Is a Buyer’s Market Coming?

After several years of record-breaking speed, Greenville’s housing market is finally showing signs of catching its breath. Listings are climbing, prices are flattening, and sellers are adjusting to a slower, more measured pace. The question on everyone’s mind? Is the Upstate quietly shifting toward a buyer’s market—or just finding its balance again?

Greenville Buyer’s Market Trends

If 2021 felt like a sprint, 2024 feels more like a marathon—with water breaks.

Greenville’s market is softening, but not collapsing. The latest data from the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors paints a fascinating picture: more homes for sale, longer listing times, and steady—if not spectacular—sales activity. Buyers have more options. Sellers are still closing deals, but they’re working harder for them.

The shift didn’t happen overnight. It began with pent-up supply finally breaking loose after two years of hesitation. Homeowners who’d been waiting for lower mortgage rates realized they might be waiting forever, and so they listed. New listings in May jumped 15.4% year over year—marking the third straight month above 2,000 listings. That’s a threshold Greenville didn’t cross once in all of 2023.

In other words, inventory is waking up (and it’s had a long nap).

Supply Rising, Demand Drifting

For months, pending and closed sales told a mixed story. April and May both showed healthy closings—up 1.1% and 16.2% respectively compared to last year. But demand? It’s not keeping up with supply.

When homes pile up faster than buyers can clear them, pressure builds—not panic, but pressure. Pending sales slipped slightly for two months in a row, and while revisions may bring those numbers up, the trendline points toward moderation.

It’s a classic real estate push and pull: strong listing activity, softening demand, and a market that’s slowly balancing itself. (Think of it like a see-saw—nobody’s flying off yet, but both sides are feeling the shift.)

Days on Market: The 2019 Vibe Returns

If the last few years were a blur, 2024 feels oddly familiar. Homes are taking an average of 46 days to go under contract, nearly identical to pre-pandemic patterns. Back in 2018 and 2019, those numbers were considered healthy—steady, balanced, and predictable.

That’s exactly where Greenville seems to be heading now. Buyers are taking their time, comparing options, and negotiating again. Sellers, meanwhile, are realizing that “list it and leave it” isn’t a strategy anymore.

Prices Hold—For Now

For the first time in months, the median sales price in Greenville held flat year over year at $315,000 in May. No gain, no drop—just a rare moment of stillness in a market that’s been climbing for years.

But the average sales price tells another story, rising to $390,000, the highest on record. That jump reflects more luxury and high-end sales entering the mix, skewing the average even as the typical home price steadies.

It’s a tale of two markets: everyday homes cooling, upscale listings heating up.

Sellers’ Reality Check

Sellers are still getting solid offers, but not the free-for-all of years past. The average property is selling for 98.7% of its list price, down slightly from 98.9% last year. It’s not a dramatic drop—but it’s enough to remind sellers that pricing matters again.

A home that would’ve sparked a bidding war in 2021 might now sit for a few extra weekends (and maybe endure a few awkward “we’ll think about it” texts).

For serious sellers, the new strategy isn’t to undercut—but to understand. Buyers have options. Overpricing out of nostalgia for the frenzy will backfire faster than ever.

Affordability Stuck in Neutral

The Housing Affordability Index for May stayed flat at 94, matching last year’s level. With home prices and mortgage rates both steady, affordability hasn’t budged.

To move that number meaningfully, rates would need to drop significantly—or incomes would need to rise sharply. Neither seems imminent. The Federal Reserve’s expected September rate cut, if it happens, will likely trim only a fraction of a percent from mortgage rates—enough for a headline, not a breakthrough.

Until then, buyers will keep juggling budgets while sellers adjust to a world where offers don’t roll in overnight.

Inventory Surge: Buyers Finally Get Breathing Room

Here’s the headline stat: Inventory is up nearly 60% year over year in May. That’s the biggest increase Greenville has seen in years.

Even after expected revisions, the area should land around 4,200 active listings, a level not seen since 2019. That translates to roughly 3.3 months of supply, edging close to the threshold where balance tips from sellers to buyers.

For context, the old rule of thumb said six months of inventory meant a balanced market. But post-pandemic dynamics have shifted that equilibrium. In today’s environment, four months might be the new “neutral.”

In other words, we’re not officially in a buyer’s market yet—but we’re walking its neighborhood. (It’s like smelling cookies baking next door—you’re not inside, but you know what’s coming.)

The 2024 Reality Check

At this point, Greenville’s housing market feels less like a rollercoaster and more like a careful climb down from the peak. Supply is catching up, demand is recalibrating, and affordability—while strained—is holding steady.

For sellers, this means managing expectations and pricing smart. For buyers, it means patience might finally pay off.

The real story isn’t panic—it’s progression. The market is maturing, returning to something resembling normalcy. And for many, that’s the healthiest news of all.

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Bottom Line

Greenville isn’t crashing—it’s correcting.

The numbers show a market cooling gently after years of heat, giving both buyers and sellers a chance to breathe. More listings mean more choice. Slower sales mean more negotiation. And a flat median price? That’s the sign of a market regaining its rhythm.

If inventory keeps growing and demand stays modest, the Upstate could tip into a mild buyer’s market before the year ends. For now, though, it’s a rare moment of balance—steady, realistic, and refreshingly human. (And honestly, that’s not such a bad place to be.)

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville