Market Update: The Closing Sale Plunge Has Happened

Greenville’s real estate market just hit an inflection point—and it’s not a small one. The latest data from the Greater Greenville Association of Realtors (GGAR) confirms what many have felt: the closing sale plunge has happened. But what does that actually mean for buyers, sellers, and the overall rhythm of the Upstate market? Let’s break down the numbers, patterns, and what they reveal about where the market may be heading next.

The Closing Sale Plunge Has Happened

The focus keyword, the closing sale plunge has happened, captures a dramatic shift in Greenville’s housing market—a near 20% drop in closed sales compared to last year.

As of May, closed sales were down 18.2% year over year, with pending sales (homes under contract but not yet closed) falling an eye-popping 57.4%. That’s not a typo—more than half of the potential deals in May failed to materialize compared to the same period last year.

While this might sound alarming, context matters. Much of the decline can be attributed to the unique disruptions of 2020—pandemic uncertainty, delayed listings, and tightened lending standards that squeezed out many lower-credit buyers and investors. In short, it’s a temporary freeze, not a collapse. (Think of it less as a “market crash” and more as a market timeout.)

The Dip in Listings and What It Means

Greenville saw 24.5% fewer new listings year over year in May. Homeowners, cautious about health concerns or market volatility, chose to stay put.

That decision created a ripple effect: fewer homes available, longer buyer search times, and mounting frustration among those trying to enter the market. Some would-be sellers are taking the year to renovate and plan for a stronger fall. Others have decided to ride out the storm entirely.

If you’ve noticed that Zillow searches feel repetitive lately—it’s not your imagination. Inventory has tightened dramatically, especially in the affordable range.

A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory vs. Demand

Here’s the paradox: closed sales are plunging, but home prices are rising.

The median sales price in May climbed 3.6% year over year, reaching $228,000. The 12-month median rose nearly 5% overall, proving that even in a cooler transaction climate, pricing power hasn’t vanished.

The reason? Supply and demand are still out of balance. Even with a slight rise in month-to-month inventory—now hovering around 4 months’ supply—Greenville remains solidly a seller’s market. (For context, six months of inventory marks a balanced market.)

So while transaction volume has dipped, sellers continue to hold the upper hand, particularly in well-priced listings below $300,000.

The Surprising Stability of Buyer Behavior

Despite the slowdown in sales, days on market actually decreased slightly—from 49 days in May 2019 to 48 in May 2020. That may not seem significant, but it shows that buyers who are active are moving quickly.

When homes hit the right price point, they don’t linger. In fact, most go under contract within a month and a half—proof that Greenville’s buyer pool remains strong, even if smaller than usual.

So while volume is down, urgency is up. (Translation: the serious buyers are still out there—they’re just being pickier.)

Where the Price Pressure Hits Hardest

The market pain isn’t distributed evenly. Homes under $150,000—once a hotbed for first-time buyers and investors—took the hardest hit.

Closed sales in that range dropped 25% for homes under $100,000 and 14.9% for homes under $150,000. There simply aren’t enough affordable homes left, and tighter lending rules have locked out many of the buyers who would normally scoop them up.

Meanwhile, higher-end segments (homes above $300,000) are seeing the reverse. Closed sales in that range jumped 16.9%, suggesting that well-qualified buyers with steady employment are still active and motivated.

In other words, the lower end has stalled while the upper tiers are coasting forward—proof that Greenville’s affordability gap continues to widen.

Median vs. Average: What the Prices Really Show

Let’s talk numbers. The median home price—the midpoint of all sales—rose to $228,000, while the average sale price reached $266,426, up 3.1% year over year.

The slight gap between median and average growth suggests fewer luxury transactions, but consistent appreciation across most of the market. And with sellers still receiving an average of 98.4% of their list price, Greenville’s housing values are proving resilient despite the transactional dip.

So, even as the closing sale plunge has happened, values haven’t collapsed. If anything, scarcity is keeping prices inflated.

The Inventory Puzzle

One of the more interesting twists in this data story is how inventory behaves across price points.

• Homes under $100,000: inventory down 21.9%, confirming how rare entry-level properties have become.

• $100K–$150K range: inventory up 13.6%, but from an already tiny base.

• $200K–$300K range: inventory up 21.9%, still seller-leaning.

• $300K and above: inventory up nearly 100%, the first sign of balance (or even mild buyer advantage) at the high end.

The clear takeaway: Greenville’s sub-$300K market is still starved for supply, while higher-priced homes are beginning to stack up.

The Affordability Squeeze

Perhaps the most sobering figure in the GGAR report is the Housing Affordability Index, which dropped to 104—lower than 2007 levels.

For context, affordability peaked in 2010–2011 during the post-recession slump, when the index soared into the 180s. Now, it’s back near pre-recession lows. That means the average Greenville household has far less purchasing power than a decade ago.

Combine that with stricter lending standards, and you get a market that’s increasingly tilted toward higher-income buyers.

What to Watch Next

If pending sales in May predict closed sales in June (as they typically do), we could be looking at another 50%+ decline in June closings before stabilization. However, early anecdotal signs point toward a rebound in activity heading into summer.

As agents report, showings and contracts began to surge again by late June—suggesting pent-up demand may offset part of the spring slump.

Still, inventory will remain the wild card. With fewer listings and high buyer interest, the second half of the year could tighten further, especially in the mid-range price categories.

(Think of it as musical chairs—fewer seats, same number of players.)

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Bottom Line

The data confirms it: the closing sale plunge has happened—but the story isn’t doom and gloom. It’s a market in transition.

While the number of sales has dropped sharply, prices remain strong, buyer motivation persists, and lower-tier inventory remains scarce. Sellers still hold an advantage below $300K, while buyers at the top of the market are finally gaining some leverage.

In short, Greenville’s market hasn’t fallen—it’s recalibrated. The months ahead will reveal whether this was a brief pause or the start of a longer shift. Either way, those watching closely know one thing: the Upstate housing scene is far from ordinary, and 2020 isn’t done surprising anyone yet.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville