Real Estate Inventory Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels

When the Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS® (GGAR) released October market stats in mid-November, one headline stood out above the rest: inventory has climbed back to something that looks and feels like the pre-pandemic market. That shift ripples through everything—how long homes sit, how buyers shop, and how sellers price and negotiate. Below is a clear, number-grounded read on where the Upstate stands now and what it means for anyone planning a move.

Pre-Pandemic Real Estate Inventory Rebound

Pre-Pandemic Level: The latest GGAR data shows active listings at month-end have surged compared to a year ago—up 94.3% year over year. By the end of October, the market was carrying roughly 4,054 homes—about where Greenville typically hovered before 2020’s buying frenzy distorted supply. That’s the first major sign that the balance of power is shifting back toward normalcy.

“Normal” doesn’t mean sleepy. Demand in Greenville remains historically strong for October, and the Upstate continues to outperform many metros because it’s a trendy, in-demand market. But with more homes on the shelf, the pace, pricing, and psychology have changed—fast.

The October snapshot, explained simply

New listings:

• Down 1.7% year over year. Fewer owners are coming to market. Many are locked into mortgage rates in the 2–3% range and don’t have a compelling reason to trade up into 6.5–7%. Expect new listings to trend lower until rates meaningfully retreat into the 4s or 5s.

Pending sales (offers accepted):

• September pending sales were down ~20% YoY (Greenville’s slowest since Dec 2021). This confirms what most felt by late summer: buyers hit the brakes as rates rose and affordability tightened.

Closed sales:

• October closings fell 13.9% YoY to 1,225 (from 1,423 in Oct 2021). Still historically solid for an October in Greenville—but clearly off last year’s torrid pace.

Days on market to offer:

• Jumped to 32 days in October (from 21 a year ago).

• The climb has been steady: 18 (Jun) → 19 (Jul) → 21 (Aug) → 27 (Sep) → 32 (Oct) . As more homes sit longer (some even 4–6 months), expect this average to keep rising into the 40s, then 50s, which would put Greenville firmly back in pre-pandemic time-to-contract territory.

Median sales price:

• $302,000 in October, up ~9.8% YoY (from $275,000).

• Down from $315,000 in September (a typical seasonal step-down). Seasonality matters. The question to watch over the next few months: does the median dip below $285,000? If so, that would hint at non-seasonal softening rather than just the normal winter fade.

Percent of list price received:

• 98.7% in October (down from 98.8% in September and well below last year’s “over-ask” norm). Pre-pandemic, Greenville hovered around 98%. It’s healthy for this metric to glide—not plunge—back toward that band. Sellers should budget for negotiation again.

Housing affordability index:

• Ticked up to 78 in October (from 75 in September), the best since April. Despite higher rates, small shifts in pricing and income nudged affordability in the right direction. It’s still low—below 100 means the median household can’t afford the median-priced home—but the direction is notable.

Months’ supply (absorption):

• Bottomed at 1.0 months in March, then rose steadily: 1.1 (Apr) → 1.3 (May) → 1.8 (Jun) → 2.1 (Jul) → 2.3 (Aug) → 2.5 (Sep). Once the rolling math drops 2021’s super-strong pending numbers and looks only at 2022, expect a jump into the 3s, possibly the 4s—classic pre-2020 “tight but functional” territory.

What “more inventory” actually feels like on the ground

• Buyers can finally shop. In early 2022, Greenville hovered near 1,400 active listings. By October, that number was around 4,000+—nearly triple. Practically speaking, that means you can tour new listings over a weekend, return for a second look, and write an offer without bidding into the stratosphere on day one.

• Sellers must earn attention. Pricing is a strategy, not a guess. Preparation matters: photography, condition, and timing. Expect offers near list, not over—98–99% is normalizing—and plan for concessions or repairs during due diligence.

• Investors are waking up. As retail buyers adopt a wait-and-see posture, investors are re-emerging to hunt opportunities that haven’t existed in years. The math improves when negotiability returns and days on market rise.

• New listings may thin out. At the time of recording, the MLS snapshot showed roughly 3,283 active residential listings (single-family, condos, manufactured, etc.), suggesting November’s new-listing intake could slow. Owners adapt quickly: when selling looks tougher, many choose to sit tight.

For sellers: how to win in a post-frenzy market

1. Price to the market that exists, not the one you heard about. October’s sale-to-list ratio at 98.7% tells you buyers aren’t routinely bidding over ask. Pricing at (or slightly under) fair value can still produce strong interest in the first 2–3 weeks.

2. Expect—and plan for—time. A fast offer is great. But with average days to offer at 32 and climbing, align expectations: thoughtful prep, consistent marketing, and patience will beat panic price cuts.

3. Negotiate with data. Buyers now ask for repairs or credits during due diligence. Be ready with your own comps, contractor opinions, and a clear sense of what you’ll fix versus credit.

4. Remember: it’s still not a buyer’s market. Pre-pandemic was a seller’s market—and so is this—just less chaotic. With demand in Greenville still historically solid, well-presented homes will move.

For buyers: leverage without hubris

1. Shop deliberately; act decisively. More choice doesn’t remove scarcity at the best price-to-condition points. Tour, compare, and then write clean offers when a home checks the boxes.

2. Use days on market as a conversation starter. The longer a home sits, the more negotiable it becomes—on price, concessions, or both.

3. Watch the median. If the median dips below $285K in the next few months, that’s a signal of broader softening. But timing the bottom is a gamble—landing the right house at a payment you can handle beats waiting indefinitely.

4. Be rate-savvy. If rates ease into the 4s/5s, expect fresh competition from owners with ultra-low mortgages who finally decide to move. If they don’t, inventory likely stays higher—but so do payments. Plan both scenarios.

Why due diligence and contracts matter more than ever

South Carolina’s update to the standard residential contract consolidated inspection-period choices into a single due diligence path. Practically, that has meant cleaner negotiations, fewer surprises, and smoother closings. Two pro tips embedded in today’s reality:

• Keep the addresses straight. The contract needs a seller's address up front so a termination fee (if it comes to that) can be properly delivered.

• Know your money buckets. Earnest money and termination fees are different; one is paid up front, the other only if you terminate within due diligence.

The result so far? Fewer fireworks, more clarity.

What could push the market either way?

Rates, inflation, and the macro backdrop matter. Geopolitics, supply-chain wobbles, and Fed policy all filter into mortgage pricing and consumer confidence. Locally, demand remains resilient. If active inventory climbs above 5,000–6,000 and pending sales stay weak, Greenville could feel like a buyer’s market even if the textbook thresholds say otherwise. For now, it’s a cooler seller’s market with markedly better conditions for buyers.

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Bottom Line

Real Estate Inventory Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels isn’t just a headline—it’s a wholesale reset of tempo and tactics. Inventory has roughly doubled year over year, days on market are climbing, sale-to-list ratios are drifting back toward normal, and affordability nudged up. For sellers, success now hinges on preparation, pricing precision, and patient execution. For buyers, the pressure cooker has opened: more choices, more time, and real room to negotiate—without assuming the market owes you a steal.

In short: the Upstate has traded adrenaline for strategy. That’s healthy. And it’s an opportunity—for those ready to move with the market as it is, not as it was.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville