How Did Stan Do Predicting 2023's Real Estate Trends?

The final weeks of the year invite a simple (and surprisingly useful) question: how well did last year’s bold calls hold up? In this year-end audit, the show looks back at ten predictions made for 2023 and grades each one with candor—celebrating the hits, owning the misses, and drawing out what the outcomes actually say about the Greenville housing landscape.

Rather than hand-waving about “vibes,” the review leans on concrete, locally grounded signals: mortgage rate whiplash, sales volume, price behavior (median vs. average), foreclosure activity, affordability, inventory, days on market, and the return of true fixer-uppers. It’s a practical post-mortem for anyone who wants to see what tracked—and why it matters heading into another year of change.

Predicting 2023's Real Estate Trends: What Landed, What Missed

A year ago, the show published ten bold calls about the year ahead. Here’s how those predictions fared—what proved prescient, what proved premature, and what landed somewhere in the gray.

1) Mortgage rates would hit the low–mid 5s at some point in 2023—Miss

This was the biggest whiff. The expectation was that tightening would ease and mortgage rates would drift into the mid-5% range at some point. Instead, 30-year rates spent much of the year higher, even flirting with 8% before retreating. By mid-December, rates saw a dramatic slide—roughly half a point in 48 hours—touching about 6.62% on Mortgage News Daily the day this episode was recorded. Volatile? Absolutely. But the low-to-mid-5s never materialized.

Takeaway: Rate direction is macro and messy. The volatility alone—up toward 8%, down into the mid-6s within weeks—explains why timing rate calls is a humbling business.

2) The U.S. would see a mild recession, and local closings would fall 10–15% YoY—Half Right

A mild national recession never clearly showed up—labor and wages didn’t post the numbers you’d expect in a bona fide contraction. But the housing recession continued. Local closings tracked down roughly 11% year-over-year, landing squarely in the predicted 10–15% range.

Takeaway: Even without a headline recession, housing can—and did—cool in volume.

3) Median home prices would stabilize but not decline—Hit

The call here was for stabilization, not a slide. That’s exactly what played out. Month to month, most prints were positive, with only a single negative blip (May at roughly –0.6% YoY). A standout: October posted a robust +7.7% YoY print. The broader theme held—growth slowed from the rocket-fuel years, but the bottom didn’t fall out.

Takeaway: “Slowing” is not “reversing.” Median told the truer story than the headline noise.

4) The average sales price would post at least one negative YoY month—Hit

Unlike the median, the average is more easily skewed by a handful of high-end sales. The prediction was simply that at some point, the average would roll negative year-over-year. March obliged at about –1.3%.

Takeaway: When you want market direction, watch the median. When you want to test volatility, the average will raise its hand.

5) National foreclosure rates would remain at or near all-time lows—Hit

Despite social media doom cycles predicting waves of distress, foreclosures stayed remarkably low all year. With owners well-positioned and equity strong, the surge that many warned about never arrived.

Takeaway: Equity cushions matter. So does tighter post-2010 underwriting.

6) Greenville would see its first increase in housing affordability since 2011—Miss

Two of the three hoped-for ingredients showed up—slower appreciation and stronger wages. But rates didn’t fall far enough to move the needle on the index. As an example point in time, the housing affordability index sat around 79 by October versus about 96 in January, moving in the wrong direction for this prediction.

Takeaway: Affordability is a three-legged stool: prices, rates, and incomes. Rates dominated the story.

7) Realtor turnover would exceed 50%—Miss

Turnover didn’t spike that high. Membership counts edged down by only a few percentage points year-over-year, and while there’s certainly churn, it wasn’t anywhere near the 50% mark.

Takeaway: Some industry niches (like refi-heavy lending roles) took bigger hits. The residential agency proved more resilient than expected.

8) Total inventory would stay below pre-pandemic levels; months’ supply might briefly top them—Mostly Hit

Inventory remained below pre-pandemic norms throughout the year. Even a months’ supply, which might have popped above, stayed under.

Takeaway: The lock-in effect is very real. When a big swath of owners hold 3% mortgages, new listings don’t flood the market.

9) Days on market (DOM) would reach the highest level since 2016—Miss

Early in the year, DOM rose into the high 50s and looked primed to climb. Then momentum reversed. By mid-year, DOM eased back into the low 40s and hovered there. A behavioral shift played a role: sellers who must move in a 6–7% rate world don’t typically wait months—they price to the market or step aside. Also, DOM doesn’t capture stale listings that never transact; those outliers don’t show until they sell.

Takeaway: Post-2020 seller behavior compresses timelines. The new “long” isn’t the old “long.”

10) True “cheap fixer-uppers” would reappear—Hit

They’re back—and in meaningful numbers compared with 2021’s vanishing act. But “cheap” is relative. With ha igher cost of capital for investors and pickier buyers, these properties need to be really attractively priced to move. Cosmetic projects at optimistic list prices simply sit.

Takeaway: The category returned, but the bar for “a deal” rose.

What the Scorecard Says About Greenville

Stack the outcomes, and a coherent picture appears. Volume cooled, prices stabilized, distress stayed muted, inventory remained tight, and time-to-sale reset to a new, post-pandemic normal. Affordability remains the pressure point—rates set the tone, wages help, and price moderation alone can’t carry it.

For consumers, that translates into clear, tactical guidance:

• Buyers: Budget for volatility and plan for staying power. If rates dip, move quickly; if they pop, don’t force it. Fixer-upper math must include realistic project costs and today’s resale cadence.

• Sellers: Price to the market you have, not the one you wish for. The first two weeks matter; take feedback seriously. Strong terms (certainty > headlines) remain compelling to buyers.

The larger lesson in Predicting 2023's Real Estate Trends is humility. Big cycles overpower neat narratives. Yet even imperfect predictions can teach you which levers actually move Greenville’s housing machine.

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Bottom Line

The year’s bold calls landed about half-and-half—plenty of wins, several clean misses, and one or two coin flips. More importantly, the pattern beneath them was consistent: demand didn’t disappear; distress didn’t surge; prices didn’t crater; inventory stayed constrained; and timelines found a new equilibrium. The market that emerged wasn’t the froth of 2021 or the fear of a 2008 rerun—it was Greenville’s 2023: tighter, slower in volume, firmer in price, and governed by a rate regime that flexed more than anyone liked.

Heading into another year, that’s the lens that helps—clear-eyed about what actually changed, practical about how to navigate it, and wary of easy narratives. Because predicting 2023’s real estate trends wasn’t about a single number; it was about learning which numbers really matter.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville