Reviewing 2022 and Previewing 2023

The latest Selling Greenville episode takes an honest, on-the-ground look at how 2022 actually unfolded in the Upstate—and what might be waiting just past the turn of the calendar. Instead of airy national takes, the host sticks to what he sees daily in the Greenville area: shifting mortgage rates, changing buyer behavior, sellers pressing pause, investors quietly stepping back in, and why seasonality still matters more than most headlines admit.

Greenville Housing Market Review of 2022 and 2023 preview

At the center of the episode is a Greenville housing market review of 2022 and 2023 preview—a plain-spoken tour through a year that felt like two different markets sewn together, plus a clear explanation of how those dynamics may set up the first half of the new year.

2022 felt like two different years

The pivot point was unmistakable: mortgage rates. Early 2022 ran hot. Then rates vaulted from the 3s into the 6s and 7s, and the brakes came on. Activity cooled fastest in the fourth quarter. For the host’s own book of business—and for many peers—investors resurfaced, while a lot of would-be retail buyers shifted to a wait-and-see mode.

That wait-and-see posture wasn’t just a feeling. Local stats he follows showed both sides of the market pulling back in November:

• New listings are down 6.6% year over year.

• Closings are down 18.5% year over year.

When supply and demand fall together, the market doesn’t necessarily get “easy” for anyone—it just gets quieter. Sellers face longer timelines; buyers face fewer quality options.

How buyers changed—and why fixer-uppers stalled

One of the starkest shifts: cosmetically tired or true fixer-upper listings no longer fly unless they’re priced with deep reality. The market’s message was clear—if it isn’t turnkey, it has to be discounted. That’s a big change from the frenzy, when scarce inventory pushed many shoppers to accept projects at prices only a hair below renovated comps.

What the numbers said about prices

The show has been tracking the median sales price closely, with a personal “watch line” at $285,000—a level that, if broken to the downside during the usual winter softness, would suggest something more than seasonality. Instead, November’s median rose month-over-month to $303,240, up 6.4% year-over-year. That increase is much milder than the double-digit spikes of the past two years and looks more like a pre-pandemic pace—but it isn’t a decline.

Why Greenville keeps proving resilient

In the episode’s view, Greenville and South Carolina have been comparatively steady. A chart the host referenced showed South Carolina with the second-smallest drop in closed sales among a large set of states/metros—still a sizable dip, but more resilient than many peers. The logic behind that steadiness echoes what locals live: a livable climate, a small-city scale with real amenities, and a property-rights-friendly, lower-tax policy—all reasons people move here and then stay.

What to watch in early 2023

The conversation shifts from review to forecast—without pretending anyone has a crystal ball. Instead, it lays out the dominoes that could fall.

Rates, recession chatter, and lender caution

Three threads run through the outlook:

1. Rate path: The show leans toward mortgage rates being “a bit artificially inflated” relative to the Fed backdrop. In a more normal environment, the host argues, they’d likely sit in the 5s, not the high 6s.

2. Recession risk: There’s a wide spread of opinions—from “severe recession” to “no classic recession”—but most expect some slowdown. Any unemployment rise, plus the Fed’s battle with inflation, becomes the backdrop for housing.

3. Lender posture: Lenders have been conservative, and a clearer 2023 economic picture could loosen that stance at the margins.

A slow winter, then a potentially jumpy spring/summer

He expects winter to be slow—that’s seasonal even in normal years. The twist for 2023 is that seasonality overlaps with the rate shock, making it tough to parse what’s cyclical versus structural.

But there’s a clear, testable idea here: if mortgage rates break into the 5s this spring or summer, buyers could knee-jerk back into the market—especially if that drop coincides with the usual April–June busy season. He points to a recent mini-example: when rates retreated from the 7s back to the 6s, mortgage applications jumped nationwide. The same reflex could be bigger if rates dip further during the natural buying months.

Supply is still the hinge

Even with softer demand, supply is thin because many owners are locked into ~3% mortgages and aren’t eager to swap for a 6-something. That’s why even a slower winter doesn’t guarantee a bargain bin for buyers. The practical effect: fewer listings, and more of them in the turnkey bucket that’s still winning the day.

Practical implications for each side

For buyers:

• Set alerts now. If rates move into the 5s, competition can spike quickly.

• Be honest about the condition. If you don’t want a project, don’t chase one unless it’s priced well under nearby renovated sales.

• Watch builder incentives. Some builders are offering teaser rates—e.g., 3.99% for the first year that escalate later—with the idea that buyers can refinance if broader rates come down. (The episode notes that most builders allow buyers to have an agent at no extra cost—and recommends having one because builders don’t always volunteer the full story.)

For sellers:

• Turnkey wins. If you’re not going to update, price reality in on day one.

• Expect longer timelines. This isn’t early-2022 speed; plan for more days on market and choose an agent who will actually still be in the business if your sale takes time.

For investors:

• Windows are opening. With fewer bidders, selective deals are returning, especially where a project can be bought now, improved sensibly, and listed into the spring/summer lift. The host, who invests and flips in small batches, says he’s seeing opportunities he hasn’t seen in years.

Seasonality still rules the calendar

The episode underscores a simple truth: January is the trough most years. Activity ticks up in February, grows in March, and then surges in April–June. No one expects 2023 to resemble the blow-out volumes of 2020–2022, but the shape of the year should rhyme with normal seasonality—just at a cooler tempo. If rates fall alongside that seasonal swell, the uptick could amplify.

A measured outlook, not a doom-scroll

The tone isn’t rosy or dire; it’s practical. Prices aren’t collapsing in the data being watched locally. Inventory hasn’t magically healed. And yet, buyers can find wins (especially on real fixer-uppers priced like it), while sellers can still succeed by aligning condition and price. The biggest swing factor—rates—isn’t under anyone’s control, but the response to them is predictable: when borrowing gets cheaper, activity jumps.

That’s the heart of this Greenville housing market review 2022 and 2023 preview: expect a quiet winter, stay ready for a busier spring, and make decisions with the market that exists—not the one from last year’s headlines.

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Bottom Line

2022 split in two: a hot first half and a cooled second half as rates surged. Heading into 2023, the most likely path is slow then faster—a subdued winter that could give way to a spring/summer pop if mortgage rates ease into the 5s. Supply remains constrained, buyers remain condition-sensitive, and sellers who price with the market—not against it—will fare best. Investors are already quietly back at the table, especially where pricing finally reflects the true cost of work.

In short: stay patient, stay prepared, and make moves when the data—not the noise—says it’s time.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville