Market stats—What happened last month, and what does it mean?

Greenville’s housing conversation often swings between “it’s hot” and “it’s not,” but last month’s numbers tell a more nuanced story. The latest release from the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors (covering August, with September observations woven in from on-the-ground activity) paints a picture of a market that’s steady on prices, softer on demand, and gradually adding inventory—right as seasonality starts to assert itself.

Greenville Market Stats: What happened last month

Greenville Market Stats: If anyone’s looking for an easy headline, “mixed but manageable” is the closest fit. The Greenville market stats for what happened last month break down like this:

• New listings surprised to the upside. August posted ~1,900 new listings, a stronger tally than many expected—even though that’s still a 4.3% decline year over year. This year’s listing pattern has bounced more than usual (up in March, down in April, up in May, etc.), suggesting sellers are undecided and timing-sensitive rather than moving in lockstep with a typical seasonal curve.

• Pending sales remain the soft spot. The most recent month’s pending count always posts low initially and gets revised later, but even allowing for the usual revision (August showed 851 on first print; it will likely land closer to 1,250–1,300), the trend has been lower year over year for most months. Expect some chance of friendlier comparisons late in Q4 simply because last year’s November–December was exceptionally slow.

• Closed sales cooled, but not dramatically. August recorded 1,425 closed sales, a 9% year-over-year decrease. Month-to-month, closings often bump in August as households pull moves forward before fall routines kick in, so the mix of a monthly rise and annual decline is right in character for this stage of 2023.

• Days on market nudged up. After dipping into the upper 30s this summer, DOM returned to ~41 in August. In past cycles, 50–60 days felt normal. Today, anything approaching 50 would likely “feel” slow because demand is more rate-sensitive and buyers are choosier.

• Prices: steady, seasonal, and still near the summer high. The median sales price came in at $312,690, up 0.8% year over year. This year’s peak of $320,000 (seen in June and July) has started its usual late-year drift lower. Whether the median dips under $300,000 this winter is the stat to watch. Last December printed $295,000; holding above that would confirm 2023 as a modest-appreciation year.

The average price—more sensitive to upper-end activity—registered $378,789 (+2.2% YoY)

• List-to-sale held firm. Sellers who transact are still close to their last asking price. Percent of list received: ~98.7%, roughly in line with recent months. Note: this metric uses the most recent list price and doesn’t include concessions—so frequent price chops don’t show up here, and buyer credits aren’t reflected.

• Affordability ticked up… a bit. The Housing Affordability Index moved from 84 to 86 month-to-month (still well below last year’s 101). That improvement was mainly seasonal rather than structural; when rates firm up, this index tends to slip.

• Inventory is grinding higher. The early August read overstated the total, but the direction is clear: from ~2,900 in April to ~3,254 in July, with August likely somewhere in the mid-3,000s once finalized. More choices are appearing, even if not all of them are turnkey.

• Months of supply remain low—just less low. The first pass showed 3.1 months, but given how this stat is calculated (and how preliminary the inputs were), reality sits closer to ~2.7–2.8 months. Historically, that’s still lean. If supply inches into the 4s, the market would probably “feel” very slow at current demand levels.

What the numbers mean for sellers

This isn’t the frenzy of 2021–2022. It is still technically a seller’s market, just a different flavor:

• Pricing power exists—but only with precision. The percent-of-list stat tells us buyers will pay close to asking if the property is reasonably priced against today’s comps. Overpricing and hoping rarely works in this environment; they invites weeks on market and multiple price reductions.

• Condition matters more than ever. Turnkey homes—especially at approachable price points—still move. “Fixer” listings, on the other hand, can linger. Sellers weighing “as-is” vs. light updates should remember that much of the buyer pool is payment-constrained and repair-averse right now.

• Expect a seasonal glide path. Median price has started its normal late-year softening from the summer peak. That doesn’t equal a crash; it’s the usual pattern. The strategic question is less “sell now or never” and more “what’s my timeline, and how do I price cleanly into the current buyer pool? ”

What the numbers mean for buyers

Three truths can coexist:

1. Affordability is tight.

2. Competition is milder.

3. Selection is improving.

4. There’s breathing room in negotiations. With pendings softer and DOM up, buyers have more time to analyze, and structure offers—especially on homes that have sat.

5. Seasonality helps. As median price eases off summer highs and more listings trickle in, late Q3 and Q4 often serve up the best shot at value—particularly on properties that missed their mark in June/July.

6. Be realistic, not fatalistic. The close-to-ask stat (98.7%) means massive under-ask plays tend to fail unless the listing is mispriced or stale. Where buyers are finding leverage right now: well-supported price adjustments, repair credits, or strategic concessions that don’t show up in the percent-of-list metric.

The demand puzzle: rates vs. resolve

The most rate-sensitive indicator in the pack—pending sales—has been stubbornly negative year over year, with one tiny positive blip back in April. At the time of recording (late September), mortgage rates were hovering in the mid-7s, and the 10-year Treasury yield sat at its highest mark since 2007. That helps explain why demand keeps cooling without outright collapsing.

The practical takeaway: expect a slower fourth quarter, similar in feel to last year—just not necessarily as shock-slow as late 2022, when buyers first absorbed the rapid rate reset. Many households will decide to enjoy the holidays and re-engage in the new year. Meanwhile, the market is quietly doing the work of rebalancing: a bit more inventory, slightly longer market times, and flatter prices.

Pricing: flat is a direction

Month after month in 2023, the story on prices has been “sideways with a slight upward tilt.” August’s +0.8% YoY median increase fits that theme. Two practical implications:

• For sellers: 2023 hasn’t delivered big year-over-year gains. Wins come from condition, presentation, and precise pricing—not from assuming last summer’s comp plus 5%.

• For buyers: Flat pricing plus more inventory equals optionality. It’s not bargain-basement, but it is a more thoughtful market where clean offers, flexible terms, and patience can win.

Inventory: more choices, not a glut

From spring through late summer, inventory has crept higher. The crucial nuance: most owners still have substantial equity, so they’re not being pushed into distressed territory. The rise in supply looks more like “more options” than “more foreclosures.” That difference matters. Without a wave of distress, prices are more likely to soften seasonally than slide structurally.

A quick stat-by-stat snapshot (August prints & patterns)

• New Listings: ~1,900 (-4.3% YoY); sellers indecisive, but still listing

• Pending Sales: initially 851; likely 1,250–1,300 after revision; trend still softer YoY

• Closed Sales: 1,425 (-9% YoY); seasonal month-to-month bump

• Days on Market: ~41; edging up from early-summer lows

• Median Price: $312,690 (+0.8% YoY); summer peak was $320,000

• Average Price: $378,789 (+2.2% YoY)

• % of List Received: ~98.7%; concessions not included

• Affordability Index: 86 (up from 84 MoM; down from 101 YoY)

• Inventory: trending up toward mid-3,000s; final August revision pending

• Months of Supply: likely ~2.7–2.8 after revision (first print 3.1)

Strategy notes for the months ahead

• Sellers: Lead with accuracy. If you need to sell in Q4, enter cleanly: right-sized pricing, polished presentation, and proactive communication around condition. If the plan is flexible, early spring historically offers a larger buyer pool—but pricing will still reward precision over wishful thinking.

• Buyers: Identify the properties that were missed in the summer and study their price arc. On those, thoughtful offers with credits or targeted concessions can work well. On fresh, well-priced listings, be prepared to move at a steady pace (not a sprint) and write offers that reflect both comps and the home’s condition.

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Bottom Line

Greenville’s late-summer housing narrative is neither boom nor bust. It’s a steady-priced, slower-paced market with more inventory working its way in and buyers taking their time. August’s data—new listings that surprised, pendings that lagged, a median near the peak but drifting seasonally—supports a practical conclusion:

• Sellers win with precision, not bravado.

• Buyers win with patience, not procrastination.

Keep an eye on the median through winter (does it stay above last December’s $295,000?) and on months of supply (does it inch closer to 3+?). Those two signals will tell the tale of how 2023 closes—and how 2024 begins.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville