Reviewing 2025 Predictions and What Stan Got Right

The Christmas sweater said “festive.” The scorecard said “accountable.” On a year-end episode recorded December 16 and released for Christmas Eve die-hards, the host walked through the bold calls made for 2025 and put real numbers next to every hunch. Some predictions landed precisely where the data fell; others missed for reasons he owned in plain English. In total, he clocked seven and a half out of ten—and the breakdown offers a clear read on how the Upstate market actually behaved.

Reviewing 2025 Predictions: What Landed, What Missed

Reviewing 2025 predictions comes down to simple, verifiable markers. Mortgage rates never dipped below 6% on the Mortgage News Daily gauge. Median prices advanced modestly on a 12-month view. Cash closings hovered a little above one in five. Inventory rose longer than expected. Pending sales kept surprising to the upside. Industry rule changes stayed tame, but local policy took a stricter turn on development. Inflation didn’t glide back to 2%, thanks to tariff aftershocks. And despite all the noise, sellers still saw the value in paying buyer representatives. Tally it all up, and the year reads less like a rollercoaster and more like a series of sharp bends you could see coming—if you were watching closely.

Call #1: Mortgage rates above 6% — Nailed

The prediction: the Mortgage News Daily rate line would remain above 6% for the entire calendar year. The outcome: exactly that. Plenty of voices expected a “five-handle,” but volatility and macro cross-currents kept the floor at six. Mark one in the win column.

Call #2: No recession, inflation back to 2% — Half right

He split this into two parts. Recession first: despite a negative first-quarter GDP scare, subsequent quarters didn’t deliver the second consecutive contraction needed to declare one. On inflation, he specifically tracked PCE and expected a late-year return to ~2%. Instead, tariffs nudged costs higher step by step, with PCE moving up from roughly 2.3% in April to 2.8% by year’s end. Verdict: no recession (right), 2% inflation (miss).

Call #3: Industry upheaval? — Quiet year, light paperwork tweaks

After 2024’s headline-grabbing shifts around the MLS and compensation practices, the 2025 call was “business as usual.” That’s what unfolded: minor forms tweaks, no seismic rewrites. Another checkmark.

Call #4: Appreciation between 1–2% — Hit

Using the 12-month median sales price as the yardstick, the year settled near 1.6%—right inside the 1–2% channel he projected. Not a boom, not a bust; a glide path that matched on-the-ground experience.

Call #5: Realtor/MLS headcount would drop — Miss

He anticipated a contraction in local membership tied to a tougher production environment. Instead, the MLS user count ticked slightly up (about 5,140 vs. 5,090 using his same tracking method). That’s a clean L—and it’s on the scorecard.

Call #6: Inventory arc (monthly peaks by March; YoY gains end by mid-summer) — Miss

He expected month-over-month increases to top out by March and year-over-year growth to fade by June/July. Reality: monthly levels kept climbing much longer, with the first notable downshift not arriving until late in the year, and YoY increases persisted beyond summer. Another honest miss—and a useful tell about supply outpacing demand.

Call #7: Pending sales up every month YoY — On track

Pending sales are always messy in real time due to revisions, but using the show’s rules and the best available reads, every reported month improved year over year, with November labeled “very close” pending final revisions. Directionally, the call proved right: activity wasn’t collapsing; it was warming.

Call #8: Cash share between 21–23% — Bullseye

He pulled the MLS, did the math live, and landed at 22.12% cash closings year-to-date (3,745 of 16,926). That’s squarely inside the forecast lane and perfectly consistent with what buyers and sellers were feeling in negotiations.

Call #9: Greenville County would tighten development rules — Correct

Local policy turned the screws: a year-long moratorium on cluster subdivisions while rules were rewritten, extended septic/lot-size limitations without the hoped-for sunset relief, countywide riparian buffers (50/100/150 feet by property context), a short-term-rental study committee, and movement toward impact fee exploration via a consultant. Bottom line: more friction for bringing new homes to market.

Call #10: Would sellers stop paying buyer agents? — No—and that mattered

The forecast was that sellers would continue to offer payment to buyer representatives, because the value proposition—qualified traffic, smoother transactions, and better contract execution—still mattered. That’s how 2025 actually operated in practice. No apples-to-oranges number games, just the reality that most sellers kept funding the other side’s representation.

The Scorecard: 7.5 out of 10

Add it all up and the report card reads seven and a half correct out of ten. The misses (inventory timing and membership drift) are instructive; the hits (rates, appreciation, cash share, policy direction, and compensation behavior) reflect a grounded read of how this market truly moves.

What the Year Actually Felt Like

• Prices: A steady 1–2% twelve-month lift—enough to matter, not enough to spook.

• Speed: Pending sales surprised positively; the demand engine never stalled.

• Choice: Inventory finally gave buyers more options, longer than anyone expected.

• Costs: PCE wouldn’t cooperate, thanks to the rolling impact.

• Playbook: The rules mostly held; the local rulebook got stricter.

• Deals: Roughly one in five closings were cash, shaping negotiations in subtle ways.

• Representation: Sellers still valued buyer-side pros—and paid for them.

A Note on Coverage

While the show is grounded in Greenville, he reminded listeners that about 80% of this year’s closings were outside Greenville County—places like Anderson, Pickens, Spartanburg, Oconee, and Greenwood. The read here isn’t a single-zip snapshot; it’s a regional pulse.

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Bottom Line

A year that looked murky from 10,000 feet became clear at street level: rates stayed above 6%, prices edged up, cash stayed influential, and inventory stretched out longer than expected. Policy tightened, but the industry avoided another earthquake. Sellers kept paying buyer agents because the help still helps. And when the dust settled, the score was 7.5 out of 10—not a victory lap, but a credible read of a market that rewards close watching over wishful thinking.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville