Revisiting My Bold 2026 Real Estate Predictions
- 2 days ago
- 7 min read
Six months is a long time in real estate.
Rates move. Inventory changes. Buyer behavior shifts. Sellers adjust. New construction starts reshaping the numbers. And sometimes a prediction that looked solid in January starts wobbling by summer.
That is what makes a midyear review useful. It is not just about seeing which calls were right or wrong. It is about measuring how much the market has changed, which trends are holding, and where the second half of the year may still surprise everyone.
At the start of 2026, ten predictions were made about mortgage rates, home prices, inventory, Airbnb regulations, foreclosures, affordability, new construction, showings, and bedroom-specific pricing. Some are aging very well. Others are still hanging in the balance. A few may need the real estate equivalent of a fourth-quarter comeback.
Revisiting My Bold 2026 Real Estate Predictions at the Midyear Mark
The purpose of revisiting My Bold 2026 Real Estate Predictions is not to claim victory halfway through the year. It is to compare expectations with what the market is actually doing.
There is also an important wildcard hanging over the second half of 2026. The original predictions assumed there would be no major cataclysmic event, such as a pandemic or war. That assumption did not hold. The ongoing war has already affected inflation expectations, mortgage-rate forecasts, and the likelihood of Federal Reserve action.
With that context in mind, here is how the ten predictions are holding up.
Mortgage Rates Would Enter the Fives, But Not Go Below 5.65%
The first prediction was that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate would fall into the 5% range at some point during 2026, but would never drop below 5.65%
.
That prediction has already hit the first target.
Mortgage rates fell to 5.99% on February 23 and February 27. Since then, they have climbed and spent much of the year hovering between roughly 6.4% and 6.7%.
The interesting part is how narrow the win was. The rate entered the fives, but only just. It did not come close to the low fives that some analysts expected, and it also proved the people who said rates would never fall below 6% wrong.
At the midyear point, this prediction looks strong. Unless rates fall sharply during the second half of the year, the 5.99% low may hold.
Median Sales Prices Would Rise Between 2% and 5%
The second prediction is on shakier ground.
The expectation was that Greenville’s median sales price would rise between 2% and 5% for the full year. So far, the monthly numbers have been inconsistent.
January showed a 2.7% increase. February was down 0.6%. March increased 2.9%. April was flat. May was up only a little more than 1%, and June was barely above the previous year.
Only two of the first six months landed inside the predicted range.
There is still time for stronger appreciation during the second half of the year, but the current trend points closer to 0% to 2% growth than 2% to 5%. This is one of my Bold 2026 Real Estate Predictions that needs a noticeable shift before December.
Inventory Would Rise, But Months Supply Would Stay Below 4.7
This prediction had two parts.
First, total inventory would continue rising, but months supply would not exceed 4.7 months. Second, total inventory would eventually post a year-over-year decline.
The first half looks good. Inventory has continued climbing, while months supply has remained well below 4.7 months.
The second half is still developing. Inventory began declining in June, which is normal seasonal behavior. But last year, inventory continued rising through October, so the earlier decline this year is worth watching.
If inventory keeps falling and moves back below 6,000 homes, the market could post a year-over-year inventory decrease during August, September, or October. That would complete both halves of the prediction.
Greenville County Would Begin Discussing Airbnb Restrictions or Taxes
This prediction is already close to being confirmed.
The expectation was that Greenville County would begin discussing significant county-level Airbnb restrictions, taxation, or both.
County officials are now studying short-term rentals and considering what should happen with them across the county. Even without a final rule or tax in place, the discussion itself has clearly begun.
There is very little chance that the county studies short-term rentals and decides to do absolutely nothing. A clearer statement or proposal may still be needed before the prediction can be marked fully complete, but the direction is already obvious.
The Five-Year ARM Spread Would Exceed One Percentage Point
This prediction is currently in trouble.
The expectation was that the spread between a five-year adjustable-rate mortgage and a 30-year fixed mortgage would exceed one full percentage point.
At the midyear mark, the five-year ARM was around 6.27%, while the 30-year fixed rate was around 6.54%. That is nowhere near a one-point spread.
The original logic was that the Federal Reserve would cut short-term rates while longer-term bond yields stayed higher. That would have pushed adjustable rates down faster than fixed mortgage rates.
The war changed that outlook. Additional inflation concerns have raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve could increase rates instead of cutting them. The prediction came close earlier in the year, but it now looks unlikely.
There Would Be No Major Rise in Foreclosures or Short Sales
This prediction looks very strong.
In 2025, Greenville recorded 65 foreclosure sales and 23 short sales, for a total of 88. Those distressed transactions represented about 0.49% of all closings.
Through the first half of 2026, there were 32 foreclosure sales and 10 short sales, for a total of 42. That places the market on pace for roughly 84 distressed sales for the full year.
Distressed transactions currently represent about 0.45% of total closings, which is slightly lower than last year.
There has been no major increase. In fact, the share of foreclosures and short sales has declined slightly. For investors waiting for a flood of distressed properties, the data still offers no evidence that one is coming.
Housing Affordability Would Return to 100
This prediction came true, although the victory feels less dramatic than expected.
A Housing Affordability Index score of 100 means the median household earns enough to afford the median-priced home. The prediction was that Greenville would reach that level at some point in 2026.
It did.
The complication is that previous data was later revised, showing that affordability had already crossed 100 during several months near the end of 2025. That makes the original call look less bold than it did when it was made.
Still, the prediction was technically correct. Sometimes a win is a win, even when the data later moves the goalposts.
New Construction Would Remain Cheaper Than Existing Homes
This is one of the strongest calls in the entire review.
The prediction was that the median price of new construction would remain below the median price of existing homes for most of 2026.
That has happened during every month so far.
In June, the median price for existing homes was around $347,500, while new construction was roughly $315,000. That is a spread of about $32,000.
New construction has remained in the low-to-mid $300,000 range, while resale homes have stayed higher. Only one more month is needed for new construction to be cheaper during a majority of the year, and the current gap makes that outcome look highly likely.
This does not mean every new home is cheaper than every resale home. It means buyers are currently more likely to find lower-priced options among new construction when comparing median prices.
Homes Would Need at Least Eight Showings to Go Under Contract
This prediction needs a little clarification, but it is still on track.
The expectation was that homes would require an average of at least eight showings before going under contract. The data appears to have been based on the monthly median rather than the overall average.
The monthly median was nine showings in January, eight in February, seven in March, seven in May, and eight in June.
That puts the year close to the predicted level.
The number matters because more showings can signal stronger demand and a hotter market. During the peak years from 2021 through 2023, the median frequently reached double digits and climbed as high as 13.
The current numbers show a market with activity, but not the frenzy of a few years ago. Buyers are still looking. They are simply moving with more patience.
Two-Bedroom Homes Would Lose Value While Four-Bedroom Homes Rose More Than 4%
The final prediction remains uncertain.
The first half said two-bedroom homes would lose value. That part is currently possible. Two-bedroom homes ended 2025 with a median price near $220,000 and were around $207,500 at the midyear point.
The second half predicted that four-bedroom homes would rise by more than 4%.
Four-bedroom homes reached roughly $412,000, which is close to an all-time high. They have also posted month-over-month gains since March.
However, they are not yet trending toward a 4% year-over-year increase. The direction is positive, but not strong enough to confidently call the prediction correct.
This one is still about 50-50. A major shift in rates, inflation, or buyer activity could push the numbers either way during the second half of the year.
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Bottom Line
At the midyear mark, My Bold 2026 Real Estate Predictions are holding up reasonably well.
The mortgage-rate prediction looks strong. Inventory has behaved largely as expected. Foreclosures remain extremely low. Housing affordability crossed the predicted threshold. New construction continues to carry a lower median price than existing homes. And Greenville County has started examining short-term rental rules.
The weaker calls involve price appreciation, the gap between adjustable and fixed mortgage rates, and whether four-bedroom homes can finish the year with more than 4% growth.
The bigger lesson is not that every prediction must be perfect. It is that six months can completely reshape the market. Rates, inflation, global events, inventory, and buyer behavior all interact in ways that make certainty almost impossible.
The first half of 2026 has been steadier than dramatic, but the second half still has plenty of room to change the final score.
Ien Araneta
Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville
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