Real Estate Inventory in January Soared, but Prices Remain High

January brought one of the most unusual openings to the housing year that Greenville has seen in a long time. Inventory surged at a pace that felt more like spring, buyer behavior shifted in unexpected ways, and pricing continued to move upward despite mounting supply pressures. It created a landscape filled with contradictions, opportunities, and a few early warnings for anyone planning to buy or sell in 2024 (the kind of landscape where you’re not sure whether to grab binoculars or a seatbelt). This blog unpacks those patterns, revealing why real estate inventory rose so dramatically, how buyers responded, and why prices remained surprisingly resilient even as more homes hit the market (because apparently prices didn’t get the memo that inventory shot up).

Understanding the Surge in Real Estate Inventory

The focus keyword Real Estate Inventory sets the stage for the biggest story of the month. January posted the highest number of new listings ever recorded for a January in the Greenville area. That single data point reshaped nearly every other metric in this report, from pending sales to buyer traffic to the pace at which listings went under contract.

Instead of the usual quiet winter lull, January looked and behaved like a peak-season month, with inventory stacking up faster than buyers could absorb it. That imbalance created conditions that gave buyers more breathing room while adding pressure to sellers who hit the market early.

What follows is a closer look at how this spike unfolded and what it means for the months ahead.

New Listings Broke Every January Record

The most striking part of the January data is the unprecedented wave of new listings. A staggering 1,845 homes came on the market, representing the highest January print ever documented. Historically, January sits at the bottom of the yearly inventory cycle, but this year mirrored what peak-season months used to look like.

This 30 percent year-over-year jump created a powerful ripple effect. With so many new listings competing at once, some sellers found themselves overshadowed by fresher, more appealing inventory. Homes listed in December or early January struggled to draw traffic simply because buyers had so many new options to explore. The volume also confirmed what many agents privately suspected: more homeowners than usual were gearing up to sell this winter.

Whether February repeats this pattern is the next big question, but January alone made it clear that the supply side of the market woke up early.

Pending Sales Lagged, Opening the Door to Excess Inventory

While new listings soared, pending sales told a different story. December posted a solid year-over-year increase, but January is shaping up as a down month once revisions settle. Early counts show 799 pending sales, a number expected to be revised into the low 1100s, but still short of January 2023’s 1,225 pending.

When new listings spike and pending sales soften, the result is simple: excess inventory. More homes stay on the market longer, competition increases among sellers, and buyers gain leverage they haven't had in years. It is the kind of shift that doesn't break the market, but it does change the tone. Sellers who expected instant traffic found themselves staring at slower activity than they anticipated.

Closed Sales Show Strength, but Momentum Is Mixed

January closed sales increased 13.3 percent year-over-year, an encouraging sign that buyers are still active, even if recent pending numbers appear softer. Many of these closings, however, came from contracts written in November and December, before the inventory surge hit full swing.

This is why February and March will reveal much more about the durability of buyer demand. For now, closed sales are up, but the underlying pipeline points to more moderate activity ahead.

Days on Market Hold Steady, but the Floor Is Rising

Homes averaged 51 days on market until contract in both December and January, a flat month-to-month reading. But compared to last year, this is a 4 percent increase. That may sound small, but it represents the lowest year-over-year increase seen in more than twelve months.

The broader trend remains clear: homes are taking longer to sell than they did during the peak frenzy, and that slowdown is unlikely to reverse in the short term. With so many new listings hitting all at once, February could easily see this number rise again. Even a modest shift gives buyers more time and puts pressure on properties that miss the mark on condition or pricing.

Prices Remain High Despite Rising Inventory

Perhaps the most counterintuitive part of the January report is that prices did not fall. In fact, the median sales price climbed 4.2 percent year-over-year, landing at $311,500. That increase stands out because 2023 delivered unusually modest appreciation, with many months posting sub-3 percent gains and even one month dipping below prior-year pricing.

Something changed beginning in October. Mortgage rates peaked, then drifted downward, opening enough affordability to push median prices upward again. October, November, and December each posted stronger year-over-year gains, and January continued that trajectory. If the year ends with around 4 percent appreciation, that would place Greenville in a healthy, balanced range.

The average sales price rose as well, hitting $378,000, though averages will always be skewed by higher-end properties. Still, both measures suggest firm pricing despite the increase in real estate inventory.

Sellers Continue to Receive Strong Sale-to-List Ratios

Homes sold for an average of 98.1 percent of their list price in January. That number aligns almost perfectly with pre-pandemic norms and confirms that the Greenville market is still fundamentally strong.

Buyers are negotiating, but not dramatically. Sellers remain in a solid position as long as their homes are well-priced and well-prepared. The homes that struggle tend to be those needing updates or those priced too aggressively for current conditions.

Affordability Remains Challenging

The housing affordability index held at 90, a level indicating that the median household cannot afford the median-priced home. This barrier comes from two forces moving simultaneously: rising sales prices and rising mortgage rates.

Recent economic data turned unexpectedly hot, pushing treasury yields higher and carrying mortgage rates back into the low 7s according to national averages. Borrowers with strong financial profiles still find mid-6 percent rates locally, but the overall upward pressure still limits affordability. Until rates fall substantially, affordability improvements will remain out of reach.

Real Estate Inventory Climbed Sharply Across the Market

The official inventory count showed 3,834 homes for sale in January, a figure likely to be revised down to around 3,500. Even after revision, this remains a meaningful jump from last year’s 3,082 homes. It also marks the highest January inventory level since before the pandemic.

More inventory means more choices for buyers, more competition for sellers, and more balance for the market. But it is still far from a “high inventory” environment. Pre-2020 levels typically hovered between 3.5 and 4.5 months of supply, while today’s market sits closer to three.

In other words, this is still a seller-leaning market, just not the breakneck pace sellers became accustomed to.

Month Supply of Inventory Signals Slow Normalization

January’s preliminary reading showed 3.1 months of inventory. Revised numbers will likely place it near 2.9, still significantly higher than last year’s 2.4 months. Rising month-supply readings point to a gradual return toward normal market balance.

Even so, three months of inventory is historically lean. Balanced markets typically require five to six months of supply. Greenville isn't there yet, but each month edges closer to equilibrium.

Mortgage Rate Volatility Is Steering Buyer Behavior

Mortgage rate swings have been the dominant force in buyer psychology. Recent hot economic data sent treasury yields sharply higher, lifting rates off the lows reached at the start of the year. Buyers have become more cautious as a result. When rates soften, showings increase. When rates rise suddenly, momentum cools.

This volatility creates an uneven market where some homes receive steady traffic while others sit quietly. It is not necessarily a pricing issue, but a timing issue. As the spring season approaches, demand will likely pick up regardless of rates, but the volatility has already shaped early-year behavior.

A Busy Spring Season Still Looks Likely

Despite the mixed data, there is every indication that buyer activity will surge as the market moves into March and April. Historically, this is when Greenville real estate accelerates, and the patterns remain consistent year after year.

Sellers who listed early and saw light activity may simply need to stay patient. As more buyers flood the market, homes that were overlooked in January may find a second wind.

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Bottom Line

Real estate inventory surged in January in a way that caught nearly everyone by surprise. New listings skyrocketed, pending sales softened, and days on market indicated a cooling pace. Yet prices stayed strong, sale-to-list ratios remained historically normal, and sellers still held meaningful leverage.

Greenville is not heading for a downturn. Instead, the market is shifting into a more balanced, steady rhythm. More inventory means more choice. Higher prices mean continued strength. Rate volatility may slow momentum, but the spring season is approaching, and demand is expected to build.

For buyers, the new conditions offer a fresh opportunity (the kind that feels a bit like finding the last parking spot at Trader Joe’s). For sellers, preparation and patience matter more than ever (think of it as a slow cooker moment, not an air fryer one). Greenville’s market is adjusting, not retreating, and January’s surge in real estate inventory marks the beginning of an active year ahead.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville