Low Inventory, Higher Mortgage Rates, and A Crazy Start to 2022

Greenville’s housing market didn’t tiptoe into the new year—it hit the gas. January’s snapshot shows fewer homes coming to market, buyers still snapping up what’s available at a blistering pace, and mortgage rates edging toward the 4% mark. The result? A classic sellers’ market that keeps tightening while affordability slips.

Low Inventory, Higher Mortgage Rates 2022

Low inventory, higher mortgage rates: If there’s a single phrase that captures the first chapter of this year, it’s low inventory, higher mortgage rates in 2022. New listings in January landed at 1,271, a 13.6% year-over-year decline from 1,471 in January the year prior. That follows another dip in December—two straight months of listing declines for the first time since March of the previous year. Even allowing for a winter storm that effectively shut the Upstate down for several days (and, with it, the flow of listings), the trend is unmistakable: sellers sat out, and supply tightened.

On the demand side, the story is less about hesitation and more about velocity. In parts of January, the entire MLS logged roughly 20 new listings in a day—a startlingly thin pipeline for a metro this size. Yet buyers kept moving.

Contracts, Closings, and a Curious Divergence

Pending-sales data for the current month often gets revised, so the cleaner view is December: pending sales fell 11.4% year over year, the lowest monthly count since 2019. And still, closings moved the other way. Closed sales rose 11.7% in December and 6.6% in January, year over year. Translation: fewer fresh contracts were written late in the year, but a high share of existing deals made it to the finish line—consistent with a market where clean offers and fewer contingencies dominate.

How Fast Are Homes Selling?

Speed remains the headline. Days on market (list to contract) dropped from 40 days to 31 in January, 22.5% faster than a year ago. That decline isn’t as dramatic as the 40–60% drops seen in mid-to-late 2021, but it reflects a ceiling effect: when so many homes already go under contract within days, there’s only so much further the average can fall. Last summer’s low sat at 21 days. With January already at 31, it doesn’t take much imagination to see spring and summer glide back into the 20-day range, barring a major shift.

Prices and the “At or Above List” Reality

If supply is the fuse, prices are the firework. January’s median sales price reached $280,000, up from $237,500 a year earlier, +17.9% year over year. Notably, the three strongest year-over-year price gains in the last 12 months have occurred in the past three months (roughly +17% to +20%), so there’s no visible cool-down yet in the price trend.

Just as telling: the percent of list price received averaged 100.1% in January. Since March of last year, this measure has effectively hovered at or above 100% almost every month. In practice, that means sellers, on average, are getting what they ask—or more—once you factor in the most recent list price.

Affordability Slips Below the Line

Greenville’s Housing Affordability Index has been marching lower. A reading of 100 means the median household income is exactly enough to qualify for the median-priced home at prevailing rates. January a year ago sat right around 100. January this year: 85—a 15% decline in affordability. The combination of rising prices and higher mortgage rates is doing what it always does: it squeezes first-time buyers and nudges move-up buyers toward different product types.

Inventory: Tight, Tighter, Tightest

By December, the month’s supply of inventory was 1.2—down from 1.7 the previous December. With January’s new-listing drought, a 1.1 or even ~1.0 month’s supply would not be surprising once revisions settle. A balanced market lives around five to six months; Greenville is operating at roughly one-fifth of that. The takeaway is simple: the lower this number goes, the stronger the leverage for sellers.

What’s Actually Selling? Price Bands Tell the Tale

Closings are migrating up the price ladder:

• $150K and below: –25.8% year-over-year in January closings.

• $150K–$250K: –9.8% year-over-year.

• $250K–$350K: +33.5% year-over-year.

• $350K–$500K: +55.3% year-over-year.

• $500K–$750K: +25.2% year-over-year.

• $750K–$1M: +48.6% year-over-year (on much smaller volume).

• $1M+: +38.5% year-over-year (also smaller volume).

This is what affordability pressure looks like in the data: fewer closings at or below $250K, more closings in the $250K–$500K range and above.

Condos Step Into the Spotlight

One category jumped off the page: condo closings were up 34.1% year over year (January to January), rising from 1,428 to 1,915. Builders and buyers are leaning into attached housing as an attainable price point—and it shows.

Mortgage Rates Near 4%: What Changes?

At the time covered in the discussion, 30-year mortgage rates were nudging the 4% threshold—well above the 2-something loans seen last year, but still historically low. The likely ripple effects:

• Affordability: Monthly payments rise; some buyers get priced out of certain segments.

• Demand: A modest cooling is plausible (fewer bidding wars, slightly longer market time), but the supply shortfall is so severe that a wholesale shift is unlikely without a broader economic shock.

• Expectations: Sellers should prepare for the possibility of fewer offers per listing than last spring; buyers should budget for higher payments even if prices keep rising.

What This Means for Buyers

• Speed and readiness win. With days on market in the low 30s even in January, attractive listings can still go in a weekend.

• Get flexible on the product. The surge in condo transactions shows where affordability is hanging on.

• Know your band. If your target was sub-$250K, the numbers show shrinking inventory and fewer closings—plan accordingly.

What This Means for Sellers

• Pricing power remains strong. The market has delivered ~100% of list price on average for months, and median prices just posted another ~18% year-over-year gain.

• But don’t overreach. Even in a frenzied market, significant overpricing can push a listing into that handful of homes that sit, weigh on days-on-market stats, and require reductions.

• Mind the mortgage-rate shift. Higher rates can trim the buyer pool at the margins. The result may be fewer offers—not no offers—if you price with the data, not wishful thinking.

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Bottom Line

Greenville’s 2022 opener blends tight supply with rising rates—the essence of low inventory and higher mortgage rates in 2022. New listings fell sharply in January, pending sales cooled at year-end, yet closings stayed strong, and prices accelerated. Days on market are still sliding, sellers are capturing the list price (or better), and the affordability index has dropped to 85 from 100 a year ago. Unless supply meaningfully expands, expect a sellers’ market to persist—with a touch more friction as mortgage rates lift. Buyers who adapt to the product and move quickly will still find wins; sellers who price to the moment will still command the market.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville