Is the Dreaded 2024 Recession Here? And Does It Matter?

It’s the question hanging over every conversation—from the stock market to your neighbor’s dinner table: Are we in a recession or not?

Economic signals are flashing in every direction—job openings are down, layoffs are up, and the yield curve (that mysterious economic graph everyone suddenly pretends to understand) is doing a yo-yo dance between inverted and normal. The result? Confusion, anxiety, and more than a few “Should I buy now or wait? ” debates over coffee.

But here’s the real twist: even if a recession is officially declared, it might not hit the housing market the way most people think.

The 2024 Recession and Real Estate

2024 Recession and Real Estate, and it perfectly captures what’s on everyone’s mind: if the economy slows down, does housing follow? (Or will the housing market—ever the drama queen—insist it’s “totally fine” while the rest of the economy quietly hyperventilates behind the scenes?)

Recently, job openings dropped while layoffs rose—a combination that makes economists twitch. On top of that, the yield curve briefly uninverted (yes, that’s a real term), which historically happens right before recessions. For context, the yield curve compares long-term and short-term Treasury bond rates, and when it flips upside down, it’s usually a red flag that investors see storm clouds ahead (like when your GPS calmly says “recalculating” right before you end up on a dirt road with no signal).

In simpler terms: when people start preferring long-term safety over short-term gains, it’s rarely a good omen. (Think of it as everyone leaving the roller coaster line to crowd the merry-go-round instead.)

Here’s the spooky part—since 1955, every major U.S. recession has followed an inverted yield curve. The brief “uninversion” we just saw? Historically, that’s been the calm before the economic storm.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean panic for real estate—because, as this episode points out, not every recession hits housing the same way.

Reading the Economic Tea Leaves

If you’re wondering what all this means for Greenville, it starts with one number: the borrowing score.

That’s a term coined in this discussion to describe the sum of two key numbers—the 30-year fixed mortgage rate plus the unemployment rate. When those combined reach 11 or higher, it usually spells trouble for housing. When it stays below 11, things tend to hold steady.

Right now, that number sits at 10.65—which means the market is uncomfortably close to a tipping point but not there yet. Think of it as Greenville’s version of yellow traffic lights: it’s not time to stop, but you should probably keep your foot hovering over the brake.

If mortgage rates rise just a bit, or unemployment ticks higher, that number could push past 11—and that’s when the housing market could start to feel it.

What the Data Actually Says

Historically, when unemployment hovers around 4.3% (right where it is now), the housing market tends to operate in a soft seller’s market. Homes move, but not with the frenzy of 2021. Sellers still hold some power, but buyers have learned to negotiate again (and occasionally win).

Once unemployment hits 4.9%, things shift toward a buyer’s market. Past 5.5%, that’s when “for sale” signs start collecting dust. But here’s the kicker—mortgage rates matter even more.

When mortgage rates dip below 4%, it almost doesn’t matter what unemployment is doing. People buy homes. Period. (Because who can resist locking in a rate that low? Even your dog would consider refinancing his kennel.)

But when rates rise and stay above 6%, things get trickier. Every half-point increase knocks out more buyers, while sellers cling to pandemic-era expectations. It’s the perfect recipe for stalemate—and for awkward open houses where everyone’s pretending to be interested but really just comparing monthly payment calculators on their phones.

What a Recession Would Mean for Housing

If a recession does officially land, it doesn’t automatically mean home prices will crash. In fact, in many past recessions, prices held steady—or even climbed.

Why? Because when the economy slows, the Fed often cuts interest rates to stimulate growth. Lower rates make mortgages cheaper, and suddenly, buyers who were sitting on the sidelines start jumping back in.

If rates dip into the low 5s or even high 4s, the market could heat up again. Inventory would tighten, bidding wars could return, and a “soft seller’s market” could quickly become a “blink-and-it's-gone seller’s market.”

On the flip side, if layoffs rise faster than rates fall, that delicate balance could break—and the market could finally shift in buyers’ favor.

In short: the next few months will be a tug-of-war between rates and jobs. (Picture a three-legged race between the Fed, Wall Street, and your mortgage lender. It’s not graceful, but it’s certainly entertaining.)

Greenville’s Position

Locally, Greenville continues to defy extremes. While national headlines scream uncertainty, upstate real estate keeps humming along. Months of inventory remain around three—a low but stable number that signals moderate demand. Sellers aren’t desperate, buyers aren’t frantic, and most transactions end in something close to fair.

In other words, it’s calm, but you can feel the wind shifting.

Should unemployment creep closer to 5%, expect the Fed to intervene with sharper rate cuts. Should rates drop faster than layoffs rise, Greenville could see renewed demand by early 2025. But for now, the market is still in that sweet spot—a “soft seller’s market” where caution rules but opportunity still exists.

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Bottom Line

The 2024 recession and real estate conversation isn’t about doom—it’s about dynamics. If rates drop, demand rises. If unemployment jumps, things slow. The dance between those two numbers will determine how this plays out in Greenville and beyond.

So, is the dreaded recession here? Maybe. But does it matter as much as people think? Not if you know how to read the signs—and stay ready for what comes next.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville