Trump’s Immediate RE Impact + Final 2024 Market Stats

Greenville’s housing conversation just took a sharp turn. An episode that was supposed to cover a totally different topic pivoted the moment brand-new Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS® (GGAR) data dropped—right as a new administration settled into the White House. Recorded at night on January 21, this one blends two hot threads: what the bond market did immediately after the inauguration and how 2024 ultimately closed out for upstate real estate (new listings, pendings, closings, prices, days on market, inventory—the works). It’s practical, numbers-forward, and highly local, with a few key takeaways buyers and sellers can actually use.

Trump’s Immediate Real Estate Impact

Right away, markets reacted to what didn’t happen: no sweeping, tariff-heavy executive orders on Day 1. On a 5-day view, the 10-year Treasury yield slid from the high 4.7s toward ~4.57% around inauguration—bond traders essentially heard, “Inflation risk might stay contained for now.” Since mortgage rates take their cue from the 10-year, they eased a touch from a recent local peak (Mortgage News Daily showed ~7.26% on Jan 13, then hovering near ~7.07–7.08%).

Two working ideas emerged in the episode:

• What moves mortgage rates in this environment is less “housing policy” and more everything-macro (tariffs, inflation expectations, and bond market sentiment).

• Early read: the market is pricing in fewer near-term inflation shocks than feared, which helped the 10-year step down off the recent high.

For now, he’s not seeing strong signals that housing affordability itself will be a top-of-agenda issue at the federal level—so Greenville should expect indirect effects (via rates/inflation), not direct ones (like targeted housing stimulus), until proven otherwise.

2024’s Finish Line: What Changed, What Didn’t

The fresh GGAR release reframes the final quarter. A quick theme you’ll see over and over: the lingering ripple effects from Hurricane Helene (late September) plus Greenville’s usual year-end seasonality.

New Listings: Big December Rebound

After two softer months (October and November), December's new listings jumped ~22% year over year (from ~1,063 to ~1,299). Think of it as a catch-up month: storm disruptions delayed some fall sellers, and the backlog unclogged in December.

Pending Sales: A Quiet 2024 Workhorse

Every single month of 2024 outpaced its 2023 counterpart for pendings. Part of the reason: more resales flowing through MLS (versus new-construction deals that don’t always get logged as pendings). November still showed a Y/Y increase; December’s preliminary number looked artificially low at press time—typical, as that last month gets revised upward later.

Closings: December Popped (Seasonality + Storm Catch-Up)

Closings surged ~17% Y/Y in December—the second-biggest monthly gain of the year—and even outpaced the fall. That’s unusual but explainable: December often gets a seasonal lift anyway, and Helene delayed a chunk of end-September activity that finally landed on the tape.

Days on Market: Cooling, Then Leveling

December’s “days until contract” landed at ~54 days—up modestly Y/Y, but more importantly, part of a three-month stretch where market time hovered in the low-to-mid 50s. Translation: the late-year market felt similar to late 2023—still slower than the early 2022 frenzy, but reasonably functional for well-priced listings.

Prices: Four Months of Y/Y Median Declines…But Easing

Greenville’s median price posted another mild year-over-year dip in December (about –1.5% to ~$310K vs. ~$315K last year). Notably, the size of the decline shrank each month from September to December. The 12-month rolling median for 2024 (~$349,900) still edged above 2023 (~$345,900), but the month-to-month finish came in lower—evidence of buyers regaining leverage when rates stayed elevated.

Short view from the episode: January could still show Y/Y softness; February might flip back positive because last February’s median was unusually low (~$299K). Either way, rates are the lever: if they don’t fall, prices tend to do the adjusting.

Average Price: Up (As Usual)

While medians sagged late, December’s average price rose ~2.6% Y/Y to the ~$376–377K range. Averages get pulled around by higher-end outliers; medians are better for “typical buyer experience.”

Percent of List Received: Stability Wins

December nudged up to ~98.2% (vs. ~98.1% a year ago). This metric’s real story is its calm—most of 2024 stayed in the 98s, drifting a bit higher in spring/summer, then easing late. In practical terms: if you list at $400K and you’re aligned with the comps, don’t plan your budget around $420K—plan around ~$392–$398K, plus concessions.

Affordability: Rates Blunted the Benefit

Even with late-year price moderation, affordability ticked down a hair (to ~97 vs. ~98 last December) because mortgage rates ran higher Y/Y. The math is a three-legged stool—income, home price, and rate. With incomes improving and late-year prices easing, rates were the spoiler.

Inventory: Up Y/Y, But Seasonally Slipping Into Winter

December inventory was up ~28% Y/Y (~4,413 vs. ~3,456), but the higher-level pattern matters more: levels peaked in September, then drifted down into winter (as usual). The on-the-ground feel in January: active counts looked leaner than December, consistent with the typical winter trough.

Months of Supply: ~3 and Drifting

December printed ~3.3 months of inventory before revisions; the running trend since September has inched from ~3.4 toward the low 3s. In this era, Greenville doesn’t need the “old school” 6 months to feel buyer-tilted; even mid-4s would shift tone. At ~3, it’s still fundamentally a constrained-supply market—especially for homes that check the boxes.

What Buyers Can Do Right Now

• Anchor to the actives. That’s how buyers shop: how does this house compare to everything else available today?

• Model the lifestyle upgrade. Commute, yard, school alignment, neighborhood feel—if the move doesn’t materially improve daily life, it won’t pencil, no matter how pretty the kitchen is.

• Expect decent but not desperate sellers. Late-year softness gave leverage, but “98% of the list” says the market isn’t falling apart. Strong offers still matter for the good ones.

What Sellers Can Do Right Now

• Price to the market you’re in—not the one you remember. Late-2024 medians slipped Y/Y; overpricing just burns days and invites bigger discounts later.

• Make your house “the easy yes.” Clean, repaired, move-in-ready beats “updated but awkward.” Function matters as much as finish.

• Assume savvy buyers. They’re comparing your home against every active one, not just comps that closed months ago.

A Quick Note on Rates, Tariffs & Vibes

The 10-year Treasury is the scoreboard right now. It dipped on an inauguration day devoid of tariff shocks; mortgage rates followed. If the administration keeps inflation expectations calm, the 10-year can stay capped, and rates can grind lower or at least stay stable. If tariffs or other inflationary signals resurface, expect the opposite. The episode’s working baseline: no runaway move above 5% on the 10-year this year, even in a bad scenario—though that’s an opinion informed by multiple sources, not a promise.

Watch Or Listen To The Selling Greenville Podcast

Subscribe to the Selling Greenville podcast for real-time insights, bold perspectives, and unfiltered takes on the Upstate housing scene. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply watching the market unfold—this is where Greenville goes to stay informed.

Bottom Line

Two stories defined the moment: Trump’s Immediate Real Estate Impact (felt through bonds and rates, not housing-specific edicts) and a 2024 finish that outperformed expectations—thanks to normal December seasonality plus Hurricane Helene’s lingering backlog. Prices cooled year-over-year for the last four months, but the slide softened each time; percent-of-list stayed steady; inventory is higher than last year, yet still tight by historical feel.

For buyers, the play is disciplined comparison shopping and a clear lifestyle thesis. For sellers, it’s truthful pricing against today’s actives and making the home an easy “yes.” As always in Greenville, a few tenths on the 10-year can change the weekend—so watch the bond board, not the headlines.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville