The Cost to Buy a Home Has Gone Up 26% Since January

Greenville’s housing story in early 2022 is stunning in its speed. In just a few short months, the typical monthly payment for a median-priced home has leapt by roughly 26%, and that’s not hyperbole—it’s math, the latest episode of Selling Greenville lays out plainly. Prices climbed, mortgage rates surged faster than almost anyone forecast, and the “cost of waiting” that seemed theoretical at the end of 2021 has already hit buyers right where it counts: the monthly payment.

This breakdown distills the episode’s core insights—numbers, context, and takeaways tailored to the Upstate market—so buyers and sellers can navigate a season that’s moving faster than the headlines.

Why the Cost to Buy a Home Up 26% Matters Right Now

Why does the 26% cost to buy a home matter? The episode revisits a topic from late 2021: the risk of waiting to buy. Back then, the host modeled what a year of rising prices and higher rates might do. Then the new year arrived, and within three and a half months, the “future scenario” showed up early.

Two forces did the heavy lifting:

• Prices jumped fast. Greenville’s median price moved from $280,000 in January 2022 to $295,000 by the end of March—an increase of about 5.36% in roughly two months. (Spring seasonality always nudges prices, but this was still a sizable pop.)

• Rates rose even faster. The rough, real-world rate many buyers saw at the start of the year—around 3.5%—climbed to about 5% by April. That’s a 43% increase in the rate itself, far quicker than forecasters anticipated.

Put together, those shifts translated into the kind of sticker shock buyers feel, not in principle, but in payment.

The payment math, plain and simple

The episode walks through an apples-to-apples comparison using a 5% down payment and principal/interest only (no taxes, insurance, PMI, or HOA):

• January scenario:

  • Price: $280,000

  • Down payment (5%): $14,000

  • Rate: ~3.5% (30-year)

  • Payment: about $1,194/month

• Late-March/April scenario:

  • Price: $295,000

  • Down payment (5%): $14,750 (that’s $750 more at the closing table)

  • Rate: ~5% (30-year)

  • Payment: over $1,500/month (roughly $310+ more every month)

That’s the headline: the cost to buy a home is up 26%—in the span of a single quarter.

For a long-term perspective, the episode also totals the principal-plus-interest across a full 30-year term at those rates:

• ~$430,000 on the earlier $280K purchase at ~3.5%

• ~$541,500 on the latter $295K purchase at ~5%

That’s a $110,000 difference across the life of the loan—before even considering that higher purchase prices will eventually be reflected in higher property tax assessments.

How did we get here so quickly?

The show points to multiple cross-currents:

• Ultra-tight inventory. March’s market stats (from Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS®) posted exactly one month of supply—about as tight as it gets. That scarcity supports higher prices.

• The spring surge. Every year, Greenville accelerates from March into May/June, then eases in July as vacations take hold. This year carries that familiar cadence—just with much higher velocity.

• Rates sprinted. Many thought 5% might be a year-end number. Instead, buyers saw it by April. Historically, today’s rates are still not “high,” but the speed of the climb rewired budgets overnight.

• Builders and supply chain signals. There are hints of progress—more permits pulled, some supply-chain improvements—while other bottlenecks persist. Net effect: unclear, but any supply relief takes time to reach the street.

The episode’s bottom line on causation is straightforward: prices kept rising while rates jumped quickly, and the combined impact landed squarely on buyers’ monthly payments.

Should buyers just wait it out?

The show doesn’t sugarcoat it: waiting has already proven expensive. And while markets do change, the episode outlines why pressing pause can be risky:

• Prices rarely go backward. Outside of the Great Recession’s unusual dynamics, prices tend to stabilize or rise, not fall.

• Rates are volatile—but refinancing is possible. If one of the two must “run hot,” the episode would rather it be rates than home values. Rates can fall; if they do, refinancing later might be an option. Prices typically do not rewind.

• Even a “stabilized” market costs more later. The optimistic scenario for the year-end? Maybe median price around $310K–$315K and rates near 5–5.5%. That’s still more costly than now.

In other words, if the plan is to buy in 2022, the episode argues that waiting likely magnifies the cost rather than reduces it.

What this means for first-time buyers (and anyone capped by a monthly payment)

The episode speaks candidly about affordability strain—especially for first-time buyers:

• A buyer who qualified for $300,000 in January may not qualify for that amount now. A 43% rate increase reshapes monthly payment ceilings and debt-to-income calculations.

• The sub-$300K segment remains “trench warfare”—fast, competitive, and crowded. Openings appear and disappear quickly; offer readiness matters.

• Some higher price points (think $600K–$700K) have shown price drops, at least anecdotally. Below $300K, competition is still fierce.

The actionable piece: buyers should re-verify their budget with their lender before writing offers at the top of their range. The episode even shares a behind-the-scenes example where the agent went back to underwriting for a client because rates had moved so quickly—an extra step that can prevent heartbreak later.

Why this isn’t a Realtor victory lap

The show makes a point many miss: agents don’t celebrate rising payments. Yes, sale prices affect commissions at the margins, but the bulk of the buyer’s pain right now is rate-driven, not commission-driven. And no one in the industry wants to see buyers stretched into payments that put them at risk later. The episode mentions hearing from past clients struggling post-pandemic; that’s not the outcome anyone wants.

What could cool things down?

No crystal ball here, but the show offers guardrails:

• Inventory needs to rise meaningfully for appreciation to slow.

• Seasonality could introduce a breather mid-summer as the vacation season dulls demand.

• Rates could drift lower at some point, creating refinance windows.

• A true flatlining of prices would likely require a recession-level event, which isn’t the base case discussed in the episode.

Until then, buyers should expect a market that remains hot, particularly under the median price—just with higher payments than anyone expected back in January.

Practical steps buyers can take today

1. Reconfirm your numbers. Ask your lender to update your approval at today’s rate—before you offer.

2. Tighten timelines. If you’re ready to buy, act quickly when a match appears; delay can push you into the next rate bump.

3. Focus on where you can win. Below $300K is intense; consider widening the search or identifying homes a bit above budget where price softening is possible (the episode notes some movement in the $600K–$700K range).

4. Expect to compete. Especially under the median, prepare for crowded showings and quick decisions.

5. Plan for the long view. If you lock in a higher rate now and rates fall later, refinancing may be an option; if prices keep rising, you’ll be glad you secured today’s value.

Practical steps for sellers

1. Price to the market you’re in. Spring brings demand, but overpricing still backfires—often leading to a lower ultimate sale.

2. Know your lane. Homes near and below the median fly; upper brackets may need sharper pricing and better presentation now.

3. Expect serious buyers. Rising payments tend to funnel in motivated, financially vetted purchasers; be ready to move efficiently once the right offer appears.

The human side: pace yourself

The episode acknowledges the emotional burn of searching for months, adjusting budgets, and losing to multiple offers. That’s real. It’s also why clarity—on budget, on must-haves, on timing—matters more than ever. If the numbers don’t pencil at today’s payment, regroup. If they do, move with conviction.

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Bottom Line

In just a few months, Greenville’s median price rose from $280K to $295K, and rates jumped from ~3.5% to ~5%—together pushing the monthly payment on the median home over $300 higher than it was to start the year. That’s how the cost to buy a home, up 26%, became the spring’s defining stat.

If buying this year is your plan, the episode’s message is clear: waiting has already been costly. Prices tend to rise, inventory remains tight, and while rates may ebb later (opening refinance possibilities), the homes themselves are unlikely to get cheaper. Reconfirm your budget, move decisively when the right property appears, and structure offers that reflect today’s realities rather than last winter’s rates.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville