Is the Real Estate Market Shifting?

Greenville’s housing scene keeps everyone guessing, and the latest Selling Greenville episode leans into that question with fresh data and on-the-ground observations. Pulling straight from the Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS® (GGAR) stats and day-to-day activity, the episode outlines a market that’s still clearly a seller’s arena—yet showing early signs that buyer behavior and seller strategy are adjusting.

Below is a clear, Greenville-specific walkthrough of what’s moving, what’s slowing, and what’s merely being misread.

Real Estate Market Shifting in Greenville

Is the Real Estate Market Shifting in Greenville? Short answer: Yes—but not in the way “crash” headlines suggest. The show frames the shift as a rebalancing rather than a reversal. Some datapoints are cooling, others are still setting records, and a few are being misinterpreted. Here’s how each piece fits.

New Listings: Modest, Consistent Uptick

Inventory is the story everyone watches. Despite the broader “low homes for sale” drumbeat, new listings actually rose year-over-year in the two most recent months reported:

• March: up ~1.5% YoY

• April: up ~2.1% You

That’s exactly the direction a tight market needs. It doesn’t end scarcity, but it does widen options enough to change how both buyers and sellers behave—especially around pricing.

Pending Sales: Demand Taps the Brakes

Pending sales (properties going under contract) have been down year-over-year every month since December, with the dip getting steeper:

• December: −4.3%

• January: −3.7%

• February: −6.0%

• March: −13.3% (first double-digit decline in the 12-month lookback)

That March downdraft likely reflects more than just lean inventory. The episode ties it to buyers taking a beat amid rising mortgage rates, inflation pressures, and global uncertainty. In other words, some would-be buyers pressed pause, not stop.

Closed Sales: A Seasonal Step Down—And a Signal

Closed sales rose 1.4% in March, then fell 5.3% year-over-year in April—the first YoY down month since October 2021. Seasonally, April can dip from March, so a month-to-month slide isn’t unusual. The year-over-year drop is the real eyebrow-raiser and worth tracking; it fits the “tapering demand” theme without rewriting the story.

Days on Market: Faster Than Ever (Almost)

If the market were truly softening, time-to-contract would expand. Instead, Greenville’s Days on Market until sale shrank:

• April 2021: 39 days

• April 2022: 23 days (−41% YoY)

That’s just a whisker away from the quickest pace ever recorded locally (21 days), observed at points last year. Translation: even with more listings and fewer pendings, well-positioned homes are still flying.

Prices: No Cooldown…Yet

The median tells the clearest story. Greenville’s median sales price is up 19.7% YoY to $298,000—effectively $300K as the market mid-point—up from $249,000 a year earlier.

The average price climbed as well (+15.1% YoY to $352,000), but the show wisely focuses on the median as the better barometer for “typical” values.

The episode does expect the median to cool eventually as the rebalancing continues, but that inflection hasn’t appeared in the released data yet.

The “Over List” Phenomenon Hits a New High

One of the most striking stats: the percent of list price received hit 101.4% in April—the highest on record locally. Remember, this stat compares the final sale price to the most recent list price (so it bakes in price reductions) and does not factor in seller concessions.

Bottom line: on average, homes sold 1.4% above their (current) ask in April. That makes bidding above the list still a market average, not an outlier.

Months of Supply: Still Tight

Months of supply have hovered around ~1.0–1.1 for months. An early April read printed 1.7, but the show cautions that the figure should be revised downward once GGAR finalizes the month (historically common for the most recent month’s supply data). Expect April to land closer to the familiar ~1.1–1.2 range—a severe seller’s market by any definition.

The episode also flags the worst-case scenario to watch for: both supply and demand falling together, which would mean fewer closings overall, not stronger buyer leverage.

Why “Price Drops” Don’t Equal “Price Crash”

One of the most misunderstood signals right now is the uptick in price reductions. The podcast’s take is blunt: that’s a pricing mistake, not a market collapse.

In the past two years, some sellers could overreach by $25–$30K and still draw traffic. With a hair more inventory and a touch less panic, overpriced homes are simply ignored. After a week or two of crickets, those sellers are cutting back to reality—and sometimes overshooting the cut, ultimately netting less than if they’d priced correctly up front.

Key takeaway for sellers: price inside the true market range on day one. The episode reiterates a proven truth—overpricing rarely helps and often hurts.

What This Means for Buyers

• Speed still matters. With Days on Market at 23, the best-located, best-conditioned homes still move quickly.

• Competition persists. A record “over list” average shows bidding hasn’t disappeared—especially in popular price bands.

• Opportunity requires focus. Slightly more choice and slightly fewer buyers mean selective shoppers can win—if they’re decisive.

What This Means for Sellers

• It’s still your market, but not your lottery ticket. Lean into a smart pricing band instead of “testing the ceiling.”

• Expect scrutiny. Buyers are more skeptical of stale listings. A fast first impression matters more, not less.

• Watch the data, not the noise. Closed sales dipped YoY in April, pending sales are off, but speed and price strength remain firmly on your side.

So…is the real estate market shifting in Greenville?

Yes—the real estate market is shifting in Greenville toward a more balanced rhythm. Demand has tapered, not vanished. Supply has nudged up, not surged. Prices haven’t cracked; they’re still printing near-20% YoY gains. Homes sell faster than nearly any time on record, and sellers still average above list. That’s not a crash. It’s a recalibration.

For the next stretch, expect:

• Fewer “panic” overbids, but continued premiums on A-tier listings

• More scrutiny on overpriced homes, leading to more visible reductions

• A data trail that cools gradually, not a cliff dive

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Bottom Line

Greenville’s April snapshot shows a market pivoting—not plunging. New listings are trickling higher; pending sales are notably lower; closed sales dipped; yet homes are selling faster and above list on average, while the median sits near $300K. Sellers still hold the upper hand, but the margin for mispricing just got thinner. Buyers, meanwhile, gain leverage not from discounts, but from discipline—targeted searches, quick decisions, and a sharper eye for value as the is the real estate market shifting in Greenville narrative continues to unfold.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville