Market Update: Is It Time to Panic?

Greenville’s housing market has been showing signs of change—and for many, that sparks one big question: is it time to panic? (Cue dramatic music and someone clutching their Zestimate.) Between headlines hinting at slowdowns and whispers of potential corrections, it’s easy to assume the worst. But when you dig into the data, the picture looks far more balanced—and even healthier—than you might think. (Think green smoothie after too many lattes.)

Market Update: What the Data Really Says

Market update: According to the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors (GGAR), the market has indeed cooled compared to the frenzy of spring 2021—but context matters. (Translation: it’s not a crash, it’s a coffee break.) The slowing isn’t a collapse; it’s a recalibration.

In April 2021, the Upstate hit what could only be described as “peak madness.” New listings were up nearly 19% year-over-year, pending sales soared nearly 30%, and homes under $350,000 routinely drew double-digit offers. Fast-forward to July, and those same metrics shifted: listings were still up about 7%, but pending sales dropped 15% year-over-year—a swing that caught people’s attention.

Still, this doesn’t signal a crash. What it reflects is a market catching its breath after a record-breaking run. The pace was unsustainable—and frankly, impossible to maintain long-term.

Seasonal Slowdowns vs. Real Corrections

Every fall, Greenville’s housing activity tapers off as buyers shift focus to back-to-school routines and the holidays. This slowdown is seasonal, not systemic. It happens every year.

Historically, September through December mark the quietest stretch for real estate transactions. As retail ramps up for Black Friday and Christmas, housing demand naturally declines. This rhythm has been consistent for decades—and yet, every year, someone mistakes it for a housing crash.

Add to that the pandemic’s long tail of market distortion, and it’s no wonder buyers and sellers alike feel uncertain. The key is separating normal cyclical shifts from structural warning signs—and right now, all signs point to the former.

Inventory Levels Tell the Real Story

If you really want to know the market’s direction, don’t just watch pending sales—watch inventory levels.

A balanced market typically carries about six months of inventory, meaning homes take that long to sell if no new listings appear. Greenville has hovered around three to four months for years, marking a steady seller’s market.

Then, in May 2021, inventory dropped to just 1.1 months—the lowest ever recorded in Upstate history. Since then, it has ticked up slightly to 1.6 months, possibly 2.2 depending on revisions. That’s still dramatically below normal levels. Even with the “slowdown,” there’s nowhere near enough housing supply to call this a buyer’s market.

In short, the fire is cooling, not going out.

Median Prices and Days on Market Stay Strong

If the market were truly slipping, prices and pace would follow. Instead, median sales prices remain up about 12% year-over-year—roughly a 1% rise per month—and homes are selling in record time, averaging just 21 days on the market through mid-summer.

Those are not numbers of a collapsing market. They’re hallmarks of a still-competitive, still-tight environment—just without the frenzied bidding wars of early spring.

Price Points Tell the Tale

While overall activity has softened, the picture looks different depending on price range.

• Under $300,000: Still a frenzy. This segment remains fiercely competitive, with multiple offers common. Buyers in this range are typically first-timers with limited budgets, and because inventory here is so low, every new listing draws heavy attention.

• Above $300,000: More selective. These buyers have flexibility and patience—and they’re using both. Instead of panic buying, they’re waiting for the right fit, and they’re not afraid to walk away. (Finally—buyers are swiping left on overpriced listings.)

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This shift isn’t negative. It’s a sign of normalization, showing that the market is regaining balance between emotion and logic. (Less “love at first sight,” more “let’s check the inspection report.”)

Should Sellers Worry?

For sellers, a slowdown might sound like bad news—but it isn’t. (Think of it as your house getting off caffeine, not collapsing from exhaustion.)

Fewer listings could actually work in your favor. When media narratives focus on cooling markets, some homeowners hesitate to list, further shrinking the supply. That can strengthen your negotiating power if you do decide to sell. (Fewer players, same trophy.)

Just temper expectations: homes above $300,000 might take longer to sell, and bidding wars may be less common. But you’re still operating in a seller’s market—just a more rational one.

Should Buyers Panic?

Absolutely not. For buyers, this may be the most opportune moment in months. With fewer competing offers and sellers becoming more flexible, the fall and winter seasons can offer rare breathing room.

Yes, there are fewer listings—but the playing field is fairer. For many, that tradeoff is worth it.

Greenville’s Secret Strength: Stability

While other U.S. markets have swung wildly in and out of boom-and-bust cycles, Greenville has remained remarkably steady. Its growth tends to be gradual, predictable, and sustainable.

Even at the height of national housing frenzy, the Upstate didn’t experience the same extremes as markets like Austin or Denver. That’s partly due to local fundamentals—diverse job growth, manageable home prices, and consistent demand—all of which buffer against volatility.

So, while headlines might scream “Slowdown,” what Greenville is really seeing is a normalization of a very strong market. In other words: it’s not time to panic—it’s time to exhale.

Watch Or Listen To The Selling Greenville Podcast

Subscribe to the Selling Greenville podcast for real-time insights, bold perspectives, and unfiltered takes on the Upstate housing scene. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply watching the market unfold—this is where Greenville goes to stay informed.

Bottom Line

Greenville’s real estate market isn’t crashing—it’s correcting to healthy levels after a historic high. Inventory remains tight, prices are holding strong, and homes are still selling quickly.

The frenzy may be fading, but confidence shouldn’t. For both buyers and sellers, this season isn’t one to fear—it’s one to navigate wisely.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville