Looking Back at Stan’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2023

Every new year comes with a fresh wave of optimism—and a few daring forecasts. In late 2022, Greenville real estate expert Stan McCune made ten bold predictions about what the housing market might hold in 2023. Now that the year has unfolded, it’s time to see which ones hit the mark, which missed by a mile, and which are still hanging in the balance.

If you’ve ever wondered whether the real estate crystal ball actually works, this episode of Selling Greenville might be the closest thing to finding out.

Tracking Bold Predictions for 2023 in Greenville Real Estate

When it comes to tracking bold predictions for 2023 in Greenville real estate, Stan’s list covers it all—rates, recessions, prices, affordability, inventory, and even the fate of local Realtors. As he revisits each one, a clear theme emerges: 2023 has been less about dramatic shifts and more about recalibration.

Prediction #1: Mortgage Rates Would Hit the Low or Mid-5s

Stan’s first prediction—that mortgage rates would drop to the low or mid-5s—seemed optimistic at the time. But as the year progressed, the reality proved otherwise. The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes lingered longer than expected, and while inflation cooled slightly, it wasn’t enough to drive rates down to that sweet spot.

Still, this one may simply be early. Many economists now predict that 2024 could bring the return of 5% rates—assuming the much-discussed “mild recession” materializes. (Think of it as the real estate version of a diet that starts… next Monday.)

Prediction #2: A Mild Recession and Fewer Closings

Stan didn’t just anticipate a slowdown—he called the exact flavor of it. His prediction that the U.S. would see a mild recession accompanied by a 10–15% drop in closings hit almost perfectly. Early 2023 saw closings dip sharply (by about 30% in January) before stabilizing in spring.

Economists, Fed officials, and nearly every housing report have since echoed what Stan forecasted months ahead: a mild, manageable slowdown rather than a crash.

Prediction #3: Median Prices Would Stabilize, Not Decline

This one was spot on. Median home prices in Greenville have held steady—rising slightly, but far from the double-digit surges of 2021–2022. Prices didn’t collapse; they simply took a breather.

While some headlines have fixated on “declines,” those were largely based on average prices, not medians (and anyone who’s taken a stats class knows the difference matters). As Stan noted, “stabilization” doesn’t sound thrilling—but after years of rollercoaster appreciation, it’s exactly what the market needed.

Prediction #4: Average Prices Would Drop

If Prediction #3 was the calm, this one was the storm. Stan correctly anticipated that average home prices would fall year-over-year—thanks largely to fewer luxury listings and high-end closings.

In March 2023, Greenville officially recorded its first average price dip in years (guess prices wanted a spring break and took a little “fall”). Not because homes lost value across the board, but because the higher-end properties stopped trading hands as frequently.

(Think of it like fewer Lamborghinis selling, not cheaper Hondas.)

Prediction #5: National Foreclosure Rates Would Stay at Record Lows

Another win. Despite online chatter about a “wave of foreclosures,” the data says otherwise. National foreclosure rates remain near historic lows, and Greenville mirrors that trend.

Stan’s reasoning holds up: strong homeowner equity, conservative lending practices, and a steady job market have kept distressed sales minimal. Even if foreclosures tick up slightly, they’re rising from an all-time low—so the headlines sound scarier than the reality.

Prediction #6: Greenville Would See Its First Boost in Affordability Since 2011

This one’s a bit trickier. Stan expected Greenville’s housing affordability index to finally rise after more than a decade of decline. While mortgage rates didn’t drop as much as hoped, wages have increased modestly, and home price growth has slowed.

Still, the affordability index slipped from 101 to 98 by midyear—meaning the average household still can’t quite afford the average home. It’s not a total miss, though. If rates cool even slightly and income growth continues, this prediction could still land before the year’s end. (It’s a “wait and see” situation—like wondering if the last cookie will still be there when you get back to the kitchen.)

Prediction #7: Realtor Turnover Would Exceed 50%

Few predictions hit this close to home—literally. Stan expected massive agent attrition as the market cooled, and that’s exactly what happened. Across Greenville (and much of the U.S.), agents who entered the field during the boom years found 2023 far less forgiving.

With closings down, competition up, and marketing budgets tightening, many have exited the industry altogether. Those who remain are doubling down on relationships, resilience, and realistic expectations.

Prediction #8: Total Inventory Would Stay Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Another forecast that proved right. Inventory remains below pre-2020 levels—and that’s not changing anytime soon. Homeowners with 3% mortgage rates are staying put, leading to what Stan calls the “lock-in effect.”

Even though demand has softened slightly, it hasn’t fallen enough to offset the shortage. As Stan put it, “Buyers have realized rates aren’t dropping anytime soon, and sellers aren’t rushing to list. The result? A market that’s stuck in low gear but still moving.”

Prediction #9: Days on Market Would Reach Their Highest Level Since 2016

Close, but no cigar. Days on market did rise, but not as dramatically as expected. The number plateaued around 58—just shy of the 70-day mark Stan had predicted.

He expected more stale listings to drag up the average, but low overall inventory kept the market moving faster than forecasted. Simply put: even when buyers hesitate, there aren’t enough homes sitting idle to slow things down significantly.

Prediction #10: Cheap Fixer-Uppers Would Reappear

Finally, a crowd favorite. After years of vanishing affordable homes, Stan predicted that cheap fixer-uppers would start to resurface. And indeed, a few have crept back into the market.

We’re not talking about a flood—more like a drip. But seeing $100,000 listings in Greenville again feels almost nostalgic. Investors and first-time buyers willing to roll up their sleeves are finding new opportunities, though the “good ones” disappear quickly.

In a market short on options, even a dated kitchen starts to look charming. (Wallpaper is retro now, right?)

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Bottom Line

Out of ten bold predictions, most of Stan’s landed with remarkable accuracy. Mortgage rates didn’t quite dip as low as hoped, and affordability remains elusive—but on balance, his 2023 outlook held strong.

Greenville’s housing market has proven more resilient than many expected. Prices stabilized, foreclosures stayed low, and buyers adjusted to new norms. The year wasn’t defined by chaos or collapse—it was defined by correction.

In the end, Stan’s boldest prediction may have been the most accurate one of all: that Greenville’s market would find its balance again.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville