We Are in a Housing Market Recession, but One Completely Unlike 2008

There’s a loud, ongoing argument in real estate right now. One camp insists the current slowdown is a rerun of 2008–2009. The other argues the fundamentals are different this time—and the data proves it. In a recent episode of Selling Greenville, the host breaks down the national numbers through a Greenville, South Carolina, lens and lands on a clear conclusion: yes, the U.S. is in a housing market recession, but the mechanics look nothing like the last crash.

This isn’t a headline built for clicks. It’s a walk-through of sales volume, listing supply, active inventory, delinquency rates, and price behavior—layered with what’s actually happening in the Upstate right now. If you’ve been wondering why fewer closings haven’t translated into a price freefall and why it still feels like a seller’s market on the ground, this explainer connects the dots.

Housing Market Recession, Unlike 2008

Housing Market Recession: Starts with the metric that exposes recessions fastest: existing home sales. Plot them back to the late ’90s, and four valleys jump off the page. The deepest came with the Great Recession, when monthly sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized) fell toward the mid-3 million. A smaller, very sharp dip followed in 2020 during lockdowns, then sales whipped to a peak as pent-up transactions closed.

Now? The market slid to 4.0 million at the start of this year—its lowest since the Great Recession—then quickly rebounded to 4.58 million in February. By that sales-count measure alone, the U.S. is already in a housing market recession. But the experience on the ground feels different from 2008, and Greenville illustrates why.

Why today’s recession doesn’t feel like 2008

Two supply charts tell the story.

New listings: During the pandemic, new listings plunged, clawed back, and then—over the past year—dropped off again. The “why” is intuitive. Owners locked in 30-year mortgages at 2–3% and don’t want to swap them for 6–7% financing. Many also hesitate to sell because they don’t see enough to buy.

Active listings: Zooming out to the ’80s shows a long-term average of around 2.3 million active listings. Right before the 2008 collapse, that ballooned to roughly 4 million—a flood of supply that swamped demand. From there, inventory trended down for years and never truly recovered. Builders stayed conservative. Meanwhile, demand broadened as generations stacked up: Millennials entering prime buying years, Gen X stabilizing after earlier setbacks, and many Baby Boomers active in the market, too.

The punchline: today’s market is operating with about 1 million active listings—a fraction of 2008’s supply. Demand cooled as rates rose, but supply tightened even more. Prices don’t fall easily in that setup; instead, transactions fall. That’s exactly what we’re seeing.

Delinquencies and foreclosures: the missing domino

Back in 2008, mortgage delinquencies climbed ahead of the crash, then spiked—feeding foreclosures and distressed sales that dragged prices down. Today, first-lien delinquencies are well below long-term averages (roughly 3.45% vs. a ~4.54% average). That lower distress rate matters. When owners have equity and jobs, they list (or wait), not default. Without a wave of forced sellers, price behavior looks stickier—even in a recessionary sales environment.

Could that change? A severe rise in unemployment could push distress higher, especially among buyers who purchased recently with minimal equity. But as of now, the delinquency backdrop looks nothing like the run-up to 2008.

Prices: flatlines, pockets, and a Greenville reality check

Nationally, the home price index showed several months of mild monthly declines before a February upturn. Year-over-year growth decelerated to around 1.9%, a far cry from 20% surges during the frenzy, but still positive. Regionally, the drag is coming from the West—think California, Arizona, Utah, Washington, and a Texas metro—while much of the East is flat to slightly higher. The Carolinas and Georgia posted small month-over-month gains (~0.1–0.2% on the index).

Greenville’s day-to-day tells the same tale from the ground up. Inventory recently slipped in a matter of weeks—from around 3,200 active listings to about 2,600—as the spring season approached. Fewer active homes plus renewed seasonal demand equals firmer pricing behavior, not weakness. Buyers still face competition for well-priced homes; sellers still command a market that, functionally, behaves like a seller’s market.

The “new normal” (and why the past won’t map perfectly)

If this feels different, it’s because it is. The pandemic permanently shifted the playing field: how owners value sub-3% mortgages, how quickly they’ll move, how builders pace supply, and how national policy ripples through local markets. The host calls it a new normal—a market that can be in recession by sales volume while still feeling tight because of inventory. That duality is confusing if you’re expecting a 2008-style cascade. But the inputs aren’t the same, so the output won’t be either.

What this means for Greenville buyers and sellers right now

For buyers

• Expect fewer options and faster movement on correctly priced homes.

• Price dips are not a given locally; plan offers are around current comps, not national headlines.

• If you waited for big discounts, watch inventory numbers. In Greenville, when active listings shrink, leverage often does too

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For sellers

• The market for listings is thinner than the market for closings. That’s an advantage.

• Pricing still matters. Overreach, and homes sit; hit the window, and activity shows up.

• If you’re sitting on a sub-3% mortgage, weigh the monthly cost of trading it against your timeline and need to move. Many owners will choose to stay put—that’s one reason supply remains tight.

  
  

For everyone tracking “What’s Next,” national prices could slip in select months or metros (especially out West), but the Greenville lens points to a steadier story: fewer closings, leaner inventory, and a competitive environment for well-priced homes. Unless supply meaningfully expands—or unemployment spikes—this remains a housing market recession unlike 2008.

The debate will keep raging—watch the right gauges

The episode notes how heated online arguments have become, with both sides reading the same charts and seeing different futures. A practical way through: watch these gauges, not just the headlines.

• Existing home sales: show the recession in volume and whether rebounds stick.

• New listings & active inventory: the ceiling and floor for price behavior.

• Delinquencies: the early warning signal for forced selling.

• Local splits: national indexes can hide regional divides; the West vs. East pattern matters.

  
  

Layer those onto local Greenville metrics—like week-to-week active counts—and you’ll have a sharper picture than any all-caps take on social media.

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Bottom Line

By the numbers, the U.S. is already in a housing market recession. By feel, Greenville is not in a rerun of 2008. Back then, excess supply and rising delinquencies forced prices down. Today, lean listings, conservative building, and low delinquency rates are keeping prices far more resilient—even as closings run below normal.

Translate that locally, and you get a tight, competitive Greenville market where buyers need precision and speed, and sellers with the right price still have the edge. Different inputs, different outcomes—and a very different recession.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville