10 Bold Predictions for 2023

As the clock flipped to a new year, Selling Greenville laid out a clear-eyed roadmap for what 2023 could look like in the Upstate real estate market—and why. Drawing from hands-on experience and local data points, the episode stepped beyond headlines to frame the year ahead in practical terms that buyers, sellers, and agents can actually use.

Below is a reader-friendly breakdown of those calls—what they are, why they matter, and how they may show up in daily decision-making across the Greenville area.

Greenville Real Estate: 10 Bold Predictions 2023

The heart of the episode centers on Greenville real estate: 10 bold predictions for 2023—ten specific, testable calls the show plans to track throughout the year. Together, they form a picture of moderation rather than meltdown: cooling in some places, surprising resilience in others, and a lot of nuance in between.

1) Mortgage rates dip into the low-to-mid 5s (at some point in 2023)

The Federal Reserve is already easing the pace of hikes (think 25-basis-point moves versus the rapid-fire 75s of last year). The show’s call: rates that have hovered in the high-6s could break into the low-to-mid 5% range sometime this year. That path might emerge from organic market movement—or because the Fed “tinkers” again, especially if recessionary pressure builds. The exact reason is less important than the expectation: affordability should improve from the 2022 peak-rate environment.

2) A mild recession—and a 10–15% dip in closings

The episode aligns with a mild recession view but stresses that 2023 is not 2008. Back then, housing caused the downturn; this time, housing would more likely be impacted indirectly. The practical Greenville forecast: closed sales down 10–15% year over year, even as the local economy continues to look sturdier than many national peers.

3) Median prices stabilize (not fall), even as averages wobble

Expect median home prices—the middle of the market—to stabilize rather than decline, while average prices (which overweight high-end sales) could show year-over-year dips. Why the split? Ultra-expensive and second-home segments tend to slow when wealth effects and markets are choppy, pushing averages down even if median values hold up. Locally, the show notes average prices had already fallen month-to-month for several straight months, while the median has not mirrored that behavior.

Why Greenville is different: Greenville’s demand looks sustained rather than a “gold rush.” People come for durable reasons—a milder climate, a smaller city with big-city amenities, comparatively low taxes, and a property-rights-friendly environment—and tend to stay for those same reasons. That tends to produce lower highs and higher lows: less mania on the way up, less pain on the way down.

4) (Implication woven through #3) Seasonal dips don’t equal a crash

The episode reiterates a key nuance: seasonality can push short-term numbers down without changing the full-year narrative. Watching winter medians dip isn’t the same as prices “falling apart.” Context matters.

5) Foreclosures remain at (or near) all-time lows

The uncomfortable truth of the 2008 crash was negative equity. Today’s reality is the opposite: historically high down payments over the past few years, plus rapid equity gains, have left owners with substantial cushions. If hardship strikes, many owners can sell instead of defaulting. Translation: no foreclosure wave, absent a dramatic shock. And without a flood of distressed sales, the usual engine of big price declines never really turns on.

6) Greenville’s housing affordability ticks up for the first time since 2011

Affordability in the Upstate has been stuck below the “100” mark for a while (meaning the median household can’t fully afford the median-priced home at prevailing rates). The call here: Greenville’s affordability index rises in 2023—helped by cooling appreciation, potential rate relief, and higher pay raises from employers. Will it leap back to 100? That’s a stretch. But the episode expects movement into the mid-to-high 80s, possibly the 90s, after sitting around 78 in the latest reading discussed.

7) Realtor turnover tops 50% locally

The show anticipates >50% turnover among Greenville Realtors in the next 12 months. Two snapshots drove the point home:

• A highly involved agent quietly exiting the industry—phone disconnected, out of real estate—after a year in which “easy money” vanished.

• Another agent earned most of his income opening doors for other Realtors (about $50 per showing)—a side hustle that shrinks fast when activity cools.

Practical advice for consumers: When choosing representation, ask how long an agent has been active, how many closings they’ve handled, and whether they’re likely to still be available if your sale or search stretches out.

8) Inventory stays below pre-pandemic levels—yet months of supply could pop above them

Two very different gauges paint 2023’s supply picture:

• Total inventory (the number of homes for sale at a moment in time) is expected to stay below pre-pandemic norms (roughly 4,000–4,500 locally). A big reason: owners sitting on ~3% mortgages are reluctant to list and double their rate.

• Months of supply, however, could temporarily rise above pre-pandemic levels (traditionally 4–5 months). That metric blends supply and demand—and the bet is demand eases more than supply, at least for a stretch, pushing this ratio up even as total listings remain constrained.

9) Days on market jump to their highest since 2016

Get ready for a visible slowdown in how long it takes to secure an offer. The call: days on market could reach the 70–80 range (highest since 2016). Why? A backlog of listings—especially new construction—that launched into shifting conditions has been sitting, and once those finally sell, they pull the average up sharply. The most recent reference point was 35 days—already the highest in a while—and primed to rise.

10) True “fixer-upper” pricing returns

During the frenzy, sellers could list “needs-work” homes at numbers just shy of turnkey and still find takers because options were scarce. In 2023, buyers have choices again. Expect meaningfully discounted fixer-uppers to reappear as sellers reset expectations—opening the door for value hunters and, in some cases, even flip candidates straight off the MLS.

What this means for buyers and sellers right now

• Buyers: Watch rates. If/when they break into the low-to-mid 5s, monthly payments change meaningfully. Be ready to act on true fixer pricing (finally back), and don’t confuse seasonal dips for a trend collapse—especially in a market with few distressed sales.

• Sellers: Pricing discipline matters again. If your home needs work, price it as such from the outset. Expect longer market times on average and work closely with an agent who’s active, available, and stable—not one likely to exit mid-journey.

• Investors: Fewer bidding wars + longer DOM + a trickle of genuine fixer discounts can equal better buy boxes—particularly if carrying costs improve with any rate relief.

Why Greenville’s setup still looks sturdy

The episode underscores that Greenville’s fundamentals aren’t a fad. People move for climate, lifestyle, amenities-to-size ratio, and policy environment—and stay for the same. That steadier inflow (not a one-off “tech migration” spike) helps explain why the show expects median prices to stabilize rather than sink, foreclosures to remain scarce, and affordability to improve modestly as rates and appreciation cool.

In other words, 2023 looks less like a cliff and more like rebalancing—with plenty of micro-shifts worth watching quarter by quarter.

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Bottom Line

Taken together, these Greenville real estate 10 bold predictions for 2023 point to a market that’s cooler, slower, and more rational—but far from distressed. Rates may relent; median values should hold; distressed supply likely doesn’t flood; and affordability gets a nudge in the right direction. Inventory remains tight, months of supply could blip higher, days on market will climb, and real fixer pricing finally returns.

For everyday decisions, that means strategy matters again: price precisely, prepare thoroughly, and pair up with pros who will still be there at the closing table—whenever you get there.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville