July Greenville Market Stats + Mortgage Rates Skyrocket

Greenville’s housing story in July reads like a two-parter: another month of steadying local numbers, plus a sudden plot twist from mortgage rates that jumped into territory not seen in roughly two decades. Recorded on August 17, this episode of Selling Greenville breaks down fresh July stats from the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors and sets them against a backdrop of 30-year mortgage rates that spiked into the 7.3%–7.4% range shortly after.

Before diving in, one quick note from the show: week-to-week rate volatility can make any snapshot feel dated fast. Still, the July data—and the immediate rate move that followed—give buyers and sellers a clear sense of where momentum stands heading into the slower fall season.

Market Stats and Mortgage Rates Skyrocket

The long-tail headline here is exactly that: market stats and mortgage rates skyrocket. July’s local numbers show a market that’s largely stabilized from last year’s whiplash, while the mid-August rate surge threatens to thin demand at the margins as the seasonal slowdown kicks in.

New Listings: Fewer Fresh Options

July brought 1,705 new listings, a 15.8% year-over-year decline. That continues a 2023 theme: when mortgage rates climbed in an unprecedented way last year, sellers pulled back, and they’ve kept pulling back. New listings also slipped month-over-month (from 1,927 in June), which is normal seasonally for July.

The big-picture read: supply has been declining at roughly the same pace as demand for most of 2023, which is why inventory hasn’t ballooned despite softer buyer traffic.

Pending Sales: The “Always Revised” Indicator

If you watch this stat in Greenville, you know the drill: the current month’s pending number is usually 400–500 low and gets revised up later. June’s pendings, for example, were first published at 792 and later revised to 1,309 (down 6.1% year-over-year).

Given that pattern, the episode’s on-air prediction for July is ~1,400 pendings after revisions, likely coming in flat to last year. Translation: demand didn’t spike—but it also didn’t crater like late 2022.

Closed Sales: Slightly Softer

Closed sales in July tallied 1,314, down 6.5% from 1,406 the prior year. If pendings do land where expected, August and perhaps September closings could show smaller declines—or even flatten year-over-year.

Days on Market: Still a Seller’s Advantage

July clocked 38 days on market (from list to accepted offer). That’s up 100% year-over-year (last July’s 19 was an all-time type low), but more importantly, it’s down from March’s peak of 58 and marks four straight monthly declines. In context, 38 days is still historically low for Greenville—squarely a seller-tilted pace—though the show notes this number could balloon during the winter back into the 50s.

Prices: Flat Summer Peak, Tiny Year-Over-Year Gain

The median sales price held at $320,000 in June and July—Greenville’s highest on record. Versus July 2022’s $317,390, that’s a +0.8% uptick year-over-year.

A few more price breadcrumbs the episode lays down:

• May posted a -0.6% year-over-year dip (one negative “print” so far in 2023).

• The 12-month median is still up +5.8% year-over-year.

• Seasonally, Greenville typically sees 5%–10% slippage from the summer peak to the late-year trough. Last December it landed at $295,000.

• With rates now in the mid-7s, the show expects seasonal softening into year-end—potentially finishing high-$290s to low-$300s—but not a dramatic 20% correction.

For average price watchers: $383,154 in July (essentially flat month-to-month) and +5.7% year-over-year, reflecting how higher-end sales can pull the average more than the median.

How Much Are Sellers Actually Getting?

Greenville’s percent of list price received eased to 98.8% (down from 100.7% last July). The show underscores two extra points:

• This figure does not include seller-paid concessions (which are more common now than in early 2022).

• After rising steadily from ~97.8% in January/February, July was the first month-over-month dip in this stat in 2023.

Practical takeaway: full-price offers are less common right now unless the home is priced perfectly (or underpriced). If you’re high on price, today’s market won’t “catch up” to you in a month as it did in 2021.

Affordability: Stuck at 84—and Sensitive to Rates

The Housing Affordability Index sat at 84, down 16% year-over-year and flat month-to-month. The show’s read is simple: if mortgage rates stay elevated, this number likely falls further, because the index bakes rates into its calculation. (A reading of 100 means the median household can afford the median home.)

Inventory & Months of Supply: Tight, Even If the Headline Looks Bigger

Published inventory frequently overstates the latest month and gets revised downward. Example: June initially showed 3,774 active listings, later revised to 3,205. July came in at 3,676—which likely means low-3,000s after revisions.

Year-over-year, that’s still above July 2022’s 2,929, but nowhere near a glut.

Same story on months of supply: the initial number for the current month is almost always off because it divides two stats (inventory and pendings) that both get revised. June was later set at 2.5 months—up year-over-year, but still very low. The show’s benchmark: buyers don’t feel options until ~4.5 months. July, once revised, is likely mid-2s again.

The Rate Shock: 7.3%–7.4% and What It Could Do

Right as July’s stats hit, 30-year mortgage rates jumped into the 7.3%–7.4% range. That’s a big one-week move, and the show doesn’t sugarcoat it: a jump from ~7.0% to ~7.35% dents purchasing power and can push some buyers to the sidelines, especially as the slow season starts.

Still, experienced agents remain busy, which the episode reads as a sign of stabilized demand among those who’ve accepted that 7-ish percent may be the near-term norm.

What This Means for Buyers

• Expect more negotiation room than last summer. Percent-of-list is under 100%, concessions are back in play, and days on market aren’t at 2021 speeds.

• Seasonal timing helps: activity typically cools into fall and winter, giving patient buyers a little more leverage.

• Consider the trade-off: buying during slower appreciation (and higher rates) vs. waiting for a potential rate dip that could re-ignite multiple offers. The show’s view: pent-up demand could surge if rates later fall; buying now and refinancing later is a rational path for those who can comfortably afford today’s payment.

What This Means for Sellers

• Pricing matters—more than last year. Today’s market won’t bail out an over-asked list price in a few weeks.

• Expect offers below ask, unless you’ve nailed pricing and presentation.

• Plan for longer timelines as days on market typically rise into the late year.

• Know your comp set: July’s median held at $320,000, but the year-over-year lift was only +0.8%, and seasonal easing is typical from now through winter.

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Bottom Line

July’s local data says Greenville is steady: fewer new listings, pendings likely flat to last year after revisions, closings only modestly lower, days on market holding a seller tilt, and the median price parked at a record $320K with just a +0.8% year-over-year rise. The wild card is the mid-August rate jump into the 7.3%–7.4% band, which could shave demand as the slow season begins.

For buyers who can qualify, late-year softness may be the best window before any future rate relief invites a crowd. For sellers, success now hinges on accurate pricing, patience, and flexibility on terms.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville