Looking Back at My 2024 Bold Predictions

There’s something oddly satisfying about holding your own predictions accountable—especially when you made them with all the confidence of a New Year’s Eve toast. In this holiday episode of Selling Greenville, the host revisited last year’s forecasts with a cup of coffee in hand and Christmas lights twinkling (because nothing says festive like admitting where you overshot on interest rates).

The episode wasn’t about bragging rights. It was about perspective—on housing trends, the broader economy, and the lessons that buyers, sellers, and agents can carry forward into 2025.

My 2024 Bold Prediction

The original 2024 outlook covered everything from Fed moves to Greenville inventory, wrapped in cautious optimism. Twelve months later, it was time to see which calls aged gracefully—and which ones didn’t.

The Fed Arrived Late to the Party

The year began with confident bets on a spring rate cut. Instead, those cuts showed up in September—apparently, the Fed runs on island time. By Christmas Eve, three cuts were finally on the books, signaling quiet confidence in the economy’s footing.

Of course, the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates (they’re more like distant cousins at family reunions). Those are tied to the bond market, which dances to its own rhythm. The lesson? Even late cuts pointed toward a steady footing rather than panic.

No Recession—Just a Soft (or Maybe No) Landing

Debate swirled over whether 2024 brought a “soft landing” or “no landing” at all. Either way, the economy stayed airborne. GDP held positive, and housing acted as a steadying force rather than a weak link. No crash landings. No parachutes needed.

Mortgage Rates Took the Scenic Route

Rates were projected to hang out in the high sixes—and technically, they did. But they made a few pit stops above 7% along the way (because apparently, predictability is overrated).

Buyers adapted like pros, leaning on buydowns, assumable loans, and every creative financing trick in the book. The unofficial motto of 2024? Make it work.

Inventory Flipped the Script

This one missed the mark. Predictions called for a tight supply, but Greenville’s market had other plans. By midyear, inventory hit its highest level since 2015.

Suddenly, buyers had options—and sellers had to step up their game. Pricing and presentation mattered more than ever (no more “list it and forget it” strategy).

Pending Sales Proved Unstoppable

Even with hurricane disruptions, pending sales kept climbing all four quarters. Apparently, Upstate buyers don’t scare easily—or melt in the rain.

Sure, some deals unraveled due to financing or inspections, but the message was clear: resilience wins. Those who stayed patient and flexible crossed the finish line.

Days on Market Stayed Snappy

The forecast was for homes to move in under 60 days—and it held true. The longest average? 57 days in February. Most months hovered closer to the low 50s. Blink, and a listing could vanish.

Even with affordability challenges, demand in Greenville refused to back down.

Closings and Multifamily Kept Things Interesting

Single-family closings dipped about 1%, just shy of the expected slight rise. The miss was small but meaningful—a reminder that borrowing costs still shape the pace of the market.

Multifamily, however, delivered right on cue. Smaller developments—duplexes, triplexes, and the like—helped fill Greenville’s “missing middle” (because even housing likes a Goldilocks balance).

Foreclosures and Prices Stayed Grounded

Foreclosures ticked up slightly but stayed well below pre-pandemic levels—and when they did appear, they vanished fast (like free donuts at an open house).

Median prices rose about 1%, not the 3–6% that was forecast. Storms, higher rates, and election-year jitters all played their part. For buyers, stability was a win. For sellers, it meant getting strategic instead of nostalgic.

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Bottom Line

The episode “Looking Back at My 2024 Bold Predictions” wasn’t just a scorecard—it was a reality check. 2024 brought surprises, resilience, and plenty of teachable moments (because every forecast deserves a sequel—and sometimes the sequel has better plot twists).

The message heading into 2025? Stay humble, stay informed, and remember: even the best predictions look clearer in hindsight (kind of like realizing you should’ve bought that house last spring).

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville