Stan’s 2026 Bold Predictions for Greenville

New Year’s Eve brings out the crystal ball—and this year, the Greenville housing outlook arrives with equal parts optimism and caution. With some key government data delayed and broader economic signals sending mixed messages, the latest episode frames 2026 as a year to watch closely, not casually. Still, the show doesn’t shy away from specifics. It lays out a trackable set of calls on rates, prices, inventory, affordability, foreclosures, and which kinds of homes may win or wobble as the year unfolds.

Below is a clear, human-readable rundown—what’s being predicted, why it matters for Greenville, and the practical implications for buyers, sellers, and builders.

2026 Bold Predictions

Greenville’s housing story won’t be static in 2026—it’ll pivot around interest rates, tight-but-shifting supply, and how different property types respond. This 2026 Bold Predictions centers on measured price growth, a likely dip in mortgage rates (without a free fall), a near-term ceiling on months of supply, and an affordability pulse that just might cross back into “normal” territory, at least briefly.

Mortgage Rates: Dipping Into the Fives—But Not Too Far

The call: the average 30-year fixed will touch the fives at some point in 2026 (per Mortgage News Daily tracking), but won’t drop below 5.65%. The expectation is for rates to live in the sixes most of the year, with a window where they break the 6% ceiling and land in the high-5% range. With late-2025 levels hovering around the mid-6s, that kind of move would feel like relief—but not a return to ultralows.

What it means: Payments ease a notch when rates start with a five, buyer urgency perks up, and well-priced listings see stronger traffic. But this isn’t a wholesale reset. Planning decisions should assume high-5s to low-6s—at best.

Prices: A Return to “Normal” Growth

Greenville’s median sales price is forecast to rise 2–5% in 2026. That’s not a moonshot; it’s classic, sustainable appreciation for this market. Momentum late in 2025 supports the view that prices can grind higher—even as the broader U.S. map shows a more mixed picture.

What it means: Sellers can plan around gradual gains rather than trying to time a spike. Buyers shouldn’t bank on bargains; instead, focus on value, terms, and neighborhoods with clear long-run appeal.

Inventory: Rising, But Months’ Supply Capped

Expect total inventory to increase, yet months’ supply to top out near 4.7 months (after routine data revisions). At some point in 2026, year-over-year inventory is projected to decline—a notable pivot after years of steady increases.

What it means: Conditions may feel looser than the tightest moments of recent years, but not loose enough to flip the market. Sellers still have leverage on well-presented homes; buyers get a bit more choice and a little more time—but not a blank check.

Policy Watch: Short-Term Rental Scrutiny

Greenville County is expected to publicly discuss—and possibly propose—restrictions and/or taxes on short-term rentals (think Airbnb/VRBO). A formal study is already underway, and the show’s stance is blunt: studies rarely end by declaring “no action needed.”

What it means: Short-term hosts should pay attention to council agendas and prepare for potential changes in 2026, from licensing and taxes to outright limits in certain areas. If STR income is central to a deal pencil, build a safety margin.

Adjustable-Rate Mortgages: A Wider Gap Ahead

Look for the spread between a 5-year ARM and the 30-year fixed to exceed 1.0 percentage point at some point this year. Rate cuts that flow more quickly into short-term benchmarks can push ARM pricing down faster than fixed rates.

What it means: If the spread widens as predicted, ARMs will get louder in buyer conversations. They’re not for everyone—budget for resets and understand the timeline—but the math could become compelling for certain horizons.

Distress: Still a Non-Story

No meaningful uptick in foreclosures or short sales is anticipated. In 2025, those combined sales represented roughly a fraction of a percent of the market; the expectation for 2026 is to remain very low (within about 10% of last year’s already-small count).

What it means: Without distress inventory, price declines rarely gain traction. That supports the 2–5% appreciation call and keeps the market oriented around regular resale and new-build competition.

Affordability: A Brief Return to 100

The Housing Affordability Index is expected to touch 100—even if only for a month or two. A small rate dip plus income growth could do it.

What it means: “100” signals that a median household can afford a median-priced home. Even a short visit matters: it boosts buyer sentiment and can unlock fence-sitters who were waiting for a nudge.

New Homes vs. Resale: Builders Still Bargaining

A notable reversal that began earlier persists: new construction remains cheaper than existing homes for much of 2026. Builders continue to compete—with each other and with the resale market—using pricing and concessions.

What it means: Buyers intrigued by warranties, fresh systems, and incentives will keep looking hard at new builds. Resale sellers must stage and price with precision to beat a polished, incentive-heavy alternative.

Showings Until Pending: Expect More Traffic Before Offers

Plan on eight or more showings on average before a typical home goes under contract (up from roughly seven through most of 2025).

What it means: More showings often parallel a firmer market tone—sellers should be ready for heavier foot traffic and keep homes “show-ready.” Buyers should expect competition to remain situational but real, especially on well-priced listings.

Bedrooms: Twos Slip, Fours Rise

Another sharp call: two-bedroom homes are expected to decline in median price, while four-bedroom homes are projected to rise more than 4% in 2026. Three-bedroom homes should continue higher, though without a firm number pinned.

What it means: Product-market fit matters. Larger households—and work-from-home realities—continue to favor space. Investors and move-up buyers may recalibrate toward four-bedroom options, while owners of two-bedroom properties should price with care.

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Bottom Line

The Greenville market heads into 2026 with a balanced mix of guardrails and green lights. Rates should flirt with the fives—without breaking below 5.65%—and prices look set for steady 2–5% gains. Months’ supply likely tops out near 4.7 and may retreat later as inventory growth cools. Affordability could briefly flash “normal,” foreclosures remain scarce, and builders keep pressing their advantage over resale. Expect more showings per sale, watch county conversations about short-term rentals, and note the divergence by bedroom count: fours favored, twos vulnerable. None of this screams boom or bust; it points to a market that rewards preparation, sensible pricing, and products that truly fit how people live in 2026.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville