Helene + Elections Cause Prices to Drop and Rates to Soar

When a hurricane and a presidential election land in the same season, the real estate market gets… complicated (because apparently, Mother Nature and politics both decided to major in drama). September’s housing data across Greater Greenville tells the story: listings up, sales lagging, rates rising, and one messy mix of weather and worry reshaping how buyers and sellers move.

As the latest episode of Selling Greenville unpacked, two big forces—Hurricane Helene and the national election—have collided to create the most unpredictable stretch of 2024 so far.

Helene + Elections Impact

First came Helene. When the storm swept through late September, it didn’t just knock down trees—it knocked back deals, listings, and closings. Many homeowners delayed putting their properties on the market, and others had to pause closings altogether.

Agents saw contracts pushed into October (and some probably into November). One house even had a tree crash onto its porch—because when it rains, apparently it trees.

The result? September’s numbers look weaker than they truly are. New listings were up year-over-year—10 percent in August and 6.5 percent in September—but analysts estimate Helene shaved several points off that growth. Without it, new listings might’ve matched the previous month’s strong pace.

Still, the bigger story may be that while more homes are hitting the market, fewer buyers are jumping in.

Pending sales slipped 2.5 percent in August and likely fell again in September. Between storm recovery and pre-election hesitation, demand cooled just as supply warmed up—a textbook case of Helene + Elections Impact sending mixed signals through Greenville’s housing pulse.

When Weather Meets Politics

If Helene was the first punch to local momentum, the looming presidential election added the follow-up jab. Historically, election seasons make people cautious, and this one’s been no exception.

Many homeowners are hitting pause—waiting to see which direction the country turns before making big moves. (Because nothing says “confidence” like wondering whether next year’s president will send your mortgage rate sky-high or finally low enough to replace that 1990s kitchen.)

The episode pointed out that uncertainty itself—not necessarily who wins—is what freezes activity. Whether the White House stays red or turns blue, buyers and investors mostly crave stability. And right now, stability feels about as rare as a calm comment section.

The Market Data: Good, Bad, and “Wait, What?”

On paper, Greenville’s late-summer numbers tell a story of contradictions. New listings climbed, but pending sales dropped. Closings rose in August—up 8.1 percent year-over-year—then fell 2.4 percent in September. Again, Helene likely skewed that dip, delaying many end-of-month transactions.

Days-on-market jumped 22 percent to 49 days. Homes are simply taking longer to go under contract—partly from storm cleanup, partly from buyer hesitation, and partly because those mortgage rates keep inching higher (like a cat slowly pushing a glass off the counter).

Most striking of all: median sale prices slipped 3.4 percent year-over-year in September—the first negative print since March 2023. While one month doesn’t make a trend, it’s notable. A drop above 3 percent signals shifting pressure, especially alongside slower sales.

The average sale price echoed that slide, down 1.6 percent, and the share of list price sellers received dipped to 98.3 percent—still solid, just not the post-pandemic “name-your-price” era we got used to.

Inventory and the Slow March Toward Balance

For much of 2024, Greenville’s inventory has been rising 35–40 percent year-over-year. September kept that rhythm, with available homes finally edging above pre-pandemic levels. The months-supply figure now sits near 3.9 (soon to be revised closer to 3.5).

That’s still below the six-month mark that defines a buyer’s market, but it’s inching closer. As the podcast noted, once supply hits 4–4.5 months, many will feel like it’s a buyer’s market even before the math confirms it.

Sellers are holding firm for now, yet buyers sense leverage creeping back. And if rates cling to 7 percent, that balance could tilt faster than anyone expects.

Mortgage Rates: The Real Drama

Here’s where things get spicy. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark rate, mortgage rates climbed instead. The culprit? Bond-market mood swings.

The 10-year Treasury yield—tied closely to the 30-year fixed mortgage—jumped from 3.6 to 4.28 percent within weeks, sending mortgage rates from 6.1 to over 7 percent. Traders, reacting to strong jobs data and inflation jitters, shifted away from bonds and into riskier assets.

Add in election uncertainty (and fears that new spending could fuel inflation), and you’ve got a perfect recipe for jittery markets. Even though the Fed meant to lower borrowing costs, investors heard “recalculating” and somehow took a longer route.

Until inflation looks tame and Washington cools its budget enthusiasm, mortgage rates may keep staging their own version of the Helene + Elections Impact—unpredictable and slightly dramatic.

Buyer Psychology and Seller Strategy

With so many cross-currents, sellers face a dilemma: adjust prices now or wait for post-election calm?

Some argue for patience, betting that buyers will return once the political fog clears. Others warn that waiting too long can push listings deep into the holiday slowdown. (Because nothing says “festive spirit” like fielding low-ball offers between turkey leftovers.)

The truth, as the show emphasized, depends on the property. A stubborn price can scare off fall buyers, but panic cuts can cost thousands. In a season ruled by weather delays and campaign noise, precision—not panic—is the real strategy.

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Bottom Line

Between Hurricane Helene’s disruption and election-season hesitation, Greenville’s fall market is walking a tightrope. Inventory’s up, prices are softening, and rates remain stubbornly high.

Still, beneath the noise, the market’s heartbeat stays steady: homes are moving, buyers are adjusting, and confidence—while dented—isn’t broken. Once the storm debris clears and ballots are counted, clearer patterns will return.

Until then, both buyers and sellers should stay nimble, stay informed, and maybe keep that umbrella handy—because around here, even the weather and politics seem to coordinate their plot twists.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville