10 Bold Predictions for 2024!

After a holiday season that felt unusually calm, the local real estate world stepped into January with a mix of curiosity, energy, and that familiar hopefulness that comes with a clean slate (the kind of “new year, new me” energy that lasts at least until the second cup of coffee).

As the new year settled in, the air was thick with questions about rates, demand, supply, and the broader economic climate. Whether someone was buying, selling, or simply watching the market, it was a moment that invited real reflection (not the “I should join a gym” kind—the actual thoughtful kind). And that’s exactly what emerged: 10 Bold Predictions shaped by data, grounded by experience, and sharpened by patterns that defined the past year.

Where the Market Goes Next: 10 Bold Predictions

The new year opened with uncertainty swirling around the Federal Reserve, inflation trends, and mortgage rate behavior. Analysts across the country couldn’t seem to agree—which made this moment ripe for a closer, measured look. What follows isn’t guesswork but a thoughtful mapping of trends that genuinely matter for anyone navigating real estate in 2024 (because winging it works for brunch plans, not property decisions).

1. The First Rate Cuts Arrive in the Second Quarter

The economy is showing signs of cooling, but not in a way that suggests a spiraling downturn. With conflicting forecasts from major analysts, this prediction cuts through the noise: the first meaningful rate cuts are likely to land sometime in the second quarter. Markets need room to breathe, and by spring, that space may finally appear.

(If the Fed had a dating profile, it would probably say “Here for a long-term relationship with low inflation,” which… isn’t exactly thrilling.)

2. No Recession on the 2024 Horizon

Despite loud recession chatter from online doom circles (often louder than necessary), the data points toward stability. Jobs remain strong, wages are holding, and spending continues at a healthy pace. In an election year, the economic gears already lean toward maintaining steadiness. All signs suggest the year will avoid a recession altogether.

3. Mortgage Rates Spend the Entire Year in the Sixes

After brushing dangerously close to 8% in 2023, rates cooled into the mid-6% range—and that environment may stick around. With current Treasury yields and market behaviors aligning, the sixes seem to be the sweet spot for 2024. Not low enough to cause a frenzy, but not high enough to freeze the market either.

4. Inventory Remains Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Despite years of waiting for a major inventory rebound, supply continues hovering below where it sat before 2020. Even with gradual increases last year, the gap remains. With demand likely rising faster than new supply entering the market, inventory is projected to stay suppressed throughout 2024 (kind of like waiting for your favorite restaurant to restock that one dish—and the delivery truck keeps showing up with everything except that).

5. Pending Sales Dip in Q1, Then Rise Steadily

The first quarter may feel a little sluggish compared to last year. But once spring hits, activity is expected to rebound. As mortgage rates stabilize and the weather warms, pending sales should rise year-over-year for the final three quarters.

6. Days on Market Stay Below 60 All Year

Last year’s prediction overshot the mark, but this year brings a clearer picture. With inventory still tight and buyers active when rates dip, homes are expected to continue selling in under 60 days on average. Not the lightning-fast days of 2021, but certainly brisk enough to signal a strong, balanced market.

7. Single-Family Closings Rise Slightly

While national experts forecast a mild decline in closings, Greenville may buck the trend. Local dynamics point toward a modest rise—somewhere between 0% and 3%—aided by stabilizing rates and early buyer confidence.

8. Multifamily Sales Finally Break 100 Closings

Greenville MLS has never seen more than 100 multifamily closings in a single year, but 2024 may be the moment. With rising delinquencies nationally and refinancing pressure on owners, more small multifamily properties may hit the market. By year’s end, the MLS count could easily push past the long-standing ceiling.

(For anyone tracking trends, this might feel like checking your mailbox every day and finally seeing the package you forgot you ordered.)

9. Foreclosures Rise Slightly, but Stay Historically Low

Some increase is expected—but nothing even remotely close to a crisis. With strong equity positions, flexible borrower options, and today’s safer lending standards, distressed sales should remain well below pre-pandemic norms. Most homeowners who fall behind still have time to pivot, sell, or adjust before entering full foreclosure.

10. Median Prices Rise Between 3% and 6%

This is the prediction many people care about most. While monthly swings will exist, the year-end view is expected to land between 3% and 6% growth. Not the breakneck gains of pandemic-era appreciation, but healthy, steady movement rooted in real demand and limited supply.

(If the market had a personality, this price trend would be the “I don’t cause drama; I am drama” kind—slow, steady, and impossible to ignore.)

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Bottom Line

The journey into 2024 arrives with clarity, grounded forecasts, and a renewed sense of direction. 10 Bold Predictions help frame what’s ahead: a year shaped by stabilizing rates, modest price growth, a touch more inventory movement, and a housing market that continues to evolve without losing its balance (think of it as a tightrope walk, but at least the rope isn’t shaking this time).

While challenges remain—tight supply, affordability pressure, and ongoing economic uncertainty—the path forward looks steady and manageable. Greenville’s market has proven its resilience year after year, and 2024 appears ready to follow that same dependable rhythm (like a playlist you can trust to never skip to the weird songs).

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville