Five Things from 2020 I’m Grateful for

Some forecasts are built on vibes. This one is built on notes from a direct conversation with the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, plus fresh Greater Greenville Association of Realtors (GGAR) stats. The picture that emerges isn’t hype—it’s a grounded look at momentum, risks, and what might shape the Upstate’s housing scene in the year ahead.

Things from 2020 I’m Grateful for

Things from 2020 I’m Grateful for. The working thesis is simple: the Upstate is rebounding faster than the nation on jobs, demand remains intense, mortgage rates should stay favorable (even if they tick up), and inventory is still scarce enough to keep Greenville squarely in seller’s-market territory. Throughout, the question “what’s going to happen in Greenville in 2021?” threads through jobs data, rate trajectories, affordability pressure, and a few policy wildcards that could move the needle.

Jobs: Greenville’s bounce is ahead of the national curve

Looking back at 2020’s shock, the national jobs gap remained large late in the year. Locally, the story diverged. The Upstate—particularly greater Greenville—clawed back employment to just a whisker below pre-COVID levels on the chart shared in that economist briefing. Spartanburg lagged Greenville (given a higher share of lower-wage roles that COVID disrupted), but the broader region still outperformed the national line. Why it matters for housing: jobs buoy confidence; confidence fuels contracts.

Savings, sentiment, and the spring-loaded consumer

Another insight from the briefing: households saved more than usual in 2020, including a chunk of stimulus dollars. Some of that cash likely went to investments, but the expectation is that improved certainty (vaccines rolling out, routines normalizing) unlocks pent-up spending—housing included. If even a slice of that reserve finds its way into down payments, Greenville’s tight market could feel tighter before it feels looser.

Demand tracks rates—and rates still favor buyers

Recent history in the data is blunt: when mortgage rates rise, home purchases cool; when rates fall, sales surge. 2020 tied record-low borrowing costs to record activity, even with many would-be movers sitting out the pandemic altogether. The base case for 2021: rates drift up a bit from the floor but remain low by any historical standard—supportive enough to keep buyers in the hunt, even as monthly payments inch up from the absolute lows.

There’s a longer-term wrinkle: homeowners who locked sub-3–3.5% rates may hesitate to trade into higher mortgage costs later. That future “rate lock-in” effect won’t freeze 2021, but it’s something Greenville will feel down the road as owners weigh moves.

Foreclosures: why the risk looks contained

The economist’s chart paired two lines that rarely get shown together: soaring home values and relatively flat outstanding mortgage debt. Translation: many owners sit on a cushion—home equity—that didn’t exist in 2008–2011. Since distress tends to snowball when owners owe more than their homes are worth, today’s equity gap acts like a buffer. Could foreclosures happen? Always. But the baseline view for 2021 is that broad-based distress remains unlikely here, even if the economy hiccups.

Affordability pressure is real—and inventory is the hinge

Affordability has been squeezed hard. GGAR’s housing affordability index dipped to 97, meaning the median household income is only 97% of what’s needed to buy the median-priced home at prevailing rates—a first for Greenville since this tracking began. At the same time, days on market fell to 38 in November (the lowest on record), percent of list price received hit 98.8%, and the median sales price hovered around $243K versus $215K the prior November. Pair that with inventory in the low-twos months of supply, and you get the shape of the market: quick, competitive, tilted to sellers.

Why more building matters—and what might help

Two forces could nudge relief in 2021:

1. More permits, more starts. Nationally, permits have been trending up. Builders are still cautious (memories of 2008 die hard), but there’s evidence of renewed appetite to add supply. Locally, every start helps: when move-up buyers purchase new construction, they often list an existing (and usually more affordable) home, which creates a second-order boost to inventory.

2. Sidelined sellers re-entering. Some older owners and cautious households stayed put in 2020. As health risks recede, a modest trickle of those would-be movers could hit the market, widening options at the margins.

The headwind: lumber costs spiked amid mill slowdowns and supply chain snags, complicating budgets and timelines. There’s speculation about diversifying sources, but for now, build-to-rent remains tight.

Migration trends favor places like Greenville

With more employers embracing remote or hybrid work, proximity to a central business district matters less than it used to for many buyers. The economist’s observation: people are drifting from dense urban cores toward suburban settings—sometimes across state lines. The Upstate checks the boxes those movers want: relative affordability (even after 2020’s gains), space, and a mix of suburban and rural backdrops woven into one metro fabric. It’s one reason the question “what’s going to happen in Greenville in 2021?” keeps pointing to continued buyer demand.

Policy watch: two levers to keep an eye on

• Down-payment assistance. There’s talk of federal support aimed at helping renters become first-time buyers—potentially meaningful for entry-level demand if it materializes.

• 1031 exchanges. On the flip side, proposed changes or limits to 1031 like-kind exchanges (used by investors to defer capital gains when swapping investment properties) could dampen some investment moves if adopted.

Nothing here is settled policy; the point is that either move would ripple through strategy—one by widening the buyer pool, the other by constraining investor flexibility.

Local stats, read in plain language

• Pending and closed sales: Strong across mid-2020 into fall; November’s preliminary pending figure looked artificially low and typically gets revised the following month.

• Speed: At 38 days to accepted offer on average in November, the market is moving at a clip. Lower-priced segments move even faster.

• Pricing power: With 98.8% of the last list price received on average (and many deals effectively at or above ask once concessions are netted), sellers retain the leverage.

• Inventory: Roughly 2.x months of supply—well below the six months that mark a balanced market.

• Outlook: Without a shock, expect a seller’s market to persist into 2021. The two pressure valves are more new construction and a modest return of would-be 2020 sellers.

Practical takeaways for 2021 decisions

• Buyers: Get fully underwritten (not just pre-qualified), watch daily, and be ready to move on day one. In segments that draw multiple offers, clean terms and speed often decide outcomes more than tiny price increments.

• Sellers: Prep pays. In a fast market, the homes that still do the small things right—pricing with precision, presenting beautifully, handling repairs smartly—capture the strongest terms.

• Investors: Keep 1031 headlines on your radar; line up lenders and intermediaries early. With foreclosures unlikely to flood inventory, value still comes from diligence and speed, not distress.

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Bottom Line

If you’re asking what’s going to happen in Greenville in 2021, the most honest answer is momentum with constraints. Jobs here are healing faster than the national average. Rates should remain friendly, even if they drift up. Demand is durable—fueled by savings, remote-work migration, and a region that fits the moment. Affordability is under strain and inventory is tight, but more permits and the return of sidelined sellers could add oxygen. Barring a shock, the Upstate stays a seller’s market—one where readiness and good data separate the merely hopeful from the truly successful.

Ien Araneta

Journal & Podcast Editor | Selling Greenville