December Data Signals a Shift Toward Sellers

Some months whisper; December didn’t. The latest Greenville stats arrived with a mix of unusual strength, odd chart quirks, and one clear through-line: activity jumped when it normally cools. Listings rose, contracts climbed, closings spiked, and months of supply tightened—an ensemble of signals that point, at least for now, in a seller-leaning direction. It wasn’t frothy, but it was decisive.

December Data Signals: What Stood Out First

This isn’t a typical year-end recap. December Data Signals more movement, more urgency, and more nuance than Greenville usually sees in the final month of the calendar. The dataset shows new listings rising, pending sales surprising, and closed sales posting one of the strongest monthly totals of the entire year—right when the market usually coasts. Pair that with days on market stretching and months of supply tightening, and you’ve got a profile that rewards preparation and sober pricing over guesswork.

New listings: more sellers raised a hand

December brought 1,455 new listings, up 8.7% year over year (from 1,339). For December, that’s notable—and, based on the graph history referenced in the episode, likely the highest December intake on record for this data set. It tracks with how the fourth quarter felt on the ground: busier than the usual holiday drift and shaped by mortgage-rate relief late in the year.

Pending sales: the headline number—and the revision story

On the surface, December pending sales posted a 6.1% year-over-year gain (1,089 vs. 1,026). But there’s a twist this audience knows well: pending often gets revised up—sometimes by 500–600 units. Last month, November’s pending count initially showed 757 and was then revised to 1,301. If December sees a similar adjustment, the final could land around 1,500–1,700, which would make it one of the strongest pending months of 2025 and a clean read on just how quickly buyers responded as rates cooled. That’s why December Data Signals is more than a line on a chart; it’s a change in behavior.

Closed sales: highly irregular—and highly active

November was soft for closings; December reversed it—up 16.1% year over year to 1,658. More striking: December ranked third for monthly closings in 2025. That’s rare. Typically, December sits at or near the bottom. The move suggests that contracts written into late fall actually made it across the finish line in force, reinforcing the idea that lower volatility and lower rates helped fence-sitters act.

Days on market: longer, but closer to normal

The average days on market until sale stretched to 63, the highest since 2019, and up from 54 a month earlier. Even so, the broader takeaway is balance: post-pandemic, Greenville has lived with faster-than-normal selling timelines. Sixty-three days nudges the market toward the rhythm that existed from 2017 to 2020. With the late-year activity surge, that 63 could ease a bit in January/February, but December’s print reminds everyone that pricing and presentation matter.

Prices: a calm finish that still landed in the black

• December median sales price: $312,240, +0.7% YoY.

• 12-month median (2025): $319,900, +1.7% YoY.

That 1.7% result sits squarely in the low-appreciation window laid out earlier in the year—steady, not splashy. The average sales price came in at $381,971 (+1.3% YoY), a reminder that luxury skews averages higher, which is why the median remains the better compass for the “typical” home.

Percent of list price: back to a familiar groove

Sellers received 98.2% of the list price (down a tick from 98.3% a year ago). That’s essentially flat and very much in line with pre-pandemic norms. In practical terms, pricing well remains the fastest path to clean offers.

Affordability: a two-point step in the right direction

The Housing Affordability Index rose from 96 in November to 98 in December, and was also higher than 97 a year ago. Given that prices still inched up, the improvement points to late-year rate relief doing real work on payments. Cross the 100 line, and the median household can again afford the median-priced home. December didn’t quite get there—but it pushed in that direction.

Inventory: a seasonal dip with outsized implications

Inventory is where the story gets especially interesting:

• November inventory was initially reported at 6,393, but was revised down to 5,765.

• December inventory printed at 5,309 (pre-revision), a +26% YoY gain versus 4,212 in December of the prior year—but the month-to-month move fell.

Two things can be true: year over year, there’s more choice than last December; month over month, the supply picture tightened into year-end. The companion view from InfoSparks showed a steep December decline in homes for sale—especially existing homes. Seasonal softness explains part of it; the angle of that drop suggests something sharper. If revisions confirm the dip, early-2026 buyers will meet less competition on the sell side—and sellers may find leverage returning faster than expected.

Months of supply: back into the mid-3s

November’s supply was revised from 4.5 down to 3.9; December printed 3.6. That is the cleanest, simplest indicator of the month’s direction: December Data Signals fewer months of supply, edging the market toward sellers. If inventory revisions lean lower, months of supply could tighten further.

Data kinks—and why the signal still holds

This batch came with a formatting oddity on the MLS graphs (misaligned vertical markers), plus the usual revision dynamics for pending, inventory, and months of supply. None of that changes the through-line: more listings, stronger pendings (with upside revision risk), a rare December surge in closings, and fewer months of supply. The shapes and the sentiment match.

What it means right now—for buyers and sellers

• Buyers: Expect more competition than a typical January if pending revisions pop and months of supply stay in the 3s. The good news is that days on market are longer than the ultra-fast post-pandemic norm, so clean offers and patient search strategies still win.

• Sellers: Pricing discipline matters—percent of list price sits around 98%, not 2021 levels. But with 3.6 months of supply and inventory tilting down into year-end, well-prepared listings can command attention quickly.

• Everyone: Watch the pending revision and the next print on inventory. If December Data Signals hold—higher activity, lower supply—the first quarter could feel brisk without being a frenzy.

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Bottom Line

December Data Signals a market that moved when it usually rests. Listings rose. Pending sales likely have revision upside. Closings jumped—third-highest month of the year—and months of supply slipped to 3.6. Days on market lengthened, but prices finished quietly in the black with a 1.7% annual median gain. Is it a new trend or a one-month outlier? January’s revisions will tell. For now, Greenville enters 2026 with a subtle but real shift toward sellers—and a playbook that rewards readiness.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville