Market stats show weird trends in Greenville

The greater Greenville housing scene is in one of those rare phases where nothing behaves quite the way it should (kind of like trying to fold a fitted sheet—it’s possible, just not intuitive). Inventory is rising, activity is scattered, and demand seems to be on its own unpredictable timeline. Yet beneath all the odd signals lies a market moving, shifting, and recalibrating in real time.

The numbers from the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors offer plenty to chew on—especially for anyone watching the gap widen between what should be happening and what’s actually taking place. And yes, the market stats show weird trends across almost every major category.

Let’s break down what those trends reveal and why different parts of the market are moving at wildly different speeds.

Greenville Real Estate and Why the Market Stats Show Weird Trends

When looking at the current landscape, the market stats show weird trends because the story they tell is rarely straightforward. Listings are rising, pendings are flat, closings are up, and buyers are showing up in droves… only to vanish the moment it’s time to write an offer (classic Houdini move).

What’s happening is a blend of delayed seller motivation, rate-shaped buyer hesitation, and a market that’s still working through the ripple effects of the past several years. Here’s how the data lands.

New Listings Surge as the “Dam Breaks”

New listings jumped more than 24% year over year, marking several straight months of positive growth. More importantly, Greenville has now logged back-to-back months with more than 1,800 new listings—unusually strong for this time of year.

This isn’t a mystery. Many homeowners simply had no choice but to move. After waiting two years for rates to drop (they didn’t), the pressure finally forced movement. Life events don’t wait for mortgage rates (if only they were that polite).

Pending Sales Tell a Different Story

Pending sales are still soft. February numbers always come in low and later get revised upward, but even with adjustments, January pendings were down 2.4% from the year prior.

Lower demand is tied directly to mortgage rates staying elevated. Rates haven’t scared people away completely—just enough to keep the contract numbers from matching the activity seen at showings and open houses.

Closed Sales Are Up—But Not for the Usual Reasons

Here’s where the market stats show weird trends more clearly: closed sales rose nearly 12% year over year, even while pendings dipped.

That disconnect usually signals behavior changes.

In earlier boom years, buyers held onto contracts no matter what—inspection issues, appraisal gaps, structural quirks—nothing scared them away. Now, the dynamic is reversed. Sellers are the ones doing whatever it takes to keep a deal alive (cue the frantic late-night repair negotiations).

Only in situations where sellers get immediate multiple offers do they hold firmer. Otherwise, sellers are adjusting, compromising, and lowering when needed to ensure the closing sticks.

Homes Are Taking Longer to Sell (and It Shows)

Days on market sat at 57—identical to last year. But on the ground, many homes are lingering far beyond averages. Some are seeing months pass with plenty of showings and zero offers.

Why? Buyers are picky. Very picky. (Imagine someone inspecting produce at the grocery store like they’re choosing a diamond.)

A home must be priced right, look right, and feel right—otherwise buyers simply move on.

The Median Sales Price Dips, But Not in a Meaningful Way

For the first time in nearly a year, the median price slipped just under $300,000. Still, year-over-year values rose by 3.1%.

This is a reminder: the median price measures what’s selling, not whether every home is appreciating. Some neighborhoods are flattening, others are inching upward, and a few are cooling noticeably—especially in the $300,000 to $400,000 range.

That segment is the pressure point of the market:

• First-time buyers can’t reach it

• Move-up buyers often skip past it

Result: inventory builds, but buyer pools shrink.

Sellers Are Becoming More Accurate With Pricing

One of the more surprising developments is the percent-of-list-price-received metric climbing to 98.4%.

Sellers aren’t getting lowballed—they’re getting smarter.

They’re:

• Pricing correctly upfront

• Cutting list prices sooner when needed

• Adjusting expectations to match reality

No one’s giving away houses, but there’s far less stubbornness than last year (progress!).

Housing Affordability “Improves,” but Not Really

The affordability index jumped to 100 for the first time in a year. On paper, this means the median household can afford the median-priced home.

In reality? Buyers still feel squeezed. (An index can say whatever it wants—feelings tend to argue back.)

The jump likely reflects revised income data, not a sudden drop in cost.

Inventory Is Rising Faster Than It Looks

Inventory appears to be up more than 35%, but the February numbers are always overstated. January’s revised numbers tell the truer story: supply is growing at a healthy pace, not a chaotic one.

Even with revisions, the region is getting closer to pre-pandemic inventory levels—a sign the market is finally loosening its grip.

Months of supply should revise downward too, but the trend is still upward. If supply reaches the fours, the market will start feeling like a buyer-friendly environment for the first time in years.

The Current Moment: Busy but Unpredictable

Activity across Greenville is high. Showings are up. Open houses are full. Second showings are common. But offers? Not as much.

Everyone wants to move—they’re just waiting for the home, not a home.

That means an imperfect listing, at an imperfect price, sits. And sits. And sits. (Like leftovers waiting in the fridge for someone brave enough to commit.)

Even with the chaos, the market remains manageable. Some price points are hot, some ice-cold, and some unpredictable.

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Bottom Line

The market stats show weird trends because Greenville is in a rare transition phase. Listings are growing, buyers are circling, offers are inconsistent, and many price points are behaving completely differently from one another. It’s a market where precision matters—pricing, timing, condition, and strategy all carry more weight than they have in years.

The good news? A clearer direction is coming.

The weirdness won’t last forever.

But for now, understanding these contradictions is the key to navigating Greenville’s shifting real estate landscape.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville