Buyers Are Back—But the Data Isn’t Playing Along

The Greenville housing scene is in one of its strangest seasons yet—a moment when energy on the ground feels unmistakably alive while the official numbers seem to be humming an entirely different tune. Weekend open houses are filling up, buyers are reappearing with renewed focus, and long-quiet neighborhoods are suddenly buzzing with activity. And yet, when the data rolls in, it’s delivering a reality check that doesn’t always match what’s happening in driveways and living rooms.

This disconnect isn’t just interesting—it’s reshaping how the Upstate reads the market. And to make sense of it, the latest episode digs deep into the tension between perception and statistics.

Buyers Are Back—But the Data Isn’t Playing Along

On paper, the numbers still look calm. But out in the real world, something very different is happening. Buyers are showing up in waves—filling open houses, chasing down larger lots, and creating a kind of quiet buzz that doesn’t match the official stats. It’s the kind of moment where the feeling in the air tells one story, and the spreadsheets tell another.

This “Buyers Are Back—But the Data Isn’t Playing Along” dynamic defined the entire month, creating a split-screen market where demand feels energized even as the metrics move more slowly. The energy is unmistakable, even if the data hasn’t caught up yet.

A Surge in Listings Signals a Market Shift

The data starts at the top: new listings continue climbing, with October showing a nearly 22% year-over-year increase. That’s not a small nudge—that’s a meaningful supply shift happening month after month.

Homeowners who had been waiting for rates to settle are now stepping forward, creating one of the largest listing booms the Upstate has seen in years.

At the same time, pending sales are growing, but not in a clean, predictable pattern. September’s revision revealed a sharp uptick—more than 9% year-over-year—showing that demand was stronger than first reported. October, however, looks like it may end slightly lower than its 2023 counterpart once revisions are complete.

And that’s where the disconnect begins: buyers are showing up, but they’re not always committing at the pace the foot traffic suggests.

Closed Sales Strengthen, Showing Real Momentum

If pending sales are the early ripple and closed sales are the full wave, here the numbers speak clearly:

• October closed sales were up 10% year-over-year

• September came in even stronger, with a 21% increase

  
  

For two consecutive months, closings have shown undeniable strength—the kind that aligns with what buyers and agents are experiencing out in the wild.

Momentum, at least in this category, is unmistakable.

How Long Does a Sale Take? The Calendar Says More Than the Market Does

Homes are currently taking an average of 54 days to sell—the exact same number as October last year.

And while 54 days may sound like a slowdown compared to spring and summer, this is classic seasonality. Greenville always cools as the holidays approach, and 54 days is extremely normal for this time of year.

The message here: The market isn’t stalled—it’s simply following the calendar.

Prices Show Steady, Not Explosive, Growth

Two indicators reveal the temperature on pricing:

• Median price: up 2.9%, now at $323,000

• Average price: $416,670, up slightly year-over-year

  
  

Not dramatic, not unstable—steady.

The median price, in particular, has stayed on a consistent positive track all year, except for one dip back in January. And even then, prices were still strong; they simply didn’t outpace inflation.

This is where Greenville’s subtlety shows. The market isn’t racing upward, but it isn’t slipping either. It’s moving like a car settling into the middle lane—not slow, not frantic, but steady enough to feel safe.

How Much Are Sellers Getting? More Than Many Expect

Homes are now selling for 97.8% of list price—slightly down from last year but still solid. Historically, Greenville hovered around 98% long before the pandemic, so today’s number is simply a return to normal.

Concessions exist, negotiations are back, and realism has replaced the peak-era frenzy. But sellers who price strategically still perform extremely well.

Affordability Edges Toward a Turning Point

Perhaps the biggest surprise hiding in the data is this: the Housing Affordability Index has climbed back to 99—just one point away from the ideal benchmark of 100.

That means Greenville is inches away from a market where the typical household can again afford the typical home. Rates dipping into the low 6% range have helped stabilize what once felt impossible.

Just months ago, affordability sat at 92, the lowest point of the year. Now it’s flirting with balance again—a shift that reflects how quickly things can change when mortgage rates take even a small turn downward.

Inventory Hits Multi-Year Highs

The biggest headline from the supply side: Inventory remains more than 30% higher than last year for three straight months.

This isn’t a trickle. It’s a genuine wave. Much of that inventory consists of new construction, which continues to load the market with options, even as builders adjust strategies to changing buyer behavior.

More choices for buyers mean more competition for sellers—and more stability for Greenville as a whole.

The Season Isn’t Matching the Script

Typically, Greenville enters the slow lane between October and January. But this year is breaking the rules.

• Buyers are suddenly active again.

• Sellers are listing more confidently.

• Traffic patterns feel like spring.

• Data points feel like fall.

The result is the exact scenario captured in the focus keyword: Buyers Are Back—But the Data Isn’t Playing Along

A market with two realities and one shared truth: Greenville refuses to behave predictably.

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Bottom Line

Greenville’s real estate market is moving with the confidence of a rebound and the numbers of a recalibration. Buyers are showing up in force, especially for homes with larger lots and better space. Meanwhile, the data is signaling moderation—steady prices, higher inventory, normalizing days on the market, and improving affordability.

The market isn’t in a boom, and it’s certainly not in a bust. It’s in a transition—one shaped by shifting mortgage rates, refreshed buyer energy, and a supply landscape that finally feels replenished.

For anyone watching closely, this is a moment worth paying attention to. The signals may be mixed, but the direction is unmistakably forward.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville