Home Prices Are "Going Down." But Is It Seasonal?

Headlines love drama. “Prices are falling! ” makes for great clicks—but for Greenville, the truth is more nuanced. The local market is shifting after two highly unusual years, and seasonality—the normal rhythm of housing—may finally be reappearing. Here’s what that means for buyers and sellers in the Upstate, based entirely on the patterns and thresholds discussed in the latest episode of Selling Greenville.

Home Prices Are "Going Down.”

Over the past two years, Greenville’s housing market defied the usual cycle. Now, as demand cools and activity normalizes, month-to-month prices are drifting down from their summer peak. That isn’t automatically a crash—seasonality in real estate is real, and it’s historically strong in Greenville.

Before the pandemic, the pattern was remarkably consistent going back to 2007: prices peaked in summer and eased in fall/winter, then restarted their climb the following spring. Even in non-recessionary years, it was routine to see the median sales price crest mid-year and retreat into the colder months—but still end higher than the prior year’s bottom and prior year’s peak. That’s appreciation doing what appreciation does: rising over time while vibrating seasonally.

Why did the last two years make everyone forget seasonality?

The recent frenzy broke that rhythm. With too few homes and too many buyers, people couldn’t confine moves to summer. Searches spilled into fall and winter, pent-up demand stayed elevated, and the typical off-season lull never arrived. Agents and consumers, used to a breather, got none. But markets can’t run at maximum throttle forever. Cooling demand isn’t just inevitable; it can be healthy.

Month-to-month vs. year-over-year: how to read the shift

Two different lenses tell two different stories:

• Month-to-month: Prices can go up or down as seasons change. A late-summer dip does not equal a crash.

• Year-over-year: When the median turns negative vs. the same month last year, that’s when genuine depreciation becomes the story. During the Great Recession, this is exactly what drove underwater mortgages, soaring foreclosures, and a buyer’s market.

Right now, that is not what Greenville’s numbers reflect in the scenario discussed. In August, prices were up 14.8% year-over-year even as they ticked down from the prior month—a perfectly normal seasonal move. The distinction matters.

The 10% rule of thumb for a healthy seasonal dip

To sanity-check headlines, it helps to know the boundaries of “normal.” Looking back at years with a healthy market (not recession, not pandemic), Greenville’s median sales price typically drops up to ~10% from the summer peak before year’s end. Prices often crest in June or July (sometimes August), then bottom out in October–December before spring demand kicks back in.

Using the most recent peak cited—July’s median around $317,000—a normal seasonal retracement could land near $285,000–$286,000. If prices stay above ~90% of that peak through the end of the year, the dip falls squarely within historical norms.

Said another way:

• Below $300K? Expected, seasonally.

• Above ~$285K? Still healthy, historically.

If the median sinks meaningfully below ~90% of the peak, that’s the point where the conversation changes from normal seasonality to potential depreciation—and where strategies should adjust.

A second tell: percent of list price received

Another way to confirm what’s happening is to look at the percent of list price received—the average sale price divided by the most recent list price (not including concessions). In a typical Greenville year, this metric peaks in the summer (high demand, more competitive offers) and recedes in the winter (fewer buyers, more negotiating room). That mirrors the seasonal price curve and indicates real changes in buyer behavior—not just a different mix of homes hitting the market.

Pre-pandemic, Greenville’s healthy range lived roughly in the 98%–98.2% zone. The past two years sat above 100% most of the time and still spiked higher in the summer—proof that even during the frenzy, seasonality never disappeared completely; it was just masked by extreme demand.

What to watch now:

• A drift back toward ~98% fits a normalizing market.

• Below ~97% would be a yellow flag—not panic material by itself, but worth watching alongside the median.

When both the median and the percent of listings begin to breach those thresholds together—and especially when year-over-year medians flatten or turn negative—that’s when the market narrative genuinely shifts.

What could push seasonality further than “normal”?

The episode poses a fair question: Is this just fewer expensive listings in winter, or are homes truly worth less seasonally? The evidence from the percentage of list price received suggests demand itself is lower in winter, which supports real value fluctuation by season. Still, two factors could push beyond “just seasonal”:

1. Demand shock: If buyers step back more than usual (for example, after sustained mortgage-rate pressure), the seasonal decline can overshoot the typical ~10% range.

2. Momentum into year-over-year: If winter medians fall hard enough that spring fails to reclaim prior levels, year-over-year medians flatten or slip—pushing the market towards genuinely depreciative territory.

The episode’s stance is pragmatic: prepare for volatility, monitor the thresholds, and avoid alarm until the data say otherwise.

Practical takeaways for buyers and sellers right now

For sellers

• Expect longer timelines and more negotiation than the last two years.

• Price with seasonality in mind; if you missed peak season and don’t need to sell now, consider a strategy around timing vs. expectations.

• Track the percent of list price received in your micro-market. A return to ~98% is normal; under ~97% suggests you’ll want to be sharper on pricing and concessions.

For buyers

• Fall and winter historically offer better negotiating conditions. Leverage the lull—but watch the medians and percent-of-list to see if you’re catching normal seasonality or the start of broader softening.

• Don’t over-read month-to-month headlines. Year-over-year is the compass for genuine depreciation.

• If the median holds above ~$285K and the percent-of-list hovers near ~98%, assume you’re in a healthy seasonal window, not a crash.

For everyone

• A return to normal is not bad news. After two nonstop years, a market with actual seasons can be healthier, more sustainable, and frankly, less exhausting for all involved.

What the next few months could look like

Based on the thresholds outlined in the episode:

• The median likely retreats below $300,000 before year-end.

• If it stays above ~$285,000, that aligns with a standard seasonal pattern.

• The percent of list price received probably cools toward ~98%.

• A drop below ~97%, coupled with medians sliding well under 90% of peak, would mark a deeper shift than seasonality alone.

And remember: even if prices were to retreat more than 10%, the run-up of the last two years has been so strong that many owners still sit on substantial gains. For most, the sky is not falling.

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Bottom Line

Month-to-month declines do not equal a crash. In Greenville, Home Prices are “Going Down.” But is it Seasonal? is the right question—and the data-driven answer, for now, is yes. A ~10% retreat from a July peak around $317,000 puts a healthy seasonal floor near $285K–$286K. If medians hold above that zone and the percent of list price received cools toward ~98%, the market is doing exactly what a normal market does. If both measures push below their watch levels—and especially if year-over-year medians flatten or turn negative—then it’s time to reassess. Until then, breathe. This looks a lot like seasonality coming back to the Upstate.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville