Market Update - Greenville is Setting Records (Not All of Them Good)

Greenville’s housing story this cycle isn’t just “hot market” headlines—it’s the anatomy of a supply squeeze colliding with persistent demand. In this episode, the show walks through the Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS® (GGAR) August statistics, flags a few jaw-dropping records, and adds practical context for buyers and sellers trying to make smart moves in a lopsided season.

Greenville is Setting Records

The phrase Greenville is Setting Records isn’t hype. It’s a through-line across multiple indicators: near-record-low months of inventory (with a slight August bump), the highest percentage of list price received ever recorded locally, and price gains that pushed the median sales price past the $240,000 mark for the first time. Not all of those records are friendly to buyers or to housing affordability—and the episode is candid about both sides.

First, a quick caution about the data

GGAR releases market stats around the second week each month for the prior month, and those numbers can be revised later as more complete data flows in. Year-to-date views are often more reliable than a single month. Keep that in mind—especially with one attention-grabbing August datapoint on pending sales (more on that below).

New listings: a spring choke point, then uneven relief

• Spring slide: April, May, and June suffered notable drops in new listings during the peak COVID uncertainty.

• July breather: July 2020 eked out a +2.2% year-over-year bump.

• August give-back: August 2020 dipped about –5.4% versus August 2019 (subject to later revision).

Despite the wild spring, the 12-month average of new listings is only –1.5% versus the previous 12-month period—a smaller decline than the spring panic might suggest. Still, in a growing metro that typically adds more listings each year, even a modest annual dip tightens the screws.

Likely driver: lifestyle flux—particularly school schedules and COVID-driven family logistics—kept would-be sellers on the sidelines.

Demand stayed busy: pending and closed sales outpace supply

• 12-month average pending sales: +7%

• 12-month average closed sales: +6.9%

That’s the mismatch in a sentence: fewer fresh listings, more buying. It’s why the market felt like a game of musical chairs all summer.

But August raises an eyebrow: the report shows pending sales –50.5% year-over-year—a number the episode treats with healthy skepticism. Historically, spikes and craters of that size often get revised. If it holds, a softer fall could follow. If it’s a data blip, the beat goes on.

Months of inventory: historically low, with a small August rise

For three straight months (May–July), months of inventory hovered in the 2.6–2.9 range—extraordinary seller-market territory. In August, GGAR shows a lift to 3.4 months. That’s still tight (August 2019 was 3.6), but it hints at either a touch more supply or a touch less demand.

Translation: anything under ~4 is lean. Under 3 is “bring your best on day one.” At 3.4, buyers get an inch more breathing room—not a mile.

Prices: new highs in the middle and the mean

• Median sales price: $240,000 in August, up ~10% from $220,000 a year earlier.

• Average sales price: $290,000, up ~13.6% year-over-year from $255,000.

What’s pulling the average up faster than the median? A surge in $300,000+ activity—roughly +20% year-over-year for August—tilting the mean higher.

“Percent of list price received”: a record that matters for offers

This metric hit a local record: 98.7%. Yes, it’s imperfect (it doesn’t reflect price reductions or seller-paid concessions), but tracked over time it tells a clear story: properly priced homes are achieving essentially full ask.

Practical takeaway: buyers can’t count on haggling room. Sellers who price correctly are seeing little erosion between list and contract.

Affordability: the number that slipped under 100

Greenville’s Housing Affordability Index landed at 99—the first time on record it’s dipped below 100. By definition, that means the median household now earns less than what’s required to purchase the median-priced home at prevailing rates. It’s a symbolic line in the sand and a real pressure point for middle-income families.

Likely near-term effect: more households expand their search into less expensive, less familiar areas, rather than the handful of historically “go-to” school districts.

A real-world listing example that captures the shift

The episode recalls one listing that launched near the start of COVID and drew offers, but the best serious number arrived at about $5,000 under list. Months later, when that property returned to market, the relaunch produced multiple full-price offers—over a single Labor Day weekend. Same house. Different market temperature.

What the records mean for sellers

1. Price right, win fast. The record-high “percent of list price received” favors sellers who start at fair market value, not fantasy.

2. Presentation still matters. Clean condition and clear messaging generate quick traffic in a low-inventory window.

3. Expect intensity. When months of inventory lives between ~2.7 and 3.4, buyer urgency is real. A thoughtful plan for showings, deadlines, and response times keeps the process orderly.

What the records mean for buyers

1. Lead with strength. In a market achieving 98.7% of list on well-priced homes, “let’s test the waters” offers burn time and goodwill.

2. Be deadline-aware. When inventory is scarce, the best homes are effectively “one-weekend markets.” Have pre-approval tight and funds poised.

3. Adjust your map. If affordability is a hurdle, widen the search radius to balance price, commute, and schools.

4. Prepare for multiple offers. Terms (timelines, contingencies, clarity) can be as decisive as price when a seller weighs two close contracts.

What to watch next

• Pending-sales revisions. If August’s large reported decline gets updated upward, expect the status quo to continue: tight supply, firm pricing. If it holds, fall could feel less frantic.

• School schedules and workplace patterns. More normalcy often unlocks more listings—and more buyer mobility.

• Affordability trendline. If the index stays under 100, expect demand to migrate toward emerging, more affordable sub-markets.

The bottom line on records: promise and pressure

Yes, Greenville is Setting Records. For sellers, it means speed and strong nets when homes are priced and packaged well. For buyers, it means compressing timelines, tightening terms, and confronting affordability math that just got tougher. The smallest shift in months of inventory (from ~2.7 to 3.4) doesn’t flip the script—but it may soften the edges. Keep an eye on pending-sales revisions; they’ll tell the next chapter.

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Bottom Line

Greenville’s latest data paints a market still ruled by scarcity: fewer listings on a 12-month view, more closed and pending sales on average, and price metrics breaking into new territory. The record 98.7% list-to-sale ratio and a $240,000 median underscore sellers’ leverage; the affordability index at 99 spotlights buyers’ challenge. A small August rise in inventory to 3.4 months offers only modest relief. Until supply truly expands—or demand materially cools—winning strategies are the ones built for speed, clarity, and realistic value on both sides.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville