The RE Market is Softening, but Demand Stays Stable. For Now

The Greenville market has been moving through one of its strangest chapters yet—soft in some places, steady in others, and unpredictable enough to make even seasoned analysts blink twice. Mortgage rates remain elevated, demand is compressed, and yet…activity has refused to fall off a cliff. The data for March reveals a market that isn’t slowing down in the ways many expected, while still showing the unmistakable signs of a shifting landscape.

A softening market with demand that simply won’t roll over makes for an unusual mix. But that is exactly where things sit today.

Greenville Housing Trends: RE Market Is Softening, but Demand Stays Stable

The latest dataset from the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors provides one clear message: the RE market is softening, but demand stays stable—at least for now. New listings, pending sales, days on market, inventory, and pricing all paint a picture that is less dramatic and more nuanced than headline narratives. (Think: not quite soap opera drama, but not boring small-talk energy either.)

New Listings: Stability After Months of Volatility

New listings have stayed surprisingly steady. For months, double-digit year-over-year gains were the norm, especially as sellers finally adjusted to the reality of high mortgage rates. That momentum softened in March, ending with only a 1.5% year-over-year increase.

In other words, new listings aren’t surging, but they aren’t collapsing either. They’re simply…normal. And lately, “normal” feels like its own kind of plot twist.

The market appears to have stabilized, echoing patterns from last spring. Activity remains steady for many in the industry, even while supply and demand balance themselves in unusual ways.

Pending Sales: Finding the Floor

Pending sales data—the clearest real-time indicator of demand—suggests the market may have reached its bottom and leveled out. February landed at 1,280 pending sales, nearly identical to the same month in 2023.

Looking back to 2016 reveals a gradual climb year after year until the 2021 frenzy. Then sharp drops in 2022 and 2023 corrected the market back down to something resembling pre-pandemic levels.

Now? Pending sales are essentially flat, pointing to stable (though clearly rate-suppressed) demand.

March’s initial data appears soft, but revisions always lift that number. Still, it will almost certainly land lower than last year. The unusually strong March 2023 pending sales created a spike that now serves as a difficult comparison point.

Closed Sales: A Dip That Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story

Closed sales for March were down 3.7% year over year—1,378 compared to 1,431. But context matters: March 2023 was abnormally high and doesn’t represent a typical spring trend.

Expectations based on the pending-to-closing timeline suggest April closings may be stronger, while May and June may reflect lower pending activity from March.

Days on Market: Faster Than Expected

Perhaps the biggest curveball: homes sold faster in March than in both last month and last year.

Days on market dropped to 54, down from 58 in March 2023.

Historically, March is often the slowest month of the year. If that pattern holds, the February high of 57 days on market may stand as the highest for 2024. That would signal homes selling more quickly than expected—a strange outcome in a year marked by rate pressure.

Demand may be softening overall, but the buyers who are active are acting quickly. (Imagine picky shoppers who still sprint when they see the right house.)

Mortgage Rates: The Pressure Valve

Rates remain elevated, driven primarily by a stubborn 10-year Treasury yield. The correlation between the two remains strong:

• 10-year yield currently: 4.611

• Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year rate: 7.43%

Though this benchmark is often higher than what well-qualified buyers receive, it still reflects widespread pressure on affordability.

The most interesting dynamic? How much pent-up demand is building beneath the surface? Higher rates are holding back a wave of buyers who appear poised to return the moment rates dip meaningfully. The slightest shift downward could release a surge of activity.

Median and Average Sales Prices: Back Above $300K

After a rare dip below $300,000 last month, the median price in greater Greenville jumped back to $311,000, a 3.7% year-over-year increase.

The average price reached $369,000, up 6.5%.

Based on historical patterns, Greenville likely won’t see the median fall below $300,000 again. (Think of it like the moment someone raises the thermostat—no one’s turning it back down.)

Percent of List Price Received: Sellers Still Hold an Edge

Homes sold for 98.6% of list price, a modest but meaningful increase from last year.

Even though the market is softening around the edges, negotiation power still leans slightly toward sellers—at least for the properties priced correctly and positioned well.

Inventory and Months Supply: Rising, but Not Enough to Shift Control

Inventory jumped from 2,959 to 3,598 homes year over year—a 21.6% increase. It’s the largest leap since May of last year and pushes supply closer to pre-pandemic levels.

Even so, Greenville remains below historical norms, where inventory typically sits between 3.5 and 5 months of supply.

Current estimates point to roughly 2.8–3 months once data revisions settle. That’s softening, yes, but still a seller-leaning market overall.

Rates, Inflation, and the Bigger Picture

Much of the market’s next chapter hinges on inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Predictions of multiple rate cuts have evaporated. Some analysts now believe the Fed may not cut at all this year.

And while global events have briefly tugged mortgage rates downward, nothing sustained has appeared yet.

Still, the underlying pattern is clear: demand remains stable, inventory is rising slowly, and pricing continues to hold firm.

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Bottom Line

The Greenville housing market is softening just enough to create breathing room, but not enough to shift control entirely. Inventory is rising, days on market are dipping, buyers remain selective, and demand—despite relentless rate pressure—has refused to cave.

And as long as demand stays steady while rates stay elevated, the market will continue living in this strange in-between space: not booming, not slowing, just balancing on a very thin edge.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville