarter. That caught nearly everyone off guard, as demand stayed surprisingly resilient despite high rates.

Now, as the year progresses, pending sales may cool slightly heading into fall. If the trend holds, this prediction could end up half-right — and half-wrong (the kind of split decision that makes real estate forecasting feel like guessing the weather).

Prediction 6: Days on Market Would Stay Under 60

Finally, a win.

Despite some seasonal spikes, homes in the Greater Greenville area have consistently sold in under two months. February came close to the 60-day mark at 57, but since then, averages have trended down to around 46.

That’s impressive resilience — especially in a year defined by higher mortgage costs and shifting buyer psychology. Greenville’s steady demand continues to keep homes moving, even when other markets are cooling.

Prediction 7: Single-Family Closings Would Rise Slightly

Spot on — and then some.

Year-to-date, single-family closings are up about 5.6% compared to last year. That’s stronger than expected and well above the predicted 0–3% growth range. While things could slow in the year’s second half (they usually do), the momentum so far has been unmistakably positive.

Greenville’s growth streak may not be explosive, but it’s consistent — a sign of health, not hype.

Prediction 8: Multifamily Sales Would Top 100 for the Year

At this pace, that’s a near certainty.

By the end of June, 61 multifamily closings had already taken place — more than halfway to the century mark. Even if activity slows later this year, crossing that threshold for the first time looks well within reach.

That milestone underscores Greenville’s evolving landscape. As affordability challenges persist, more developers and buyers are looking toward multifamily opportunities as a sustainable path forward (because who needs a white picket fence when you can share a wall and split the Wi-Fi bill?).

Prediction 9: Foreclosures Would Rise Slightly but Stay Low

Another accurate call (finally, one for the win column).

Foreclosures have ticked up — but only slightly (more of a polite knock than a full-on door slam). A handful now appear each month, which is more than in recent years but still nowhere near crisis territory. In fact, Greenville’s foreclosure activity remains far below pre-2020 norms.

The takeaway? Homeowners are largely holding steady. Many have enough equity or refinancing options to avoid distress sales. And while investors once built entire businesses around flipping foreclosures, those days are long gone (for now).

Prediction 10: Median Prices Would Rise 3–6%

This one’s still unfolding.

Early in the year, price growth tracked right in the sweet spot—around 3–4%. But by April and May, appreciation had cooled to around 2%, even flattening in some areas.

The next few months will decide whether this prediction holds. If the market stabilizes through the fall, that 3% annual rise could still happen. If rates remain high and seasonal slowdowns stack up, it may land closer to 1–2%.

Either way, Greenville prices have held firm—no major drop-offs, just slower growth. (Think cruise control, not free fall.)

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Bottom Line

At midyear, the scoreboard shows a mixed bag—some predictions nailed, others missed, and a few still in play. But that’s the beauty of real estate forecasting: it’s equal parts data, instinct, and humility.

The market keeps proving that Greenville doesn’t dance to the national tune. While other cities wrestle with volatility, the Upstate continues to show its trademark steadiness — no boom, no bust, just balance (basically the “Goldilocks zone” of real estate — not too hot, not too cold, just right).

So, as 2024 heads into its second half, one thing’s certain: Greenville’s story is still unfolding, and it’s a page-turner worth watching (the kind where you keep saying “just one more chapter” and suddenly it’s midnight).

Even if the predictions don’t always get a perfect score, the plot twists sure keep things interesting.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville