The Market Slows but Home Prices Stay High

When seasonal winds usually cool real estate activity, Greater Greenville’s numbers took a less predictable path. Listings pulsed rather than peaked, pendings softened even after upward revisions, and yet prices climbed to fresh highs. In short: The Market Slows—but price momentum hasn’t followed suit.

Why The Market Slows While Prices Stay High

This month’s read shows an unusual rhythm. New listings posted 1,847 in October—up 8% year over year and higher month over month—mirroring the area’s recurring “October bump.” Instead of one tall summer spike followed by a smooth glide down, this year formed a crown of mini-peaks and dips. That’s what happens when would-be sellers delay, delay, delay…until life (job changes, a growing family, relocation) says, “go now.”

On the demand side, the freshest pending-sales figure for October arrived down 13.7% year over year. And even the prior month’s pendings remind us how preliminary these snapshots can be: September was first posted at 728 before being revised sharply up to 1,092—a massive change that still leaves the trend cooler than last year.

So yes, The Market Slows in activity. But prices? They’re writing a different story.

New Listings: The October Pulse

• 1,847 new listings, +8% YoY.

• A stop-and-start listing flow all year produced multiple small crests rather than a single summer summit.

• Expect November to cool from October’s pop—but the bigger picture is a year defined by fits and starts, not clean, textbook seasonality.

Pending & Closed Sales: Softer Front End, Surprisingly Steady Closings

• Pendings: October down 13.7% YoY (with big prior-month revisions reminding everyone to take the first print with caution).

• Closed sales: October finished at 1,229 vs. 1,232 a year earlier—essentially flat, just a ~2% YoY slip.

• Don’t be shocked if November underperforms last year while December prints less negative—or even modestly positive—against last year’s unusually steep December drop.

Days on Market: Rising, Then Leveling

• 41 days to sale in October, up from 32 a year ago (+28.1% YoY), and just one day slower than September.

• After a surge off pandemic-era lows (around 20 DOM), the metric settled into the high-30s/low-40s and may soon print a negative YoY as last year’s curve steepened into late Q4.

Prices: Record High Median, Strong Average

• Median sales price: a record $324,000–$325,000, +7.7% YoY.

• Average sales price: ~$381,000, +6% YoY.

• Why the lift even as activity cools? One factor is the rising share of new construction, which is typically priced above resale. Builders’ rate-buydowns have sweetened monthly payments, pulling buyers across the finish line at slightly higher sticker prices but manageable cash flow.

List-to-Sale Reality: Less Sizzle, More Concessions

• Percent of list price received: 98.3%, down from 98.7% last month and YoY—the biggest step down in a while.

• Behind the scenes, seller concessions are common (rate buydowns, closing cost help). Builders largely re-normalized these incentives, and sellers followed.

Affordability: A New Low

• Housing Affordability Index: 79, an all-time low for the area.

• Rates in the mid-7s during the snapshot period did the most damage; if mortgage rates retreat, expect this index to rebound faster than home prices fall. Prices matter, but rate math dominates monthly payments.

Inventory & Months of Supply: Up—and More Meaningful Than the Old “6-Month Rule”

• Inventory has climbed since spring. September was revised to ~3,542 homes (about 10% lower than the initial print), while October’s first pass will likely be revised lower, too. The trend is still up.

• Months of supply: ~2.8 months in September, rising steadily from April’s 2.2. October likely sits near 2.9–3.0 after revisions.

• The old rule of thumb said “six months = balanced market.” That framework is wobbling. In some metros, meaningful price softening started well below six months. The practical local takeaway: around 4–4.5 months could feel like a buyer’s market to consumers conditioned by several fast-selling years—even if the spreadsheet says otherwise.

Segment Check: Who’s Moving What

• Pending sales by price:

  • $500k–$750k: +0.5% YoY

  • $750k–$1M: –11.7% YoY (few listings, jumbo-rate friction)

  • $1M+: +6.3% YoY (more cash/alt-liquidity buyers)

• Closed sales by price:

  • $500k–$750k: +4.2% YoY

  • $750k–$1M: –4.5% YoY

  • $1M+: +13.6% YoY

• Property type:

  • Condos/townhomes pendings: +4% YoY as affordability nudges buyers toward attached options.

  • Condos/townhomes closings: –6.8% YoY, a reminder that pipeline timing and financing headwinds don’t always sync with initial demand.

Builders, Buydowns, and the Shape of Demand

New construction has been the pressure valve for a thin resale shelf. Even buyers who didn’t start with “new” in mind keep discovering that rate buydowns, warranties, and minimal immediate repair risk can beat an older home that needs work—especially when the payment pencils out despite a higher sales price. That shift helps explain why the median price keeps rising while The Market Slows in unit activity.

Macro Watch: A Recession That Could Help Housing

Locally, the housing sector has already endured its own recession in activity. If the broader U.S. economy weakens, mortgage rates historically fall faster than prices, often rekindling housing demand before the rest of the economy recovers. There may be a short window of discomfort if the rate policy lags deteriorating data, but the medium-view case favors housing stabilizing first.

What Buyers and Sellers Should Do Right Now

For sellers: Price to today, not to last spring. Expect 98%–99% of the list after right-sizing, and be prepared for concessions—especially on rate buydowns. Clean presentation and realistic timing beat chasing yesterday’s comp.

For buyers: Don’t let affordability headlines freeze you. Watch the monthly payment math more than the list price. If rates dip, competition can re-ignite quickly, so keep pre-approval fresh and your offer terms polished. New construction—when the incentives line up—can deliver better net affordability than many expect.

For everyone: Monitor months of supply and affordability more than noise. If supply climbs toward 4 months, expect leverage to shift; if rates fall meaningfully, expect demand to jump ahead of prices.

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Bottom Line

Volume is sluggish, but pricing power isn’t gone. Inventory is creeping higher, concessions are back, and mortgage rates remain the lever that moves everything else. If rates ease, affordability snaps back faster than prices adjust; if inventory breaks above the low-3s into the 4-month range, the experience on the ground will feel decidedly more buyer-tilted. Until then, The Market Slows—and prices keep proving sticky at the top.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville