The Market’s New Rhythm—More Listings, Faster Sales, & Real Shifts

The Upstate housing scene closed the year with momentum—and a few plot twists. November’s data showed more homes hitting the market, buyers still moving, days on market tightening (if only slightly), and prices holding their ground. In short, conditions are shifting, not stalling. And the big story behind those shifts is simple—more choices for buyers, clearer expectations for sellers, and a market learning to operate with new rules.

The Market’s New Rhythm

Call it The Market’s New Rhythm: supply rising, buyer activity steady-to-improving, and speed firming up just enough to matter. New listings climbed 19.3% year over year in November—1,872 vs. 1,569 the prior November—with roughly half of the months this year posting 20%+ gains. Some of that surge is homeowners finally deciding to move on despite rate chatter; some of it is new construction showing up in the MLS more frequently as builders work through inventory.

Pending sales are trickier. The preliminary November figure will be revised upward (as always), and recent history offers a tell: October’s pendings were first reported at 869 and later revised to 1,337, a 1% year-over-year gain from 1,324. With last November at 1,223, the current November looks poised to land within a point or two of flat, slightly up or slightly down once the final tally arrives. Big picture, though, the 12-month pace indicates more contracts this year than last.

Closed sales, the truest measure of what actually crossed the finish line, slipped in November: 1,220 vs. 1,281 a year ago (–4.8%). That pullback follows a hot September (+21%) and October (+11%), which likely “borrowed” some of November’s closings. Expect December to pop month over month, as it often does when parties push to wrap deals before year-end.

Speed, Prices, and the Subtle Signals That Matter

Days on Market (until sale) edged down year over year—from 53 to 52. It’s a small dip, but it breaks a long stretch of upward or flat comparisons. Earlier-year spikes into the 60s faded; the market keeps settling into an upper-40s/low-50s band where two months feels long, and pricing corrections happen faster.

Prices kept their footing:

• Median Sales Price: $315,000 in November (+3.3% YoY from $305,000). Aside from January, every month this year has posted a year-over-year gain, with the last three months each near or above ~3%. As mortgage rates drifted lower at points in the fall, the price floor firmed up.

• Average Sales Price: about $388,000, up 2.1% YoY. Unlike the median, the average has increased every month this year on a year-over-year basis.

Sellers are still close to the mark on final pricing. Percent of List Price Received sits at 98.2% (vs. 98.3% a year ago)—right in line with long-term norms. It’s a healthy number that implies realistic list pricing and offers that land near expectations after any reductions.

Affordability Blinks, Even as Prices Hold

The Housing Affordability Index slipped to 96 after two months at 99. Mortgage rates nudged up slightly despite central-bank headlines; bond markets set the pace for 30-year loans, and they didn’t fully echo the policy optimism. With prices firm and rates notching higher, affordability naturally ticked down.

Inventory Is Back—In a Big Way

For the first time since 2011, the snapshot of homes for sale looks truly abundant. October’s revised inventory landed at 6,096 (from an initial 6,601), a +34.1% jump over the prior year (4,547). November’s preliminary 6,393 will likely be revised into the high 5,000s—still near a ~30% year-over-year increase versus 4,409. Buyers love the options; they don’t love all the conditions. Much of what’s available needs work—aging roofs, dated systems, deferred maintenance—so the quality gap is real. Sellers who refresh, repair, and price to the moment continue to separate from the pack.

Months of Supply: Almost, But Not Quite, a Clear-Cut Buyer’s Market

Months Supply of Inventory climbed into the low 4s after revisions: October finalized at 4.2 (initially 4.7). November currently reads 4.5 but is expected to settle closer to 4.0–4.1 once the math is cleaned up. In today’s landscape—shaped by robust new construction and fewer distressed listings—the practical “buyer’s market” line is closer to 4.5 months (not the old six-month rule of thumb). Many buyers already feel buyer leverage: more selection, stronger negotiating room, and less frenzy. What’s missing is the foreclosure wave that defined past downturns; this is a tilt toward buyers without that kind of distress backdrop.

To push supply firmly above 4.5 months, demand would need to soften—think recession worries, election jitters, or broader confidence shocks. Barring that, the market seems content to hover in the “soft-leaning-buyer” zone, where preparation and pricing beat bluster.

What the Data Is Teaching Sellers (and Buyers)

For sellers:

• The window for “wishful” pricing is smaller. With 98.2% of list typically captured (after reductions), the fastest wins come from realistic list prices, clean presentation, and repaired essentials.

• Homes that linger past two months raise questions. Sellers are adjusting faster—cutting prices or pausing to improve condition—because the market itself is enforcing accountability.

For buyers:

• Inventory depth is your friend, but due diligence is your shield. More choices mean a better fit; more “as-is” listings mean inspections matter.

• Speed still counts. With days on market slightly tighter and December closings accelerating, the best homes go quickly—especially those priced right and move-in ready.

For both sides:

• Expect revisions in the near-term numbers (pendings and inventory routinely correct by several hundred units). The direction of travel—more supply than last year, modest price gains, slight tightening in time-to-contract—remains intact.

A Month-by-Month Cadence Worth Remembering

• New Listings: +19.3% YoY (1,872 vs. 1,569); about half the months this year topped 20%.

• Pending Sales: October revised to 1,337 (+1% YoY); November likely to finish very close to flat vs. 1,223 last year.

• Closed Sales: 1,220 (–4.8% YoY); strength in September/October likely pulled closings forward.

• Days on Market (until sale): 52 (down from 53)—a subtle but meaningful shift.

• Median Price: $315,000 (+3.3% YoY); sturdy late-year gains.

• Average Price: ~$388,000 (+2.1% YoY); up every month this year on a YoY basis.

• % of List Received: 98.2% (vs. 98.3%); very close to historical norms.

• Affordability Index: 96 (down from 99); slight rate pressure plus firm prices.

• Inventory: October revised to 6,096 (+34.1% YoY); November prelim 6,393 (likely ~30% YoY after revision).

• Months Supply: Finalized near 4.2 in October; November expected around 4.0–4.1 after revision—close to buyer-market territory, not fully across.

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Bottom Line

This cycle isn’t about a dramatic turn; it’s about tempo. The Market’s New Rhythm blends higher inventory with steadier demand, trims a day off time-to-contract, and keeps prices advancing—modestly but consistently. For sellers, that means condition and strategy matter more than ever. For buyers, it means leverage exists, but the best homes still draw fast attention. The Upstate is moving with purpose: more listings, faster decisions, and real shifts in how deals get done.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville