The Market Shifts, but Home Prices Continue to Soar

Greenville’s housing market has been rewriting the rulebook for nearly two years. Inventory is rising at a pace not seen since before 2020, days on market are lengthening, and sellers are no longer guaranteed to beat their list price. And yet—prices are still climbing year over year. In this episode recap of Selling Greenville, the data from the Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS® (GGAR) for September makes one thing clear: the market is changing, but the story isn’t uniform. Demand is cooling, behavior is adjusting, and prices continue to hold firm in surprising ways.

Home Prices Continue to Soar

Home Prices Continue to Soar: That’s the headline running through September’s stats. Even as other indicators point toward normalization, the median sales price in Greater Greenville rose 17.5% year over year to $315,000, bouncing up from August’s $310,000 after peaking at $317,000 in July. Seasonality typically pulls prices down in the back half of the year, and there’s still a reasonable chance the median drifts under $305,000—or even below $300,000—before December wraps. But the operative fact today is that Greenville home prices continue to soar compared with last year.

New listings: a surprise uptick

The first curveball came from new listings. Instead of slowing, September posted a 9.2% year-over-year increase (1,905 new listings vs. 1,744 last year). That rise wasn’t a month-to-month surge, but it’s notable. What’s behind it? It could be as simple as sellers reading the tea leaves: the market is shifting, affordability is strained, and some homeowners are deciding to list while the getting’s still good. Whether that’s “panic selling” or prudent timing depends on your vantage point—but the result is the same: more choices on the shelf than buyers have seen in a long time.

Pending and closed sales: demand cools

Pending sales (offers accepted) remain the early warning system, and the signal is clear. While the most recent month’s pendings often get revised, August’s finalized number showed a 19.2% year-over-year drop—the tenth straight month of declines. Unsurprisingly, closed sales followed suit in September: down 11.2% year over year. Two of the last three months have posted double-digit declines in closings, a striking reversal after a historic stretch of activity in 2021.

Mortgage rates: the aftershock engine

None of this exists in a vacuum. Rates moved from 3.4% in January to 7.2% in October on a 30-year mortgage. That arc alone reshapes what buyers can afford and how quickly they move. The show notes frame this well: when costs jump that fast, contracts slow, and so do closings. The national context matters too; non-seasonally adjusted data in many U.S. markets suggest depreciation at the margin. Greenville, however, continues to look more resilient than the national average.

Days on market: still fast, but rising

If you bought or sold in 2021, “fast” meant lightning fast. Greenville’s days on market until sale (the time from list to accepted offer) often hovered in the 20s—an outlier by historic standards. In September, that average ticked up to 27 days, a 12.5% increase from 24 a year earlier. Historically, 40–80 days was normal pre-pandemic. Expectation setting matters here: as buyers adapt to a world with more options, they won’t sprint into every new listing. The show forecasts we’ll likely see the 30s soon, then the 40s, and potentially the 50s–60s in 2023 as habits recalibrate.

Percent of list price received: reversion to normal

Here’s where the shift is starkest. For most of 2021 and much of early 2022, the percentage of list price received sat over 100%—meaning the average home sold above list. That era is fading. September dropped to 98.8%, a big slide from 104% a year earlier and from 99.6% in August. Pre-pandemic, ~98% was normal. Today’s number says it plainly: buyers can negotiate again, especially on properties that launched too hot and are now stacked up against a bigger slate of alternatives.

Affordability: still tight

The Housing Affordability Index sits at 75, matching the lowest levels of the past several months (it has flipped between 75 and 76). By definition, that means the median household earns only 75% of what’s needed to qualify for the median-priced home at prevailing interest rates. Wages haven’t caught up with the combined bite of price gains and higher financing costs.

Inventory: back near pre-pandemic levels

The supply narrative is the loudest it’s been in years. At the end of September, active listings hit 3,978, an 83.6% year-over-year jump (2,167 a year ago) and nearly triple the lows seen in March (~1,400). Pre-2020, Greater Greenville hovered around 4,000 active listings. We’re basically there again. Pushed by higher rates and slower absorption, that number could climb into the 5,000s, even 6,000s, which would echo 2014–2015 conditions and push the market further toward balance.

Months supply of inventory: the next shoe to drop

Months supply is simply active inventory divided by the average pending sales over the past 12 months. It bottomed at 1.0 in March and has risen methodically: 1.1 (Apr), 1.3 (May), 1.8 (Jun), 2.1 (Jul), 2.3 (Aug). Given the trend, ~2.5 in September seems likely once revisions settle. Context: pre-pandemic Greenville sat around 3–4 months, and 6+ months historically tips into a buyer’s market.

Here’s the twist the episode highlights: because months supply uses a 12-month average of pending sales, the full weight of today’s weaker demand hasn’t fully hit the formula yet. As the strong late-2021 pending months age out and the softer 2022 months dominate that average, months supply could jump sharply—potentially leaping from the 3s into the 4s or 5s in a single month this winter.

What this means if you’re buying

• More choice, less whiplash. With inventory near 4,000 and climbing, buyers can actually compare homes—visit this weekend, revisit next, and write the list below without automatically losing.

• Negotiation returns. Price, closing costs, and due diligence termination fees—terms are becoming more buyer-friendly. The show notes a noticeable drop in termination fees from the peak seller-market norms earlier this year.

• Timing vs. product. Chasing the “bottom” is risky. A smarter focus is finding a home that fits both needs and budget as the right one appears—especially since Greenville hasn’t yet shown non-seasonal price declines.

What does this mean if you’re selling

• Price it right on day one. In 2021, overpricing sometimes “worked” because the market lifted into the number in a few weeks. That tailwind has faded. Overpriced listings are cutting and still selling under their revised list.

• Expect more time. 27 days is still quick by historic standards, but not instant. Prepare for measured showing traffic and a negotiation cycle that looks more like 2017–2019 than 2021.

• Strong, not frothy. It’s still a seller’s market today. The median is up 17.5% year over year, and the list-to-sale at 98.8% is healthy. But plan for a market that rewards accuracy, not audacity.

Product mix shifts: condos and smaller footprints

On a rolling 12-month basis, the episode highlights a split: condo closings are up ~2%, while single-family homes are down ~7%. And sales of homes with two bedrooms or fewer are up about 9.5% year over year. That’s textbook affordability pressure—buyers stretching dollars by adjusting size and style rather than exiting the market altogether.

Greenville vs. the national picture

The broader U.S. snapshot shows non-seasonal softening in prices across many metros. Greenville’s data, for now, looks more resilient: prices remain up strongly year over year, and demand—though cooler—is still historically solid for the season. The market is normalizing rather than nosediving.

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Bottom Line

Greenville has entered a new phase. Supply is back to pre-pandemic territory, buyers have room to breathe, and sellers are relearning the art of pricing. Yet amid all that, Greenville home prices continue to soar on a year-over-year basis, with September’s median climbing to $315,000 and list-to-sale settling at a healthy 98.8%.

Expect more normalization in the months ahead: days on market drifting up, months supply potentially jumping as late-2021 demand rolls off the averages, and negotiation regaining its place at the table. For buyers, that means options and leverage. For sellers, it means strategy over swagger. For everyone, it means watching the data—not the drama

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville