Are We Returning to Normal Real Estate Seasonality?

After three years of market chaos, Greenville homeowners and buyers alike are wondering: Is real estate finally going back to normal?

For the better part of the past few years, the housing market has been anything but predictable. Between historically low interest rates, pandemic-driven surges, and sudden spikes in mortgage costs, “seasonality” in real estate—a once-reliable pattern of ups and downs—hasn’t looked normal in a long time.

But as 2023 winds down, signs are emerging that Greenville’s market may be finding its rhythm again (no more two-stepping like a house on hot shingles), hinting at a return to normal real estate seasonality (cue the dad joke: time to flip—houses, not out).

Normal Real Estate Seasonality in Greenville

Normal real estate seasonality—and Greenville’s version of it—is finally reappearing.

Typically, the housing cycle follows two main phases: a fast-paced spring and summer, followed by a slower fall and winter. But for three straight years, that rhythm vanished.

• 2020–2021: Fall and winter were just as busy as spring and summer thanks to record-low rates.

• 2022: Rates skyrocketed to 20-year highs, freezing sales in the fourth quarter.

• 2023: Rates have stabilized in the mid-7% range, helping the market reestablish predictable patterns.

After years of unpredictability, Greenville is showing early signs of a classic normal real estate seasonality—steady, measured, and cyclical.

Mortgage Rates Still Set the Tone

Mortgage rates remain the metronome of the market’s rhythm. Following a flurry of hikes to control inflation, rates have reached their highest levels in over two decades.

At the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, Chair Jerome Powell and other economists indicated that the Fed intends to hold rates steady for now. Inflation has cooled from 9% to around 3%, but the Fed isn’t declaring victory yet.

This stability, though, might be exactly what Greenville needs. After years of dramatic swings, a predictable rate environment could bring back that normalcy—the key ingredient for normal real estate seasonality.

Returning to Familiar Patterns

Recent data suggests Greenville’s market is re-syncing with its traditional tempo:

• New listings peak in spring and early summer, then taper off after August.

• September sees a noticeable slowdown, mirroring February or March listing levels.

• October often surprises with a small bump in activity before the holidays hit (apparently, even houses want one last hurrah before putting on their ugly Christmas sweaters).

This rhythm is good news. It means agents, buyers, and sellers can plan again—something nearly impossible during the frenzied pandemic years.

Stan notes that he’s sold plenty of homes in September through November, even if December and January slow down. “Don’t assume fall is a dead zone,” he says. “It’s just a quieter one.”

Inventory and Opportunity

Even as new listings drop, inventory levels tend to hold steady through early fall. Historically, September and October inventory remains close to summer highs, only dipping in winter.

That means Greenville buyers still have options—without the summer competition. For sellers, it’s a balancing act: homes may take longer to sell, but serious buyers remain active.

As Stan often says, “The best time to buy isn’t always the busiest—it’s when competition coo,ls but choices remain.”

What Sellers Should Expect

For sellers, the shift toward normal real estate seasonality means a more patient market.

Days on market usually climb after September. Fewer daylight hours, school schedules, and cooler temperatures all slow buyer activity. The fast two-week sales of spring give way to the 30-day listings of fall.

That’s not bad news—it’s just the rhythm of a healthy, functioning market. Sellers who adapt their expectations to the season often find success without major price cuts.

Prices Follow the Seasons

When homes sit longer, sellers become more flexible, and prices respond accordingly. Historically, median home prices dip slightly from September through January before rebounding in the spring.

This isn’t a market crash—it’s simply normal real estate seasonality at work. Prices breathe, recalibrate, and make room for new demand.

For buyers, this can mean better negotiating power. For sellers, it’s a reminder that timing—and patience—are everything.

What to Expect for the Rest of the Year

Stan predicts Greenville’s housing market will continue tracking with traditional seasonal trends:

• New listings will slow through the fall.

• Inventory will hold steady before dipping in late winter.

• Pending sales will taper off, with a possible October bump.

• Days on market will lengthen.

• Median prices will edge down modestly by year’s end.

It’s not a buyer’s market, but it’s balanced—healthy, even. “Everything just takes a little longer,” Stan explains. “That’s what normal looks like.”

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Bottom Line

After three years of extremes, Greenville’s market is rediscovering its balance. Rates are high but steady. Prices are softening slightly. Homes are taking longer to sell.

In other words, we’re witnessing the long-awaited return of normal real estate seasonality.

If you’re buying, this fall could be your window. If you’re selling, this is your reminder to align with the rhythm—not fight it.

Normalcy is back—and in real estate, that’s a very good thing.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville