As Home Prices Go Up, What Happens to Rental Rates?
- Jan 5, 2022
- 4 min read
Some questions start as a hunch. This one began in a landlord’s ledger. In this episode of Selling Greenville, host Stan McCune—an Upstate realtor who also owns both short-term and long-term rentals—asked a simple, high-stakes question: as purchase prices surge, are rental rates keeping up? Rather than rely on instinct, he pulled real numbers from a single neighborhood with plenty of data: Chartwell Estates in Greer. What he found flips a common assumption on its head. Sale prices, especially on a per-square-foot basis, have raced ahead, while rents have moved more modestly—and the typical rental has actually gotten smaller.
Greenville Rental Rates vs Rising Home Prices
What Happens to Rental Rates? : To keep the analysis clear and comparable, Stan looked at 2019 and the last six months of 2021 using Greenville MLS data. Chartwell Estates made sense for the study: about 360 homes, steady sales and rentals, a desirable school district, a community pool, and easy access to both Greenville and Spartanburg. He didn’t filter out townhomes from single-family homes since both were fairly represented in the data.
The goal was to see how Greenville rental rates compared to rising home prices, focusing on rent levels, sale prices, and price per square foot.
What Happened to Rents
In 2019, homes in Chartwell Estates rented for an average of $1,675 per month, with a median of $1,600. The average rental was around 3.67 bedrooms and 2.25 bathrooms, with the median showing roughly 3.5 beds and 2.5 baths.
In the last six months of 2021, the average rent was $1,717 per month, a 6.81% increase from 2019, while the median rent rose to about $1,700–$1,750 per month, roughly a 9.38% increase. However, the average home size rented dropped to 3.4 bedrooms and 2 baths, with the median home at 3 bedrooms and 2 baths.
That means renters are paying a bit more—but for smaller homes.
For three-bedroom homes, the average rent in 2019 was $1,498 and the median $1,495. In 2021, the average increased slightly to $1,574, while the median stayed about the same. Four-bedroom homes averaged $1,716 in 2019 and $1,772 in 2021, a small 3–4% increase. Many of those homes also lost half-baths, suggesting the homes were smaller overall.
Rents have gone up slightly, but the homes being rented are smaller than before.
What Happened to Home Prices
Stan also tracked lists and sold prices, along with the price per square foot.
In 2019, the average list price in Chartwell Estates was about $260,000, and the average sold price was $256,700. The median list and sold prices both came in at $240,000. Homes sold for about $98 per square foot.
In the last six months of 2021, the average list price actually dropped slightly to $258,000, while the average sold price rose to about $263,000, a 2.45% increase. The median list price was $245,000, and the median sold price jumped to $270,000—an increase of 12.5%. The biggest surprise came from the price per square foot, which climbed to $143—a staggering 45% increase over 2019.
Even though headline prices didn’t skyrocket, buyers were paying far more per foot and getting smaller homes.
The Picture These Numbers Paint
Rents rose modestly by 7–9% in two years, but the typical rental got smaller. Sale prices rose more at the median than at the average, while the price per square foot surged 45%. Both rental and sale activity pointed to smaller homes commanding higher costs.
Put simply, tenants are paying a bit more for less space, while buyers are paying much more per square foot for smaller homes.
What It Means for Landlords, Buyers, and Renters
For renters, the slower rise in rent compared to home prices offered temporary relief—they weren’t instantly priced out. For landlords, smaller homes in Chartwell still rent steadily, but rising per-foot costs are tightening returns. For owners of larger homes, selling now may make more sense than renting, since rising property values are outpacing rental yield.
The numbers also suggest that investors have a short window of opportunity before being priced out of Chartwell Estates and possibly the wider Riverside area of Greer. Rental math will get tougher as property values continue to climb.
Why Price Per Square Foot Tells the Real Story
Average and median prices can be misleading. The real measure of change lies in price per square foot. From $98 to $143 in just two years, the increase tells the full story. Buyers are paying significantly more for each foot of space, and renters are getting less home for slightly more money. When what sells gets smaller, the averages can look calm while the underlying inflation surges.
The Takeaway From Chartwell Estates
Rents are up slightly, homes are smaller, and the price per square foot has soared. For tenants, that means higher prices and fewer options. For landlords and buyers, it means the market is nearing a turning point where smaller homes dominate, and rental opportunities grow limited.
As home prices continue their upward path, rental rates will eventually follow. It’s not a question of if, but when.
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Bottom Line
In this neighborhood study, purchase prices—especially per square foot—rose much faster than rental rates. Homes got smaller, rents edged up, and buyers paid more for less space. It’s a clear reminder that in a fast-moving market like Greenville, owning and renting tell two very different stories. The question isn’t whether rents will rise—it’s how long they can lag behind.
Ien Araneta
Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville
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