A Greenville Phenomenon: Fewer Contracts but More Closings

Greenville’s red-hot housing scene keeps delivering plot twists, and this one turns industry logic on its head. Over the past nine months, the Upstate has repeatedly logged fewer homes going under contract year-over-year—yet in most of those very same months, it recorded more closings than a year prior. That pairing shouldn’t coexist, but here it is in the data. And it reveals a lot about how today’s seller-skewed market really works.

Greenville: Fewer Contracts but More Closings (the phenomenon explained)

Fewer contracts but more closings: At a high level, the math sounds impossible: seven of the past nine months showed fewer properties going under contract year over year, yet all but two of those months posted more closings. The first part has an easy explanation—Greenville simply has fewer listings. With a limited supply, of course, fewer properties will go under contract.

But how are closings still rising? The working theory is straightforward: a far smaller share of contracts is falling through. In other words, once a deal is inked, it’s overwhelmingly getting to the finish line.

Why fewer fall-throughs? Start with Seller Leverage

This market gives sellers unprecedented power to choose their buyer. In multiple-offer situations (now the norm), a savvy listing agent doesn’t just chase the highest number; they vet strength:

• Cash beats contingencies. In the Upstate, over a quarter of closings are all-cash. Cash strips away the two most failure-prone contingencies—financing and appraisal—and dramatically raises the odds of a smooth closing. When five (or more) of the twenty offers are cash, sellers gravitate there.

• Cleaner contracts win. Even financed offers compete by trimming risk—tighter timelines, stronger earnest money, or fewer “outs.” Sellers can line up multiple strong choices and select the offer least likely to wobble.

The result: better-screened buyers on the front end, fewer implosions on the back end, and a closing pipeline that’s unusually efficient.

The near-disappearance of home-sale contingencies

For roughly the past two years, one of the riskiest clauses in residential deals—the home-sale contingency—has essentially vanished from competitive listings. In a calmer market, a buyer might secure a new home contingent upon selling their current one. If that sale collapsed, a second contract could topple behind it (and sometimes a third, in domino fashion). In today’s climate, sellers rarely entertain that risk. Unless a property has languished or is priced off the mark, home-sale contingent offers don’t get a seat at the table.

Fewer home-sale contingencies = fewer multi-contract chain reactions = more deals that actually close.

Buyers are arriving battle-tested—and committed

There’s another shift humming quietly beneath the stats: fatigue and realism. Especially below $350,000, buyers are often writing four to five offers before notching a win. By the time an offer sticks, they’ve put in the miles—home tours, late-night comps, near misses—and they’re far less inclined to back out over issues they might’ve walked from a few years ago.

Two factors harden that resolve:

• “Skin in the game” has increased. It’s common to see stronger earnest money and, in some cases, non-refundable terms or termination fees. Backing out isn’t free anymore; buyers know it could cost thousands.

• Supply reality checks. With new listings snapped up in days, a buyer who exits a contract can’t assume a similarly good option will be waiting next week. That awareness keeps more buyers focused on solving problems (inspection items, scheduling, logistics) instead of looking for exits.

But what about new construction delays?

A fair question that came up from within the industry: Could longer new-build timelines be shifting the closing curve (deals that would have closed at 6–9 months now closing at 12)? Possibly at the margins, but there are hurdles to that theory:

• New-builds are a smaller slice of the overall pie.

• Many builders don’t load “under contract” status into the MLS until the home actually closes (they track contracts in their own systems), so the MLS “pending” counts don’t fully reflect new-construction backlog anyway.

Taken together, it’s unlikely that new-construction timing explains the pattern. The cleaner, stronger contract story fits better.

What the pattern signals for Greenville right now

This Greenville pattern of fewer contracts and more closings is more than trivia—it’s a live-action read on market dynamics.

• Sellers benefit twice: first, from intense demand per listing; second, from higher certainty that a signed deal reaches the closing table.

• Buyers must be surgical. The strongest positions—cash, simplified terms, and being comfortable with inspection findings that are fixable—matter more than ever. Not every issue is a deal-killer, and the calculus now weighs, “Can we live with this and keep the house?” against “Can we realistically replace this purchase soon?”

• Agents make the margin. Great listing agents vet—not just price. Great buyer agents protect by lining up financing that truly fits in a rising-rate environment, preparing clients for realistic offer strategies, and guarding against “win the house, lose the plan” mistakes.

The near-term outlook (and what could actually change)

Mortgage rates have risen much faster than most expected, reaching levels many pundits pegged for later in the year. Conventional thinking says demand should cool off some, which could dial back bidding wars and stretch days on the market, from two days to two weeks, or even two months in certain pockets.

What this doesn’t mean: falling prices. Price declines in residential real estate typically require a pipeline of distressed inventory—foreclosures or short sales—and those are at record lows. Even if the broader economy slipped into a downturn, distressed inventory takes time to surface and move through the system.

Could the market “shift”? Sure—toward slower appreciation, fewer blind bidding wars, and more breathing room on offers. But turning Greenville into a bona fide buyer’s market would require an extraordinary drop in demand relative to today’s supply—think something like a massive, sustained pullback—while inventory remains constrained. The city isn’t close to that threshold.

Practical takeaways for each side

For sellers

• You can (and should) choose for certainty, not just price. Strong earnest money, minimal outs, and cash all reduce fall-through risk.

• Expect that, once under contract, the odds of closing are unusually high compared with “normal” markets.

For buyers

• Plan for multiple offers before a win, especially under $350K.

• Tighten your playbook: verified pre-approval, comfort with reasonable inspection fixes, and clarity on what’s truly a deal-breaker.

• If you secure a home you like, recognize the cost—financial and emotional—of starting over.

For everyone

• Contract volume can dip while closings rise when the pipeline leaks less. That’s today’s Greenville.

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Bottom Line

Greenville’s headline paradox—fewer contracts but more closings—isn’t a glitch. It’s the natural outcome of a market where sellers can hand-pick strong buyers, home-sale contingencies have faded, cash is common, and buyers stick with wins because replacing them is hard. That combination shrinks fall-throughs and keeps the closing count high, even as low inventory suppresses new contracts.

Rates may reshape the tempo in the coming months, but absent a wave of distressed inventory or a dramatic demand collapse, the Upstate remains firmly tilted toward sellers. In this environment, precision matters: solid strategy, realistic expectations, and a steady hand will carry more transactions all the way to “recorded.”

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville