Stats Show Home Prices in Greenville Remain Near Their Peak

Greenville’s housing scene just dropped a fresh batch of numbers, and the headline is hard to miss: stability. In an episode walking through Greater Greenville Association of Realtors (GGAR) market stats through September (published mid-October), host Stan McCune highlights patterns that feel familiar—seasonal slowdowns, pending-sales revisions—and a few that stand out, like price resilience at the top end and condos holding their own as affordability tightens (yes, stats can have plot twists).

Understanding Market Stats: Home Prices in Greenville

Home Prices in Greenville: It’s exactly what the monthly prints show. The median sales price has hovered in a tight band since May—roughly the low-$300Ks—with September up 1.6% year over year and sitting right around the yearly peak. Seasonally, prices often soften into Q4, but so far the line is holding close to the high watermark (think of it as Greenville’s price plateau with scenic views).

New listings pattern

New listings fell 11.7% year over year in September, landing at 1,697 (down from 1,921 a year ago). The cadence looks “normal” by local standards: a seasonal high in late spring/early summer (June at 1,933), a July dip (~1,700), a small August pop (~1,900), then easing into September (~1,700). Historically, August often shows that mini-bump as households rush to list before school starts, followed by tapering into fall. On the ground, October feels similar to September with a chance of a slight bump (seasonality marches to its own metronome).

Pending sales reality check

If you’re new to these reports, the most recent month’s “pending” is always undercounted and gets revised up later. September initially looks shockingly low (-42.5% YoY), but that won’t stand. August is the cautionary example: first posted at 851, later revised to 1,232 (from “ouch” to “okayish”). Even after revisions, August still finished -10.9% YoY—the biggest pending drop of the year to that point—reflecting mortgage rates pressing into the ~8% neighborhood for many borrowers (investors especially). Expect Q4 to lean slow as holidays near and rate pressure lingers.

Closed sales snapshot

Closed sales—typically more accurate on first print—came in -10.1% YoY for September (1,320 vs. 1,468 last year). Outside of a catch-up pop in May (after spring contracts), 2023 has been a down year for closings. In short, housing’s been in a “market recession” locally for a while, even if the broader economy debates labels. The reason it hasn’t felt catastrophic? Inventory hasn’t fully reverted to pre-pandemic norms.

Days on market signals

Days on Market until sale (DOM) ticked down to 40 in September from 41 in August (July was 38). That’s still up versus last September’s sub-30 readings, but the recent summer-to-early-fall range has been high-30s to low-40s. If Q4 mirrors last year, DOM could nudge into the high 40s or low 50s (which feels buyer-ish even if it’s closer to pre-2020 normal). The meta-point: the market is reacting to the speed of change (rates rocketing higher last year, then staying elevated), not just the absolute level compared with decades past.

Median vs. average price

• Median price: Up 1.6% YoY in September, effectively back at the year’s peak (around $319,900, per the episode’s narration; the discussion repeatedly frames the mid-$300Ks band since May). Seasonally, prices often ease into Q4; so far, stability reigns.

• Average price: Hit an all-time high in September at about $385,000, +6.3% YoY, and the strongest month since January. That jump underscores a sturdy luxury segment that’s relatively insulated from rate shocks (cash and big downs don’t blink at eighths the way 5%-down buyers do).

Why the split matters: Median tells the typical transaction story; average gets pulled around by the high end. Right now, both are firm—one steady, one surging—another way of saying “market stats show home prices in Greenville remain near their peak” without even trying.

Percent of list price received

Sellers are still capturing 98.7% of the list on average, flat to August and only about 1% lower than last year. Translation: price discipline matters. Homes new to market won’t often see big chops out of the gate, while stale listings remain negotiable (this figure excludes concessions, so rate buydowns or closing-cost help won’t show here).

Affordability index pulse

The Housing Affordability Index sits at 84, down from 92 a year ago—shaped by the trio of median price, prevailing mortgage rates, and median income. In quieter winter months, affordability sometimes ticks up seasonally as pricing cools; whether that happens now depends heavily on where mortgage rates settle (the episode notes late-October chatter about the 10-year yield pushing toward 5% and what that implies for 30-year mortgages). Policy-wise, more building would help; cutting building tends to push the index lower (simple supply lessons rarely go out of style).

Inventory and Months Supply

Inventory prints for the current month are often revised down later. August was first posted at 3,812 and revised to 3,398; September likely follows suit (estimate closer to 3,500 after revision). Big picture: inventory has been up year over year each month so far, drifting toward—but not quite reaching—pre-pandemic norms (~4,000). Quality remains uneven, especially sub-$300K where a lot of stock needs work.

Months’ supply shows the same revision issue. The splashy 3.2 for September is likely to be revised to high twos. August finalized at 2.7, up from 2.3 last August. The slow climb toward 3.0 signals a market easing off the ultra-tight lows but not flipping to “loose” (still seller-leaning, just less so).

Segments to watch: luxury and condos

Two standout lanes in Quick Facts:

• $1,000,001+ price range: +7.6% in sales (even as broader volume is down), confirming luxury’s insulation from high rates. This also aligns with the new record average price in September.

• Condos: The property type with the “strongest” sales performance (still down 1.9% YoY, but comparatively better), a nod to buyers nudging toward more affordable options when single-family stretches the budget.

What it means for sellers

• Price for today, not for 2021. With a percent-of-list near 98.7% and a DOM hovering around 40, well-positioned homes are still moving, but aspirational pricing bloats days and invites discounts later.

• Lead with a concessions strategy. Many buyers are payment-sensitive. Marketing flexibility up front (e.g., rate buydown help) can trigger faster contracts than silent price-only adjustments (think marquee, not fine print).

• Expect a seasonal fade. Q4 typically cools; pending/closed sales patterns already reflect it. If you must list now, preparation and strategy do the heavy lifting (fresh photos, tight copy, and a clear concessions game plan).

What it means for buyers

• Use seasonality. With demand softer and prices steady, winter offers room to negotiate structure—especially on homes sitting a while.

• Prioritize payment, not just price. Seller-funded rate buydowns can outperform small list-price reductions when rates are elevated (monthly math wins over sticker psychology).

• Target segments tactically. Condos can open doors at lower price points; the luxury lane is competitive but less rate-sensitive; sub-$300K single-family exists, but the condition often needs scrutiny.

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Bottom Line

The story inside September’s GGAR stats is consistency over drama. New listings followed a familiar arc. Pending and closed sales reflected rate-chilled demand. Days on market stabilized in the ~40 zone. Most importantly, market stats show home prices in Greenville remain near their peak: the median has barely budged from its yearly high, and the average hit a record on luxury strength. Affordability is strained, and inventory is improving modestly, but not enough to force a broad price reset.

In a market defined by fast rate moves and slower behavioral shifts, strategy beats speculation. Sellers who price cleanly and advertise concessions earn attention. Buyers who optimize payments instead of chasing headline discounts gain leverage. Stability is the surprise character this season—and for Greenville, that may be the most useful trend of all.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville