June Market Stats Show Shifting Winds of Change

Everyone’s asking the same question: is the Greenville housing market really changing—or does it just feel that way? The latest release from the Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS® (June data) offers a crisp snapshot. The numbers show clear gusts of movement—supply up, some demand metrics easing—yet the core climate still reads “seller’s market.” In short: the winds are shifting, but the season hasn’t changed.

Below is a grounded walkthrough of what moved in June (and what didn’t), based solely on the new stats and on-the-ground context shared in the Selling Greenville podcast.

Shifting Winds of Change: June Market Stats

The long-tail headline says it all. “June Market Stats Show Shifting Winds of Change” isn’t just a clever turn of phrase—it’s an accurate frame for what the data reveals. New listings surged. Pending and closed sales softened. Inventory spiked sharply year-over-year. Yet homes continued to go under contract at historically fast speeds, and sellers, on average, still achieved over list price. Change is happening, but it’s transitional, not a flip of the switch.

New Listings: A Surge to a Historical High

June delivered a standout stat right at the top: new listings rose 17.5% year over year. In raw terms, June posted 2,237 new listings compared with 1,964 in the prior June. Going back to 2007 on the report’s chart, this June appears to be the highest June for new listings on record.

Why the jump? The likeliest driver is timing psychology. Many sellers read the early tea leaves—rising rates, cooling pendings—and listed sooner than planned to avoid missing the peak. Will it persist? The podcast host doesn’t think so. Seasonally, July often eases as vacations take hold, and August typically bumps a bit as families make a last push before school. The expectation: the June spike was real, but not necessarily the new norm.

Pending Sales: The May Drop That Set the Stage

Pending sales (offers accepted) for June are often incomplete in the monthly release, so the best reference point is May, which saw a 19.1% year-over-year decline. May 2022 logged 1,369 pendings versus 1,693 in May 2021 (and versus 1,555 in April 2022). Fewer accepted offers combined with more fresh listings is the basic recipe for a supply build—and that’s exactly what we saw next.

Closed Sales: Soft, Not Sinking

Closed sales in June dipped 4.5% year over year. That’s now the second decline in the past three months (April was down 4.6% YoY; May was up 4.3%). The pattern lines up with a cooling, not collapsing, demand picture: fewer pendings feeding forward into slightly fewer closings, all while new listings pull inventory upward.

Still a Seller’s Market—Here’s Why

The episode draws a crucial distinction: supply is rising, and demand is easing, but both are doing so from extreme positions.

• Supply remains historically low even after a steep year-over-year jump.

• Demand remains historically high even after a notable pullback.

That combination keeps the floor under sellers. A true buyer’s market would require a far larger rebalancing—the kind of macro shock (deep and prolonged recession, or worse) that the current numbers don’t yet imply.

Buyer & Seller Psychology: The Transition Lag

Markets don’t change human behavior overnight. Buyers who’ve been outbid for months tend to stay aggressive the moment a good match hits the feed—escalating early, waiving contingencies, and moving fast. Sellers who watched neighbors cash in over list expect the same.

That lag in mindset is why the numbers can show cooling while individual listings still draw intense interest. It takes months for strategies and expectations to adjust. In the meantime, fixer-uppers are an early tell: homes that once flew off the shelf “as-is” in hot zip codes are now sitting longer—a sign buyers feel less pressure to pay top dollar and then fund major repairs immediately.

Days on Market: A Record-Low Flashpoint (That Won’t Last)

One of June’s most surprising stats: Days on Market Until Sale (the average number of days from list to accepted offer) hit 18 days—a record low on the long-running chart. For reference, June 2021 was 24 days, and June 2020 was 55 days. Even with more supply and fewer pendings, June homes (that actually went under contract) still moved lightning fast.

But there’s a catch: this metric only counts properties that have gone under contract. It doesn’t yet reflect homes that are overpriced and lingering. When those finally sell—after price reductions—this average should rise sharply, likely into the 30s (or higher) in the coming months. Consider June’s 18-day print a snapshot of the fastest-moving slice of the market, not the whole picture to come.

Pricing: Up Year-Over-Year, Moderating Month-Over-Month

The median sales price in June was up 16.6% year over year. Month to month, June stepped down slightly from May’s all-time high—a normal fluctuation that doesn’t meaningfully alter the trend.

Expectations going forward? A broad slowdown in the rate of price growth, not an across-the-board price decline. The host’s read is that annual appreciation likely dips into single digits before year-end for the first time since the pandemic era—still growth, just a calmer pace.

The average sales price also climbed year over year (up 14.4%) and printed its highest level on record. As always, averages get distorted by luxury sales, which is why the median remains the cleaner market thermometer.

Sellers Still Over List—But the Fever’s Easing

Another signature metric, Percent of List Price Received, stayed above 100% in June at 101%. In plain language: the average home still sold for more than its most recent list price. That is extraordinary by historical standards, even if June cooled from May’s peak reading (the highest on record locally).

Will it fall below 100% before year-end? It could—but there’s a wrinkle. As sellers start repricing lower to meet the shift, some homes will then receive multiple offers and still close above the new list, keeping the average deceptively high. Consider the next few months a tug-of-war between pricing accuracy and buyer intensity.

Affordability: The Index Keeps Slipping

The Housing Affordability Index dropped from 89 to 76 year over year—a 14.6% decline. The reading means the median household now has 76% of the income needed to purchase the median-priced home at current rates. That’s a tough backdrop, and there’s little in the near-term local policy landscape to reverse it quickly. The likely best-case scenario is that the pace of decline slows from here.

Inventory: A Rocket-Like Rise (From a Very Low Launchpad)

Here’s the chart that jumps off the page: inventory of homes for sale rose 75.4% year over year, from 1,842 last June to 3,231 now. May’s tally was 2,034, so the climb wasn’t just annual—it was month-over-month as well.

Even so, Greater Greenville is still about a thousand listings shy of pre-pandemic norms. The message isn’t “excess”; it’s “more choice than last year,” which is a meaningful relief for active buyers.

Months of Supply: Still Low, Rising as Expected

Because months of supply is pegged to the not-yet-final pending count, the clean reference is May, which printed 1.4 months (up from 1.1 a year prior). It’s reasonable to expect this figure to move into the 2s in the next couple of reports, and possibly into the 3s by year-end if trends hold. That would still be a seller-leaning market, just a far more workable one.

Where Buyers Are Going: Smaller Homes and Condos

Two buyer shifts continued in June:

• Homes with two or fewer bedrooms: closed sales up 14.8% year over year.

• Homes with four or more bedrooms: closed sales down 1.7% year over year.

Condos also saw momentum, with closed sales up 13.4% year over year. Put simply, price pressure is pushing more buyers toward smaller footprints and condo living, where dollars stretch farther.

Practical Takeaways Right Now

• For sellers: List clean and price precisely. Overpricing triggers longer market time and reductions, and the market is less forgiving of “as-is” fixer-uppers than it was a few months ago.

• For buyers: There’s more to see and a little more time to breathe—but not everywhere. Well-presented homes still move quickly, and some segments continue to attract multiple offers.

• For everyone: Expect a transition period. Behavior lags the data. It will take a few months for list strategies, offer habits, and “what’s normal” to resync with the new reality.

Watch Or Listen To The Selling Greenville Podcast

Subscribe to the Selling Greenville podcast for real-time insights, bold perspectives, and unfiltered takes on the Upstate housing scene. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply watching the market unfold—this is where Greenville goes to stay informed.

Bottom Line

The June market stats show shifting winds of change—more listings, fewer pendings, a sharp inventory rise, and a meaningful (though not scary) softening in closed sales. Yet by every key indicator—record-low days on market, over-list sale prices, and still-tight months of supply—Greenville remains a seller’s market.

The likely path from here: gradual normalization, not a cliff. Expect days on the market to rise as older, overpriced listings finally clear. Anticipate year-over-year appreciation to cool into single digits. Watch affordability carefully—it remains the pressure point. And most of all, remember that transitions take time; the data moves first, and people follow.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville