The housing affordability CRISIS. Part 2.

Greenville’s story this past year can be summed up in two lines: demand sprinted, supply jogged, and affordability got winded. Prices climbed at a pace that would make a stock trader blush, while listings thinned to levels few thought they’d ever see. The result? A market still rich with opportunity—but tougher to enter, trickier to navigate, and louder in its call for solutions that actually move the needle.

This installment revisits the same question raised before: what’s constraining affordability—and what levers realistically help? Using current, local metrics and on-the-ground observations, the episode traces where the pressure comes from (inventory, rates, and bidding wars), then zooms in on Greenville’s “affordable housing” pipeline and why good intentions often stall before shovels hit dirt.

Why the Housing Affordability Crisis Won’t Let Go

At its core, affordability bends to two forces: supply and demand. When buyers outnumber sellers, prices rise, and available homes disappear faster. Over the most recent three-month run of finalized data, Greenville’s median sales price increased roughly 10.3% to 15.7% year over year—numbers that would thrill most investors, but strain first-time buyers and renters hoping to jump in.

On the affordability index—a metric that stacks the median household income against what’s needed to qualify for a median-priced home under prevailing mortgage rates—Greenville dipped below 100 last year (100 = just enough income to qualify). In the latest published snapshot, January ticked back to 100, up from the high-90s at year-end, but still down from 115 the prior January. In plain English: a year ago, the median household had a cushion; now it’s barely breaking even.

The supply side tells the same story, but louder. Month’s supply slid to 1.9 in December—a “pinch-me” number for agents who once thought a “two” might be theoretical. In that kind of market, even well-prepared buyers run into multiple-offer gauntlets (eight offers above list before a win isn’t an edge case; it’s Tuesday). Sellers love it. Buyers grind through it. And affordability, unsurprisingly, takes the hit.

The mechanics: why “just build more” isn’t as simple as it sounds

Everyone agrees: the region needs more homes. New construction doesn’t just add doors—it unlocks movement. When a move-up buyer chooses a new build, their former home cycles back to the resale market, creating another chance for someone downstream. That ripple effect helps affordability even before prices cool.

But there’s also a distinct category of “affordable housing” that aims to sell below market to households who typically get stuck renting. In Greenville’s pipeline, those projects face a specific, frustrating loop:

• Funding is a patchwork. Federal, county, city, bank participation, advocacy groups, and developer capital all braid together to make the numbers work without compromising build quality.

• Pre-qualification hurdles slow everything. Many funding sources require income-qualified buyers to be lined up before construction. That sounds tidy on paper—until you factor in credit repair timelines, underwriting rules, and the reality that there’s usually nothing available to hold while a future buyer gets ready.

• Time keeps renters renting. By the time a buyer is mortgage-ready, the specific “affordable” unit may still be months from completion. In that gap, rent checks keep flowing out, and momentum sometimes fades.

Meanwhile, the macro need grows. A recent local analysis cited in the episode estimates Greenville is about 12,000 units short of demand, with 35,000 residents earning less than $30,513 per year—the income needed to afford the average two-bedroom rent in the county. Greenville also ranks among the top 10 U.S. metros for growth in cost-burdened renters. Translation: for a rising share of households, too much income is being swallowed by rent, leaving too little to save toward ownership.

Rates, bidding wars, and that “one more offer” mindset

Low mortgage rates created a paradox: buying power increased, but so did competition. With inventory in the ones, nearly every well-priced listing becomes a case study in game theory. Buyers bid over the list because they must; sellers set rational ask prices knowing the market will do the rest. In today’s Greenville, it’s common to see:

• Multiple offers quickly, often within days or hours

• Escalation clauses and shortened contingencies

• Buyer fatigue after a string of near-misses

It’s still a good time to buy—historically low borrowing costs don’t come around often—but it’s not a casual time to buy. Preparation (pre-approval, fast decision-making, realistic ceilings) makes the difference between watching from the sidelines and getting a set of keys.

When “affordable” isn’t affordable enough

Even with subsidies, affordable developments often land above what many households can comfortably pay. The episode points out how costs can’t simply be cut without sacrificing build integrity, so projects rely on external support. That’s where governance friction shows up: layers of rules, multiple approvers, overlapping timelines. (Too many cooks don’t just spoil the broth—they push dinner to next week.)

What happens on the ground? Not enough inventory is delivered at the price points where it’s needed most, at the speed the market requires. The gap widens. Renters pay more of their income to stay housed, which makes saving for down payments harder… and the cycle repeats.

Where the market may shift next (and what probably won’t change)

There’s a plausible scenario ahead in which mortgage rates drift up as broader conditions normalize. Higher rates can cool demand at the margins and nudge inventory back toward balance (not a buyer’s market—just less “blink, and it’s gone”). If that happens, multiple offers won’t vanish, but may look more like five bidders instead of fifteen. Prices wouldn’t collapse, but month-over-month jumps could flatten.

Even then, don’t expect a quick flip from sellers’ to buyers’ conditions. The structural shortage, the 12,000-unit gap, and a pipeline choked by complexity won’t resolve overnight. The work is both policy (reduce red tape where it meaningfully blocks delivery) and practical (keep building, especially at attainable price points).

What actually helps buyers right now

• Treat pre-approval like a ticket to the show. Without it, you’re in the parking lot listening from the car.

• Time your moves to the data. With a month’s supply at ~1.9 in the most recent reading, assume speed matters. Have signatures and funds ready.

• Consider new construction thoughtfully. It can be a pressure valve. Also, having your own representation in a builder transaction adds advocacy, clarity, and leverage where it counts.

• Expect to write multiple offers. It’s not a personal rejection; it’s the math of a tight market. Plan for persistence.

What actually helps the ecosystem

• More rooftops, period. Each new unit is a lever that loosens the whole ladder.

• Fewer friction points for affordable projects. If pre-qualification prerequisites and multi-agency approvals routinely stall delivery, refining those rules is not optional—it’s foundational.

• Clearer pathways from rent to own. Credit counseling and readiness programs are valuable; pairing them with real, reservable homes under construction shortens the dangerous gap where momentum gets lost.

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Bottom Line

Greenville’s housing affordability crisis is being squeezed from both ends: prices rose ~10–16% year over year in recent months while supply fell to 1.9 months, pushing buyers into high-velocity competition. The affordability index slid from 115 to 100 year over year, signaling a median household that now barely qualifies for a median-priced home. On the “affordable housing” front, intentions are strong, but process friction—patchwork funding, pre-qualification requirements, and layered approvals—keeps too many units from reaching the finish line. The near-term path forward isn’t magic; it’s more inventory, fewer procedural bottlenecks, and buyer readiness calibrated to a seller’s market that isn’t likely to flip anytime soon.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville