Where is the Market Trending?

Greenville’s housing story isn’t a single headline—it’s a bundle of moving parts that don’t always point in the same direction. In this episode of Selling Greenville, the focus stays tight on local numbers from the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors (GGAR) and what they tell us about the pace, pricing, and pulse of the Upstate market right now. The short version: supply dipped hard, then bounced; demand cooled; days on market climbed; prices stayed firm—especially at the higher end.

Before diving in, two quick caveats straight from the source material: (1) these observations are Greenville-specific, and (2) GGAR’s most recent pending numbers are typically revised upward a month later, so month-one pendings undercount reality. With that in mind, here’s where things stand—and where the data suggests things may be headed.

Where the Greenville market is trending now

If the question is where the Greenville market is trending now, the answer is into a slower but still price-resilient lane. New listings plunged in December, then rebounded in January; buyers wrote fewer contracts and closed fewer deals; market time stretched; and yet the median and average prices held up—buoyed by strength in the mid-to-upper price bands and a notable share of new construction.

New listings: December plunge, January rebound

• December new listings fell to a four-year low (the weakest December since 2018).

• January new listings bounced back to 1,380, a 7.5% year-over-year increase and a sharp month-over-month jump from December’s 945.

What might explain the whiplash? The episode points to a likely mix: homeowners pausing over the holidays, waiting to see where mortgage rates would settle, and then opting to list once the calendar flipped. Whether that pace sticks will depend in part on where rates head next.

Pending & closed sales: demand cooled

While January pendings will be revised, the run-up through late fall paints a consistent picture:

• Pendings ran roughly 25%–30% below prior-year levels across October–December. Expect January to land in that neighborhood once numbers are finalized.

• Closed sales followed suit:

  • December closed sales were down 24.3% YoY.

  • January closed sales fell 31.2% YoY to 767 (vs. 1,115 in January 2022)—the lowest January since 2019.

Translation: the market is contracting in volume even as inventory creeps higher. Fewer deals mean a tougher landscape for agents and a more selective environment for buyers and sellers.

Days on market: the clock keeps ticking

• Days on Market (DOM) climbed to 49 in January, up 58.1% from 31 a year earlier.

A big driver here: properties that were overpriced for today’s conditions sat, grew stale, and then finally got absorbed—dragging the average higher. Expect DOM to keep drifting up as aged listings clear.

Prices: firmer than the headlines suggest

Despite slower sales and longer market time, prices didn’t cave:

• Median sales price rose 7% YoY to $299,540 (from $280,000).

• Average sales price jumped 11.6% YoY to $353,876.

Two notes of context:

1. Median price is not a pure “appreciation” metric; it’s influenced by what price points are selling.

2. January saw more upper-end activity, which helped lift both median and average readings.

“Percent of list price received”: down from the frenzy

• Sellers, on average, received 97.7% of the last list price (before considering any seller-paid concessions).

Pre-pandemic norms hovered near the high-97s/low-98s; during the frenzy, many homes topped 100% with zero concessions. Today, with concessions back in play (credits, closing costs), the “real” take-home can be lower than 97.7% suggests.

Inventory & the new-construction tilt

• Active inventory climbed to 3,517 in January—up from late-2022 levels, but still below pre-pandemic norms.

• A live MLS pull showed 2,719 truly active (non-contingent) residential listings at one point, and over half were new construction:

  • 1,431 of those actives were to-be-built, under construction, or new/never lived-in.

That matters because builders are driving many of the incentives (closing costs, upgrades, and richer agent payouts), while some resale sellers are slower to adapt to pricing and terms.

Months’ supply: noisier in January, but still lean

• December months’ supply came in at 2.5, down from 2.7 in November.

• January’s preliminary 2.8 reading is tied to pendings and therefore not reliable until revisions land.

Even so, supply in the mid-twos is historically tight. If rates push meaningfully higher again, months’ supply could expand; if not, it may stay lean.

Which price bands are moving?

January’s closed-sales mix skewed higher:

• $350k–$500k: +23% YoY

• $500k–$750k: +34.7% YoY

• $1M+: +25% YoY

• $750k–$1M: –4.3% YoY (a small change, about 18 fewer homes)

• Under $250k: down 30%+ (there just aren’t many of these left)

That tilt toward mid-to-upper price points helps explain the firm's median and strong average prices, even with overall volume down.

Strategy implications

For sellers

• Price to the market you’re in, not the one you remember. Overpricing leads to stale days and eventual discounts.

• Expect to negotiate structure, not just sticker. Credits and concessions are back; plan for them.

• Be patient—but not stubborn. The market will take longer than it did in 2021–2022 to deliver a solid offer.

For buyers

• Leverage the slower pace. There’s more room to negotiate closing costs, warranties, and rate buydown help, especially on spec homes.

• Move promptly on best-fit homes. Supply is up, but not abundant—and new construction is much of what’s available.

• Think long-term. Many households are buying now for life-stage reasons (space, family, breaking the rent cycle) with an eye to refinancing later.

Method notes (why some numbers “change later”)

• GGAR revises pending sales higher after the first publication, which also adjusts the months’ supply.

• Market-wide median price doesn’t equal pure appreciation; it’s influenced by what price brackets are transacting in a given month.

The demand floor

Even with rates higher and volume lower, several forces keep a base layer of demand in place locally: Greenville’s continued desirability, a larger buyer cohort hitting family-formation years, and households prioritizing lifestyle needs over perfect rates, planning to refinance when the window opens.

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Bottom Line

Volume is down, days on market are up, and yet prices remain firm—thanks in part to strength above $350k and a heavy share of new construction. Inventory is higher than late last year but still tight by historical standards, and where the Greenville market is trending now looks more like stability than a slide. In this environment, patient sellers who price to today’s reality and flexible buyers who negotiate structure over sticker are the ones getting to the closing table

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville