State of the Market—Prices Continue to Soar

As 2021 came to a close, Greenville’s housing market had one message for buyers and sellers alike: prices are still climbing. In this episode of Selling Greenville, host Stan McCune breaks down the latest Greater Greenville Association of Realtors data, offering a year-end look at what’s driving the surge—and why even seasonal slowdowns can’t cool a market this hot.

Greenville Home Prices Continue to Soar

Home Prices Continue to Soar: By late 2021, the local market had stabilized from its summer frenzy—but “stable” in Greenville still meant fast-moving listings, record-high prices, and shrinking affordability. The Greater Greenville Association of Realtors’ November report told the story clearly: inventory was tight, listings were scarce, and median home prices had reached new highs.

While some agents had started whispering about a slowdown in August, Stan reminded listeners that real estate follows predictable rhythms. Fewer listings in November and December don’t mean the market’s collapsing—it’s just the seasonal ebb and flow. When spring hits, things typically ramp right back up.

Inventory, Listings, and the Elusive Slowdown

New listings rose only 2.6% year over year in November 2021—barely a blip compared to earlier months when double-digit jumps were common. Back in spring, Greenville had seen surges of 19% in April, 14% in May, and 13% in June, reflecting the height of post-pandemic buyer demand.

But heading into fall, those increases dropped back into single digits, keeping inventory stuck at historically low levels. Until those listing numbers grow—or until buyers finally start stepping out—inventory will continue to hover near the bottom.

Pending sales, one of the best indicators of buyer activity, told a similar story. After four straight months of year-over-year declines, October finally showed an uptick of 2.1%. Closed sales in November then jumped 15.8% year over year, the strongest month since May. That meant one thing: even as the holidays approached, buyers were still writing offers.

The Median Price That Stopped Everyone in Their Tracks

One number, however, stole the spotlight: median sales price.

In November 2021, Greenville’s median home price hit $285,000—up 17.3% year over year from $243,000. It was not only the largest year-over-year gain of the entire year but also the highest median price ever recorded in the region.

That level of appreciation—well above the roughly 12% annual trend—underscored how fiercely competitive the market remained. Even in a “slower” month, Greenville homes were appreciating at more than 1% per month on average, with some areas doubling that rate.

The average sales price told a similar story at $334,000, up 12.6% year over year. Still, Stan emphasized that the median price is the better metric because it avoids being skewed by ultra-luxury or bargain listings. And the median was crystal clear: affordability is slipping fast.

Affordability Index Hits Record Low

If there was one sobering statistic in the mix, it was the Housing Affordability Index, which dropped to 83—the lowest on record for Greenville.

That figure means the median household income is now just 83% of what’s needed to qualify for the median-priced home at current interest rates. In simpler terms, average local families are being priced out.

The index first fell below 100 in August 2020 and hasn’t recovered since. Each year, as prices climb and incomes lag, that gap widens further. Stan noted that many families who might have purchased in past years are now turning to rentals instead—a trend he planned to explore in a future episode.

Days on Market: Still Near Record Lows

Even as affordability wanes, demand hasn’t slowed. Homes are still flying off the market.

In November 2021, the average days on market dropped to 23, down from 39 a year earlier. That’s the lowest figure on record for Greenville. To put it in perspective, during the worst part of the Great Recession, homes sat for over 120 days before selling.

Now? Most listings barely last three weeks before landing a contract (or three).

Percent of List Price Received—Back Over 100%

For years, Greenville homes typically sold for 98% of the asking price. That changed in 2021 when, for the first time ever, the market average broke 100% in April—and stayed there through most of the year.

After dipping slightly in October to 99.9%, the November figure jumped back to 100.1%, confirming that the average home sold for slightly over its list price. Stan even gave himself a small pat on the back for predicting that October would be one of the best months for buyers, when supply briefly outweighed demand before the pendulum swung back to sellers in November.

Months of Supply: Still Dangerously Low

Despite the data quirks that sometimes appear in the Greenville Association reports, the trend remains unmistakable. The months of supply—a key measure of market balance—sat at just 1.9 months in November, the same as the year before.

A healthy market usually needs three months or more of inventory to give buyers and sellers breathing room. Anything below that threshold signals an overheated, competitive market where listings vanish fast, and bidding wars thrive.

At 1.9 months, Greenville remains deep in seller’s territory, and even those sellers feel the pressure of constant offers, appraisals, and fast timelines.

What’s Next for Greenville Real Estate

Stan didn’t sugarcoat it: the upward momentum isn’t stopping anytime soon. Unless mortgage rates rise significantly—or local governments make housing more attainable through smarter zoning and new construction incentives—Greenville’s affordability crisis will only deepen.

Seasonal slowdowns aside, supply and demand remain tightly linked. Both buyer and seller activity dipped in the fall, but in proportion to one another, keeping the market balanced on the same high wire.

The wild card is interest rates. With the Federal Reserve signaling rate hikes to combat inflation, mortgage rates could rise modestly in 2022. Even then, they’d still be historically low, meaning a mild cooling effect at best—not a crash.

For now, the takeaway is simple: Greenville is still growing fast, and the numbers prove it.

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Bottom Line

Greenville’s housing market closed out 2021 with record highs and few signs of slowing. Median home prices soared 17% year over year, days on market hit new lows, and affordability plunged to historic depths. Despite whispers of a slowdown, demand remains strong, and supply remains scarce.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville