What Impact Will a Trump Presidency Have on Real Estate?

The election dust has settled, the headlines are cooling, and the markets—ever dramatic—are starting to breathe again. But in the world of housing, where mortgage rates and market jitters dance a delicate tango, one question lingers in every realtor’s mind: what impact will a Trump presidency have on real estate?

In a recent episode of Selling Greenville, the host unpacked that very question, cutting through the noise to explore what the next four years could mean for housing, inflation, and the all-important mortgage rate rollercoaster (because apparently, calm markets are just too boring for 2025).

The Trump Presidency Real Estate Impact

In the days leading up to the election, markets were restless—like a cat waiting for dinner but not sure who’s holding the can opener. The uncertainty alone was enough to send bond yields soaring, crypto rising, and investors nervously pacing.

As the episode explained, it wasn’t about who won—it was about finally knowing. Markets don’t mind bad news nearly as much as they hate confusion. Once the results became clear and Trump’s return to the White House looked certain, stability began creeping back in. Stocks, bonds, and even crypto started to settle (for now, at least—because if history’s any guide, the market always finds something new to stress about).

The bond market’s reaction was especially telling. The 10-year Treasury yield—closely tied to 30-year mortgage rates—spiked before the election, then dipped as results came in. Mortgage rates, which had been inching toward the low sevens, began to relax back into the high sixes.

The message? Traders weren’t celebrating or panicking—they were just relieved the guessing game was over.

A Familiar Playbook: Trump’s History with Rates and Inflation

Trump’s past relationship with the Federal Reserve is, well, complicated (think “it’s not you, it’s me” energy—but with interest rates). During his first term, he publicly pressured the Fed to keep rates low. And as the podcast reminded listeners, that tension could easily resurface.

Powell has already said he wouldn’t step down if asked, setting up what could be an early political showdown. But in today’s market, the Fed’s influence has started to fade. Traders aren’t hanging on every Fed whisper anymore—they’re watching inflation data instead. (In Wall Street terms, it’s like the cool kid just stopped caring what the principal thinks.)

If Trump manages to keep inflation under control, the housing market could benefit in big ways. Mortgage rates might slide into the mid-fives—a number buyers haven’t seen since 2022. But what if policies spark another inflation surge? Those same rates could shoot right back into the sevens.

In short, Trump’s economic choices won’t just shape Wall Street—they’ll ripple through every closing table and construction site across America.

Housing, Jobs, and the Recession Domino Effect

Housing doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Construction employment, the host noted, has long been one of the most reliable indicators of economic health. When construction jobs start to decline, recessions usually follow—like thunder after lightning.

Right now, construction employment is still growing, but at a slower pace than in previous years. That slowdown is worrying. If housing continues to lag while other sectors remain stable, it could eventually drag the economy down with it. (Think of housing as the Jenga block near the bottom—pull it out, and everything starts to wobble.)

For Trump, that means one thing: if he wants to claim an economic comeback, he can’t ignore real estate. The sector’s ripple effect is too strong. Whether through interest rate pressure, deregulation, or development incentives, his administration will have to address housing to keep the broader economy steady.

Possible Moves: Stimulus, Deregulation, and Federal Lands

Trump’s campaign proposals include everything from building “futuristic cities” on federal land to cutting red tape around development. Ambitious? Absolutely. Quick to execute? Not even close. Those projects could take years—and real estate rarely has that kind of patience.

The podcast speculated that Trump may pursue faster wins instead, like housing stimulus programs or first-time buyer incentives. But that approach has risks too. Short-term stimulus can heat up demand, but often at the cost of higher prices later (like eating sugar before a marathon—great idea for five minutes).

Deregulation, while appealing in theory, also faces hurdles. Most housing restrictions live at the state and local level, far beyond Washington’s reach. The host pointed out that Trump could use federal incentives to push municipalities to loosen zoning rules, but scaling that nationwide would be tough.

In short, the ideas sound bold, but translating them into practical housing relief may prove harder than campaign slogans make it seem.

The Wild Card: Inflation and Immigration

Much of Trump’s economic plan—tariffs, deportations, and big spending proposals—comes with an inflationary shadow. While mass deportations and aggressive tariffs might play well politically, the podcast emphasized that they could reduce workforce productivity and strain supply chains, both of which drive prices up.

In other words, even if the intent is to strengthen the economy, the side effects could land right on the housing market. Fewer workers and higher costs often mean slower construction, pricier materials, and fewer homes available.

Still, the host reminded listeners that campaign promises often look very different once governing begins. In Trump’s first term, similar proposals were dramatically scaled back or delayed. The hope now is for a repeat of that moderation—less fireworks, more focus on results.

Fannie, Freddie, and the Future of Mortgages

Another topic on the table: the fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These two giants, still under government conservatorship since the 2008 financial crisis, remain the backbone of U.S. mortgages. Trump has long expressed interest in returning them to full private ownership.

While that sounds tidy in theory, pulling the plug too fast could raise mortgage rates—something few homebuyers are eager for. The host predicted that if this happens, it won’t be until late in Trump’s term, once the market has stabilized. Until then, it’s more a question of when than if.

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Bottom Line

Housing and politics may not always mix, but they always intertwine. The episode made one thing clear: the path of real estate under a Trump presidency will depend less on speeches and more on inflation, rates, and regulation.

If markets sense stability, mortgage rates could fall, and housing might finally exhale. But if spending and inflation rise, the rebound could stall. Either way, 2025 is shaping up to be another year where real estate—and every homeowner watching from the sidelines—stays on its toes. (Buckle up; it’s going to be another headline-heavy ride.)

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville