Rumblings of a Slowdown + Best Month to Buy

The Upstate housing drumbeat has been loud for months—quick sales, over-ask offers, and buyers sprinting from showing to showing. Lately, though, a new rhythm is creeping in. Agents across social feeds are reporting something they can feel before they can prove: a cooling at the edges. Is it seasonal? Is it macro? Or is it simply the market catching its breath after a breakneck June?

This episode unpacks exactly that: the rumblings of a slowdown—and, just as importantly, the best month to buy if you’re a weary shopper looking for a strategic opening.

Rumblings of a Slowdown + Best Month to Buy

Rumblings of a Slowdown: Let’s put the long-tail keyword front and center: best month to buy. Everything discussed points toward two truths happening at once: there are genuine signals of a slowdown, and, historically, there is a particular month that often tips the balance in buyers’ favor.

First, the slowdown. It’s hard to quantify in the moment, because real estate never moves in a straight line and the calendar itself is a major market variable. Typically, the Upstate surges into June, tapers through July, enjoys a late-summer push in August, and then eases into the holidays. That “taper” is usually visible on both sides of the ledger—new listings and buyers—because so many participants are simultaneously buying and selling.

This year adds layers: a post-lockdown “business as usual” summer in Greenville, pent-up travel, stimulus dollars, and headlines about variants—each tugging on consumer behavior in different ways. The net? Mortgage applications are down, a straightforward sign of fewer active buyers at the moment. Pair that with buyer fatigue from June’s frenzy, and it’s not hard to see why some shoppers decided to step back, catch their breath, and wait for saner conditions

What the June Data Actually Said (And Why It Matters)

Even while the mood shifted, the June numbers were wild:

• Percent of List Price Received: 101.3% (a record). On average, homes sold over list by 1.3%.

• Median Sales Price: $267,000, up 13.8% year over year in June (after a 16% YoY jump in May).

• Average Days on Market (to offer accepted): 24 days in June—the lowest ever—down from 55 days in June of the prior year.

• Pending Sales: 767 in June—less than half of June 2020’s 1,612, and the lowest since November 2019.

• New Listings: 1,956 in June—near multi-year highs (the strongest since around spring 2019).

• Closed Sales: Highest ever in June, reflecting contracts written in April and May.

Read together, this looks like a market that was still scorching when contracts written earlier closed in June, while fresh June contracts dropped sharply—even as new listings stayed high. That divergence is the heartbeat of today’s discussion: more sellers showed up, fewer buyers wrote offers, and a lot of people went on vacation or tapped out from the June sprint.

Seasonality vs. Shift: What’s Signal and What’s Noise?

If it’s only seasonality, the slowdown should look like the usual mid-to-late summer cooling: fewer showings, some price trims on the margins, and a pickup for a subset of buyers who keep their shoes on while others hit the beach. If it’s something larger, we’ll see it in the next rounds of stats—pending contracts and, later, closed sales rolling over more decisively.

But several cues suggest opportunity without panic:

• Buyer fatigue is real. After June’s chaos, many paused. Some are already drifting back in, especially as they notice more price reductions than earlier in the year.

• Sellers are recalibrating. The “25 showings, 10 offers, 5% over ask” expectation doesn’t fit every property, every neighborhood, or every price point anymore.

• Under the median stays hot. Sub-$300k—roughly beneath that $267k median—remains “gold” when paired with strong schools and locations. Those homes still move fast and clean.

How Buyers Can Use the Opening

For buyers who stepped away, this is the moment to re-enter with a plan. The best month to buy isn’t about luck—it’s about tilting the math in your favor:

• Watch the pendings. June’s pending count fell to 767 despite 1,956 new listings. That imbalance can surface motivated sellers and better negotiations.

• Track days on market. While the average was a record-low 24 days in June, anything lingering beyond the neighborhood norm is a candidate for a conversation—especially if a price cut just hit.

• Work the pre-holiday window. October (more on this below) routinely sees supply outpace demand, creating tactical leverage without requiring a “bottom of the market” fantasy.

How Sellers Should Read the Room

For sellers, the headlines aren’t bad—they’re nuanced:

• Pricing precision matters again. When new listings surge and pendings dip, the market punishes wishful thinking. Nail the comps, and you’ll still capture strong demand—particularly below the median and in coveted school zones.

• Expect fewer meteors, more airplanes. The stratospheric bidding wars haven’t vanished, but they’re concentrated. Many solid listings will now sell well, not wildly.

• Work the calendar. If you’re aiming to sell before deep holiday mode, recognize the pre-holiday push (October) and the steeper taper that typically follows.

Zooming In on October: Why It’s Often the Best Month to Buy

Historically, when you compare new listings to pending sales month by month, October stands out. It’s the stretch when supply most notably exceeds demand—i.e., the widest gap in the buyer’s favor.

Why October?

• Pre-holiday push: Sellers who don’t want showings during Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s often list before the holidays.

• Buyer pool thins: Some shoppers pause for school routines, sports, or early holiday travel—fewer bidders per listing.

• Still a decent selection: October typically has a respectable flow of new inventory compared to the steep dips in November and December.

That combination—more options, fewer bidders—can give patient buyers an extra edge. If your goal is to time the best month to buy, October has the track record to back it up.

What June’s Extremes Tell Us About the Next Few 

Months

A market can flash extremes and still be shifting underneath:

• Record over-ask (101.3%) and record-low days on market (24) confirm how tight the spring truly was.

• The median price of $267k reinforces the squeeze on first-time buyers.

• Pendings collapsing to 767 while new listings surged to 1,956 hints that demand blinked—whether from vacations, fatigue, or both.

If July and August pendings stabilize, expect a normal autumn pattern: a modest August pop, then October’s supply-demand tilt favoring buyers, and a more pronounced holiday taper. If pendings stay soft while listings remain firm, buyers will find even more room to negotiate—without sellers falling off a cliff.

Practical Takeaways for Both Sides

• Buyers: Re-engage now with clear criteria. Target homes sitting longer than the neighborhood pace, pounce on fair reductions, and build your search to crest in October, the historical best month to buy.

• Sellers: Price to the market you’re in, not the market your neighbor had in April. Below-median, well-located homes remain “gold,” but stretching ask prices in slower segments invites avoidable days on market and late price cuts.

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Bottom Line

There are rumblings of a slowdown—at minimum, a seasonal breather amplified by June’s buyer fatigue and a summer full of travel. At the same time, the data highlighted a classic playbook move: October is historically the best month to buy, when listings outpace pendings and leverage tilts toward shoppers. For buyers, this is a permission slip to get back in with strategy. For sellers, it’s a reminder that the market still rewards great pricing and great products—just don’t expect every listing to behave like June at its peak.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville