Comparing 2023 Real Estate to the RE Market in 2008–2020

Greenville’s real estate scene has gone through more transformations than a home on HGTV. From the chaotic crash of 2008 to the pandemic-fueled frenzy of 2020, every era has brought its own surprises, lessons, and opportunities. In this episode of Selling Greenville, the conversation turns reflective as host Stan McCune compares today’s real estate market with three pivotal time periods: the Great Recession (2008–2011), the post-recession recovery (2012–2015), and the pre-pandemic boom (2016–2020).

Spoiler: the 2023 market is no repeat of 2008—and that’s good news for nearly everyone involved.

Comparing 2023 Real Estate to 2008–2020

When it comes to comparing 2023 real estate to the RE market in 2008–2020, the contrasts are striking. Back in 2008, homes sat on the market for months—or even years—waiting for buyers who never came.

Foreclosures flooded the system, HUD listings piled up, and investors could pick up downtown Greenville homes for as little as $100,000 (which now sounds like the real estate version of a fairy tale).

At that time, deals that hit the two percent rule—where monthly rent equaled 2% of a property’s purchase price—were common. You could buy a $25,000 condo and rent it for $650 a month. But that abundance came with an equal and opposite problem: buyers were scarce. Selling a flip often took a year or longer, and many contractors left the business entirely.

Fast-forward to 2023, and it’s an entirely different story. Inventory is tight, foreclosures are nearly nonexistent, and properties rarely linger for more than a few weeks. Even homes that are overpriced at first tend to sell after a price adjustment. The bottom line? Today’s market may be slower than the 2021 frenzy, but it’s nowhere near the paralysis of 2008.

(Back then, listings collected dust. Now, they collect offers.)

Lessons from the Great Recession (2008–2011)

The housing collapse of 2008 created a market defined by fear. Homeowners were underwater, credit tightened, and “For Sale” signs became yard decorations that overstayed their welcome. For buyers with capital, it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. For sellers, it was an endurance test.

That era taught investors to look beyond short-term appreciation. It was about buying for cash flow and holding for recovery. Still, Stan points out that the 2008 playbook doesn’t apply to 2023. The foreclosure surge that made those deals possible was fueled by bad loans, speculative lending, and oversupply. Today’s lending standards are stronger, homeowners have more equity, and there’s simply not enough housing to trigger another collapse.

So while some still predict a repeat of the 2008 bust, Stan doesn’t buy it—literally or figuratively.

The Post-Recession Reset (2012–2015)

After the dust settled, Greenville entered what Stan calls the “neutral market.” Homes weren’t flying off the shelves, but they weren’t languishing either. Inventory was balanced, prices were reasonable, and investors could still find plenty of one-percent-rule rental properties.

Back then, a $40,000 condo with a tenant paying $700 a month wasn’t rare—it was expected. Buyers could tour multiple homes in a weekend without feeling rushed. And retail buyers, not investors, dominated the market, which kept bidding wars in check.

In 2023, things are far less relaxed. While buyers can once again visit several homes in a day (a luxury that disappeared during the pandemic), inventory is still limited. Deals that meet the one-percent rule are rare, and buyers often compete with investors and cash offers. Retail buyers, especially first-timers, still face the same pressure: limited choices and stiff competition.

The Pre-Pandemic Boom (2016–2020)

This was Greenville’s “Goldilocks market”—hot but not overheated. Homes listed on Tuesday were often still available by the weekend. Offers at 98% of the list price were common, and occasional bidding wars broke out on the best listings. Cash offers weren’t the norm, but they existed.

Fast forward to 2023, and the resemblance is uncanny. Properties typically sell within a few weeks, often for just 1–2% below list price. Contingencies—once banished during the pandemic frenzy—are back in style. Buyers can now negotiate for repairs or closing costs, but lowball offers still rarely fly.

The major difference? Cash. There’s far more of it in the market now than before 2020, and it gives certain buyers a clear edge. Interest rates have cooled demand, but not enough to shift control to buyers. As Stan puts it, 2023 feels like “pre-pandemic real estate—just with less caffeine and more cash.”

Why 2023 Isn’t a Repeat of 2008

The biggest distinction between today and the Great Recession boils down to one word: inventory.

In 2008, homes flooded the market. Banks were dumping foreclosures, builders were oversupplied, and sellers were desperate. In 2023, there’s an inventory drought. Most homeowners are “locked in” at 3% mortgage rates and have little incentive to sell. Even with slower demand due to higher rates, there still aren’t enough listings to meet buyer interest.

Without a surge of available homes, a crash like 2008 simply isn’t on the horizon. As Stan explains, “Everyone predicting a housing collapse can’t seem to identify where the supply is going to come from.”

And if mortgage rates fall in the next year or two, the pent-up demand could trigger the opposite—another wave of bidding wars and frantic weekends for realtors and buyers alike.

Investing Realities: Then vs. Now

For real estate investors, each era since 2008 has offered a different lesson:

• 2008–2011: Buy cheap, hold long. Cash flow was king.

• 2012–2015: Find stable properties with strong rental yields.

• 2016–2020: Flip cautiously; appreciation covered small mistakes.

• 2021–2022: Move fast or miss out entirely.

• 2023: Be strategic. Creative deals, short-term rentals, and value-add opportunities still exist—but they take patience and precision.

  
  

Stan’s advice mirrors what smart investors already know: adapt your playbook to the market you’re in, not the one you wish you had.

What Buyers and Sellers Should Know

For buyers, the 2023 market demands balance. Move decisively, but don’t panic. The days of offering $50,000 over list price are largely gone, but hesitation can still cost you the right home.

For sellers, realistic pricing is key. Overpriced homes eventually sell—but only after price adjustments and lost time. Homes priced appropriately still attract strong offers, often within a week or two.

And while interest rates have slowed momentum, they’ve also introduced sanity. Buyers now have room to negotiate. Sellers now must justify value. In many ways, that’s what a healthy market looks like.

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Bottom Line

Greenville’s real estate market has weathered every kind of storm—crashes, recoveries, and booms—and 2023 isn’t the apocalypse some predicted. If anything, it’s a recalibration. Prices have steadied, buyers are adjusting, and sellers are learning patience again.

Today’s housing scene feels most like 2016–2020: competitive, stable, and favoring sellers—but not overwhelmingly. It’s a reminder that real estate isn’t just cyclical; it’s adaptable. And in Greenville, adaptability has always been the key to thriving, no matter the market cycle.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville